abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
That's why 58 thousand of you died and still lost the fucking war. Your strategy fucking sucked.
Lockdowns don't work.
- Thread starter abandonconflict
- Start date
doublejj
Well-Known Member
worked for me.....
Bignutes
Well-Known Member
How does testing and tracing limit the spread, I'm missing how that works.
doublejj
Well-Known Member
the US would need to have access to 1mil tests a day just to start to think about ending the lockdown. we have done a grand total of 3mil so far. the tests wont be available in sufficient quantities for 6 months or more...
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
nonsense, furthermore, nobody is saying you have to take your old pasty ass outside.
Look, I suggest you read up before you get mixed up. Look at how South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong succeeded. Different medical systems and regional health authorities around the US are already hiring tens of thousands of people for the tracing. The entire system just like Korea's could be up and running, scaled for the US in days. It would also require bringing everything under federal leadership and invading some privacy.
Flattening the curve isn't working. That strategy means looking at the spread on a logarithmic graph. So percentage increase in cases per day. What that means is that the "curve" looked the same a month ago when it was dozens or scores of new cases per day as it does now that there are tens of thousands of new cases per day.
How Contact Tracing Works And How It Can Help Reopen The Country
It's a technique widely used in other countries to slow the spread of infection. Here's how contact tracing works — and how it can help the U.S. start to get back to normal.
www.npr.org
CDC Director: 'Very Aggressive' Contact Tracing Needed For U.S. To Return To Normal
We're in shutdown mode for now, but what comes next? Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is working on a plan to safely reopen the country.
www.npr.org
How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down
It's one of several places in Asia that did not use draconian lockdown strategies to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
www.npr.org
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Here are the obstacles:
1)Donald Trump
2)Privacy concerns regarding using smartphone data to make a covid map
3)thinking that what we're doing has a chance in hell of working
4)politicizing the crisis on both sides of the aisle
ask me and I'll gladly expound on any or all of the 4
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
2)
"They're" already spying on you. They have been for decades. It's even easier for some private companies to spy on you and sell the data than it is for "them". For example, if you leave your facebook app running in the background on your smartphone, even if you turn off the display and put it into your pocket, it's listening. It picks up the word "pizza" for example. You will see adds for Dominoes and Pizza Hut. You have likely consented to this several times in the small print of those agreements that you click on so they go away so you can scroll timelines and look at memes or w/e.
The NSA (one of the thems) also would have meta data that can map where you've been and when you've been there and populate this map with all sorts of data, like credit card purchases and private text messages. You did not consent to this. They don't care and will continue to do so.
It would actually be very straightforward for them to use data like this to expose infection chains and notify people to take the 15 minute home serological tests. Those tests can give false positives, but very rarely ever give a false negative unless the infection is so new that you have not yet produced antibodies or have some immunological disorder or somethign that would prevent you from having produced antibodies in response to infection. These tests are FDA approved and can be mass produced in the millions immediately. These are accurate enough to expose infection chains and you could then go in for one of the 3 day molecular tests like at the drive-in facitilities. They are also FDA approved and can produced several million per day with few changes made to production modes.
The apps already exist from private 3rd party companies that allow you to share a whole lot of info and receive text alerts. It would be even more straightforward if the government simply invaded your privacy openly. The electronic infrastructure for his terrifying apparatus already exists. The entire cost for purposing such a system for covid would be very low. In comparison to the stimulus, along with the cost of the closure of the economy, we're talking next to nothing, a few tens of billions of dollars, which would have the added bonus of creating jobs.
With this, we'd be able to work, go to school, have one-night stands, eat burgers inside restaurants and see physicians for health concerns unrelated to covid. It's extremely feasible and necessary. Liek I said, they're already spying on you, they might as well know if you have covid.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
3)
This is what has been deeply unpopular here. This is basically the topic of the thread. "Flatten the curve" was the slogan. The idea was, stay home, social distance, be safe, all of which are fantastic ideas that most people decided to accept willingly. That was good and they all made the right choice. However, along with this, were the societal lockdowns. Shutting down the economy. Not just canceling concerts and sporting events, which would still be necessary until there's a vaccine. On the surface, this seems like the way to go. Most of this is stuff we should continue to do willingly.
Here's the problem: Shutting down the economy just to "flatten the curve" all the way until there's a vaccine.
Let's go by the numbers. We graphed new cases per day logarithmically, in other words, we said it increased by this percentage this day, that percentage that day and so forth. From this, a graph is drawn showing a rising line representing the rate of increase in cases per day. It was argued that if we do nothing, this angle would rapidly bring the number of cases above a certain baseline which represented the capacity of the healthcare system. The strategy therefore was and still is to slow the rate such that the curve could be flattened with the apex of the parabola below that baseline. Also, that baseline could go up and down, depending on how we equip the healthcare system.
It is thought that keeping the apex of the parabola below that line would mean that there would be a flow. People would not die in horrifying rates because the system would not be overloaded. Cases would be resolved (death or recovery) as quickly as or more quickly than new cases were admitted.
