Lockdowns don't work.

abandonconflict said:

6,337 new cases on Tuesday
7,468 new cases yesterday
11,525 new cases today

"flatten the curve" is not a sufficient national strategy. It's not working. If we don't do more to expose infection chains and get the spread under control, at this rate, we'll exhaust healthcare resources and worse, crush the economy, risking worsening the situation in a myriad of ways long before there's a vaccine.

If you put water on the crops, they'll grow.

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I agree, but the point you are attempting to make is that "lock downs" don't work, they do work, but at an economic cost. Every expert agrees, testing on a massive scale is required and a plan to isolate the infected, also serological tests to determine who can work again and donate plasma. Getting plasma donation up and running while we await the results of larger scale studies is essential, there is an extremely high probability it will be a successful treatment. We can tolerate a much higher hospitalisation rate with a working treatment and this one can be deployed quickly and leverage existing blood donor and plasma making infrastructures, even in a place like the philippines. If we can lower the mortality rate to flu levels and there is every possibility of doing that over the next 3 months, it will do more than any government edict to get the economy back up and running.

Abandon the situation is dynamic and there is a viable treatment option that can be scaled and deployed, we just need the testing, volunteers will not be an issue, we just need to identify them and draw off a pint. People can tolerate being sick as a dog, they can't tolerate death and policy changes depend on these factors as much as data.

DIY-HP-LED said:

the point you are attempting to make is

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That our national strategy is not working.

abandonconflict said:

That our national strategy is not working.

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What national strategy? You've got Trump and logic is not his forte? Lockdowns are a temporary strategy until you get your shit together and also can push the national reset button on the bug or at least slow it down below hospital capacity. The time bought is suppose to be spent in furious preparation and planning, that time frame looks like it might be from 60 to 90 days depending on circumstances. In Canada we are rolling out rapid PCR testing machines and will be producing them by the tens of thousands (proven tech). We will also roll out serological tests and have a large convalescent plasma study ongoing now. We are looking for a phased reopening done logically.

My heart breaks when I look at the American experience and its singular cause, he will kill many more I fear.

That really is my point and I will open up and accept that I have made this point very poorly and added in two premises that were deeply disturbing to some people even though I still stand by them. My conclusion has from the beginning been that our national strategy is not working.

First of my premises that I think people are finding disturbing: The lockdowns aren't even stopping the spread

Second of my premises that people find disturbing: We should actually care about the economy

My conclusion has not changed and what I have been trying to argue but doing poorly at explaining is that our national strategy is failing and if we keep going the way we're going without adjustments, we'll do more harm than good.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Lockdowns are a temporary strategy until you get your shit together and also can push the national reset button on the bug or at least slow it down below hospital capacity.

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It is not possible to keep the apex of the curve below the baseline of healthcare capacity and certainly not if we have to do it all the way until there's a vaccine.

Flat out impossible.

Continuing to try to do so with out drastically ramping up testing and tracing will lead to a situation where infections are out of control and there's no economy which means no capacity to even fucking feed people.

I'm trying to say that if you put water on the crops, they'll grow.

abandonconflict said:

First of my premises that I think people are finding disturbing: The lockdowns aren't even stopping the spread

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Lockdowns are slowing the spread and can only halt a high infection rate if they are 100% effective, the probability of that is zero. In the country as a whole, forget it, there are simply too many shitheads and moron red state governors. Reinfection will occur at a rapid rate from those places not adhering to the rules anyway. I don't see how America will be able to do testing or anything else with Trump incharge of the federal government, I don't believe you can wait until january either, there will be no economy left to recover. Nancy is gonna have to impeach the dumb cunt again this summer.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Lockdowns are slowing the spread

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The slowing is miniscule and the economic cost is compounding the problem. In fact, according to case spread in the last few days in NYC, it's not slowing the spread at all at least there. Furthermore, it's actually not saving lives. This is that premise that people are finding disgusting. "Flatten the curve" is the entire strategy there. I get that other places have implemented varied strategies. I'm just the messenger:

Per the city, a total of 18,551 people died of all causes between March 11 and April 13.

