What is not a given is who will get the Independents. Obama loses a significant amount of his support when going against Ron Paul.
Obama has lost the majority of the Independent vote, which is what put him in office to begin with. In a two candidate.party race Independents will vote Republican, hence a Republican victor. If Ron Paul runs as an Independent he will draw far more votes from the Republican candidate than from Obama resulting in the splitting of Independent support and assuring an Obama victory in a 3 candidate/party race.
Three scenarios I might suggest that might all but guarantee a Republican win.
1) Brokered convention. Winner needs Ron Paul's delegates to win. He offers him the VP or high appointments in the cabinets. Ron Paul - Head of the Fed anyone?
Ron Paul will not hold that much leverage, he will not have that type of political power, he will not have the political capital needed to do something like that. And how big of an impact would a Vice President Paul have on he nation as he travels the world representing the president at funerals and grocery store openings? Ron Paul would not be into the idea of playing the president's puppet.
2) Romney, after winning the nomination outright,is looking to hold the newly organized Ron Paul supporters and their fund raising to the GOP cause offers Ron Paul a place in his admin. This allows him to gain the support of democrat and independent voters.
For an administration to be a success it not only has to be made up of skilled people, but they have to be on the same page, they have to think alike, they have to be the type of people who can finish the sentences of others, and the president because they already think and believe the same things. The more opposing points of views or beliefs the less cohesive the administration's message and the less smoothly it operates and the less successful it will be.
In the administration of one of the Republican candidates, Ron Paul would be a dissenting point of view on many things, he would be something or a rebel or a loose cannon. In short, he would be a liability to the administration unless all he ever did was implement what he was ordered to implement. I can't see his doing that.
3) Gingrich or Santorum pick up the nomination and offer Ron Paul a place to keep the supporters on GOP ranks.
The biggest question is... How likely would it be that Ron Paul would accept the VP position? Not likely from what I can guess.
Saying the odds that Ron Paul would accept the V.P. position are slim to none would grossly be overestimating the possibility of it happening.
Maybe he makes a deal to make his son VP? It would surely be a move towards a future presidency for his son. Ron Paul's support might make a 5% difference for the GOP. Rand Paul VP and Ron Paul backing would be hard to beat. I could easily see him making a deal that would allow him to become head of treasury or control the fed in some way.
Ron Paul is not the major player of major power-broker that the Ron Paul supporters want and need to see him as being. He is only a bit player in the big picture, in the overall scheme of things.
I think the rabid Ron Paul supporters need a prescription for some reality pills, because they sure are missing the reality of all things Ron Paul related.