Here is a simple illustration:
Here is the first problem with this. As an example, I will use New York. On March 12 there were 328 cases there. In the following several days there were dozens and then scores of new cases per day and it seemed fine. We were augmenting the healthcare capacity, getting more PPE to the city and more ventilators. Fast forward to the last couple of days. In the last 24 hours, 11,525 new cases were reported in New York. In the previous 24 hour period, 7,468 new cases were reported. In the 24 period before that 6,337 were reported. These increases have the same graphical trajectory or very near, to the dozens and then scores of new cases reported in the several days following March 12.
Yesterday, I said that we would be extremely lucky if it had flattened out then. That would mean we'd have had about 7,500 new cases per day for several days (hopefully not weeks) and then the number of new cases per day would begin to decrease. Again, if extremely lucky, it would decrease rapidly, but we'd still be looking at thousands of new cases per day for many weeks.
Now, in order for this strategy to work with no other measures implemented, we need that curve to flatten. Alas, New York reported 11,525 new cases in the last 24 hours. This is despite having one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. Now, if we're extremely lucky, it will flatten out, or maybe that's an outlier. Maybe it can flatten out soon and we'll see less than 10k new cases per day, just in New York, for weeks. I don't even believe in G-D, but I have even been praying for this. Praying and hoping for extreme luck are also terrible strategies.
In order for this strategy to have a chance of working, we need to have our healthcare system working at maximum capacity all the way until there's a vaccine. We might be able to absorb one or two more cities suffering outbreaks like that of New York but it will be very difficult and we have to get them under control pronto. And we must do this, while the economy is tanking because of the lockdowns. Now, I'm not suggesting that it is even possible, at this point to have people all go back to work in New York. It's a disaster and emergency that requires national response.
We can prevent Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta or Miami or what have you, from becoming the next New York. Many of those places are already well past where New York was on March 12. We need to do this and if we continue the way we're going, our economy will be beyond recovery. This could lead to that baseline moving way down. This could lead to a famine. This could even lead to the fall of our republic.
How would any of those prospects compound the epidemic? I don't even know. I don't want to know.
This is what has been deeply unpopular here. This is basically the topic of the thread. "Flatten the curve" was the slogan. The idea was, stay home, social distance, be safe, all of which are fantastic ideas that most people decided to accept willingly. That was good and they all made the right choice. However, along with this, were the societal lockdowns. Shutting down the economy. Not just canceling concerts and sporting events, which would still be necessary until there's a vaccine. On the surface, this seems like the way to go. Most of this is stuff we should continue to do willingly.
Here's the problem: Shutting down the economy just to "flatten the curve" all the way until there's a vaccine.
Let's go by the numbers. We graphed new cases per day logarithmically, in other words, we said it increased by this percentage this day, that percentage that day and so forth. From this, a graph is drawn showing a rising line representing the rate of increase in cases per day. It was argued that if we do nothing, this angle would rapidly bring the number of cases above a certain baseline which represented the capacity of the healthcare system. The strategy therefore was and still is to slow the rate such that the curve could be flattened with the apex of the parabola below that baseline. Also, that baseline could go up and down, depending on how we equip the healthcare system.
It is thought that keeping the apex of the parabola below that line would mean that there would be a flow. People would not die in horrifying rates because the system would not be overloaded. Cases would be resolved (death or recovery) as quickly as or more quickly than new cases were admitted.
Here is a simple illustration:
Here is the first problem with this. As an example, I will use New York. On March 12 there were 328 cases there. In the following several days there were dozens and then scores of new cases per day and it seemed fine. We were augmenting the healthcare capacity, getting more PPE to the city and more ventilators. Fast forward to the last couple of days. In the last 24 hours, 11,525 new cases were reported in New York. In the previous 24 hour period, 7,468 new cases were reported. In the 24 period before that 6,337 were reported. These increases have the same graphical trajectory or very near, to the dozens and then scores of new cases reported in the several days following March 12.
Yesterday, I said that we would be extremely lucky if it had flattened out then. That would mean we'd have had about 7,500 new cases per day for several days (hopefully not weeks) and then the number of new cases per day would begin to decrease. Again, if extremely lucky, it would decrease rapidly, but we'd still be looking at thousands of new cases per day for many weeks.
Now, in order for this strategy to work with no other measures implemented, we need that curve to flatten. Alas, New York reported 11,525 new cases in the last 24 hours. This is despite having one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. Now, if we're extremely lucky, it will flatten out, or maybe that's an outlier. Maybe it can flatten out soon and we'll see less than 10k new cases per day, just in New York, for weeks. I don't even believe in G-D, but I have even been praying for this. Praying and hoping for extreme luck are also terrible strategies.
In order for this strategy to have a chance of working, we need to have our healthcare system working at maximum capacity all the way until there's a vaccine. We might be able to absorb one or two more cities suffering outbreaks like that of New York but it will be very difficult and we have to get them under control pronto. And we must do this, while the economy is tanking because of the lockdowns. Now, I'm not suggesting that it is even possible, at this point to have people all go back to work in New York. It's a disaster and emergency that requires national response.