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Even if you revise stats and "generously attribute" deaths to covid 19, you're still left having to accept that all deaths (except traffic ralated) are way up. We need to talk about this. It needs to be discussed, with courage and integrity.

abandonconflict said:

The slowing is miniscule and the economic cost is compounding the problem. In fact, according to case spread in the last few days in NYC, it's not slowing the spread at all at least there. Furthermore, it's actually not saving lives. This is that premise that people are finding disgusting. "Flatten the curve" is the entire strategy there. I get that other places have implemented varied strategies. I'm just the messenger:


Even if you revise stats and "generously attribute" deaths to covid 19, you're still left having to accept that all deaths (except traffic ralated) are way up. We need to talk about this. It needs to be discussed, with courage and integrity.

How Many People Have Died In NYC During The COVID Pandemic?

New York City released new numbers on the COVID pandemic on Tuesday, bringing the death toll to more than 10,000. But even those new numbers don't capture the pandemic's true toll.

talkingpointsmemo.com

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With out these measures the growth rate would be exponential and without large scale testing there's no way out of the trap, even with testing the economy would be crippled for a long time. Add in an effective treatment to other reasonable measures and the picture changes a lot and the economy can be back up somewhat by fall. Remove the fear factor by lowering the mortality rate with treatment and isolating the vulnerable, then herd immunity might even be a possible strategy of desperation. People make the economy go and nobody is gonna be taking cruises for awhile and the airlines are pretty well screwed, as is tourism for this season at least (we are big on tourist here). If the fear of mortality or even ending up being ventilated is removed it will do the most to help many sectors of the economy back up and running more quickly.

I'm an optimist, it goes with the practice. There is a logical way out and we know what it is, social control measures, testing and an effective rapidly deployed treatment to dramatically decrease mortality rates and increase hospital capacity. If patients at risk for ventilation can be identified they can be treated before they require it, and be cycled out of the hospital more quickly. If an idiot like me can think of it others who are paid for it can too.

DIY-HP-LED said:

With out these measures the growth rate would be exponential

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It is exponential.

In New York, there were 328 new cases on March 12. Similar numbers to what we're seeing in lots of places now. In the following days new cases there were dozens per day and then scores per day. During that time, the curve looked exactly like it does now with tens of thousands of new cases per day.

I am saying that we will have to be EXTREMELY LUCKY if only half of the other major cities in North America have similar growth. It is exponential. It's fucking geometric.

If you put water on the crops, they'll grow.

abandonconflict said:

It is exponential.

In New York, there were 328 new cases on March 12. Similar numbers to what we're seeing in lots of places now. In the following days new cases there were dozens per day and then scores per day. During that time, the curve looked exactly like it does now with tens of thousands of new cases per day.

I am saying that we will have to be EXTREMELY LUCKY if only half of the other major cities in North America have similar growth. It is exponential. It's fucking geometric.

If you put water on the crops, they'll grow.

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Bed time on this side of the planet, have a look at this site

zeddd said:

Good luck waiting out for that vaccine. Sars1 was 17 years ago and still no vaccine as the developmental Vaxs caused pulmonary immunopathology. The time frame of a year is absurd

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Nobody is going to give a fuck about a curve in a year.

abandonconflict said:

Nobody is going to give a fuck about a curve in a year.

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have you planted a garden yet?.....this could take a while

doublejj said:

have you planted a garden yet?.....this could take a while

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I have planted entire reefs. You like air?

abandonconflict said:

I have planted entire reefs. You like air?

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I have air...you got food?

Almost every country is adopting the same or similar strategy. So what would you propose that most of the government's haven't already thought about?

doublejj said:

killing the elderly by ending the lockdown

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That's an option, not a popular one among the seniors, lol but they control most of the wealth, so....

Bignutes said:

That's an option, not a popular one among the seniors, lol but they control most of the wealth, so....

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that's what I've been trying to tell him....

Bignutes said:

Almost every country is adopting the same or similar strategy.

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No. Some of them are also exposing infection chains by conducting rigorous testing and contact tracing. There are in fact 3 countries that have done this so effectively that they have been able to keep their economies open. We need to do that shit fucking pronto.

What I am saying, if you filter out the emotional and dramatic bullshit by people like @doublejj who make no actual sense, is that it is impossible to keep the apex of "the curve" below the baseline of the healthcare capacity all the way until there's a vaccine. If we try to do it with the economy shut we will have a famine in addition to our epidemic. Furthermore, theat baseline will not only go down everytime a nurse or doctor dies, but also as the economy tanks.

You know in Vietnam the FNG's walked point because they hadn't earned the right to get out alive.......