This article contains 538's best halloween story, late but still frightening.
It’s tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed…
fivethirtyeight.com
So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:
- As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote.
- More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
- Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
- While a lot of theories about why Trump can win (e.g., those about “shy” Trump voters) are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
- There is some chance that Trump could “win” illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
- There’s also some chance of a recount (about 4 percent) or an Electoral College tie (around 0.5 percent), according to our forecast.
Basically, they say 10% chance is not the same as zero. Also, a lot hinges on what happens in PA, where their model projects Trump's chances of winning at better than 10%.
View attachment 4731957
Personally, I think 538's model, while probably the best available for free on the internet, simply cannot get any better than this. So, I'm not waffling. Trump is going to lose in November. I'm saying it with my chest out.
Much does hinge on PA. Their polls close at 8pm EST. Those prone to anxiety should load up on whatever they need to keep them safe. Come to think of it, I just might take a trip to the local dispensary and pick up some potent Indica.
Come to think of it, which strain would you recommend for an evening of poll-watching. Or maybe you recommend something else?