We can prevent Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta or Miami or what have you, from becoming the next New York. Many of those places are already well past where New York was on March 12. We need to do this and if we continue the way we're going, our economy will be beyond recovery. This could lead to that baseline moving way down. This could lead to a famine. This could even lead to the fall of our republic.
How would any of those prospects compound the epidemic? I don't even know. I don't want to know.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Abandon, here is what you are up against, I don't mean to get into guilt by association, the purpose is to illustrate how your ideas can be conflated with this utter bullshit. Reopening the economy and a Darwinian approach is being pushed by Trump and the republicans, he's even talking about illegally suspending congress now. In such times orthodoxy is being enforced on our side instinctively, it's the way we humans operate.
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Trump's big show of opening the economy will hide the real story
www.cnn.com
(CNN)President Donald Trump's make America open again campaign will deliver exactly what he wants Thursday -- a victory lap over the coronavirus pandemic that leaves the life and death decisions to others.
Even with epicenters of the virus still suffering hundreds of deaths daily, Trump says it's time to show that America is the "comeback kid" ready to unleash a miracle economic rebirth.
The President plans to release new guidelines that tell states they can lift stay-at-home orders and ease social distancing at the discretion of their governors even before a May 1 deadline.
This ought to be a major and unifying marker in the fight against the disease that has now killed more than 30,000 Americans and has clamped economic blight on the nation.
more...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump's big show of opening the economy will hide the real story
Trump's big show of opening the economy will hide the real story
President Donald Trump's make America open again campaign will deliver exactly what he wants Thursday -- a victory lap over the coronavirus pandemic that leaves the life and death decisions to others.
www.cnn.com
(CNN)President Donald Trump's make America open again campaign will deliver exactly what he wants Thursday -- a victory lap over the coronavirus pandemic that leaves the life and death decisions to others.
Even with epicenters of the virus still suffering hundreds of deaths daily, Trump says it's time to show that America is the "comeback kid" ready to unleash a miracle economic rebirth.
The President plans to release new guidelines that tell states they can lift stay-at-home orders and ease social distancing at the discretion of their governors even before a May 1 deadline.
This ought to be a major and unifying marker in the fight against the disease that has now killed more than 30,000 Americans and has clamped economic blight on the nation.
more...
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
If you put water on the crops, they'll grow.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Donald is using fertilizer too...
Kassiopeija
Well-Known Member
well then see from the skyrocketing graph how effective social distancing was... or notAbandon, here is what you are up against, I don't mean to get into guilt by association, the purpose is to illustrate how your ideas can be conflated with this utter bullshit. Reopening the economy and a Darwinian approach is being pushed by Trump and the republicans, he's even talking about illegally suspending congress now. In such times orthodoxy is being enforced on our side instinctively, it's the way we humans operate.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump's big show of opening the economy will hide the real story
Trump's big show of opening the economy will hide the real story
President Donald Trump's make America open again campaign will deliver exactly what he wants Thursday -- a victory lap over the coronavirus pandemic that leaves the life and death decisions to others.
(CNN)President Donald Trump's make America open again campaign will deliver exactly what he wants Thursday -- a victory lap over the coronavirus pandemic that leaves the life and death decisions to others.
Even with epicenters of the virus still suffering hundreds of deaths daily, Trump says it's time to show that America is the "comeback kid" ready to unleash a miracle economic rebirth.
The President plans to release new guidelines that tell states they can lift stay-at-home orders and ease social distancing at the discretion of their governors even before a May 1 deadline.
This ought to be a major and unifying marker in the fight against the disease that has now killed more than 30,000 Americans and has clamped economic blight on the nation.
more...
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
We are not having this debate in Canada, we have a plan and responsible government that follows expert scientific advice. Trump has put America into a deadly trap and there appears to be few ways out, the options are being constrained by every day of delay. A stark binary choice is being imposed on America by callus incompetence and dereliction of duty, it does not have to be this way at all. America is capable of amazing feats under competent leadership, this has been repeated proven historically, but the required sense of unity of purpose came at the price of suppressing minority populations. 42% approve of Trump's job performance and he will get at least 38% of the popular vote in november no matter how big the disaster he foments. With such a large percentage of the population so disconnected from reality and many hostile to government measures, no national containment policy is possible.
I believe the push by certain elites to reopen the economy is the result of plasma transfusion technology that they will have available to themselves. I'm sure they are quietly buying convalescent plasma now for their own use, once their personal terror is addressed, greed will come to the fore, for they are creatures of habit, as are most people.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
11,525 new cases in NY up from 7,468 yesterday. Should arrest them all for clearly breaking the lockdown
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Fine them a pint or two of plasma when they recover! Ya pay in blood...
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Are ya sure you wanna share a bed with these people? I'm aware of the subtleties of your argument, others, not so much...
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Trump Set To Announce Reopening Guidelines | Morning Joe | MSNBC
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Trump Set To Announce Reopening Guidelines | Morning Joe | MSNBC
OLD MOTHER SATIVA
Well-Known Member
99% of Canadians are like you
all they do and have done for the last few years is talk about trump..really..
that is ALL they do
months ago all you were talking about was impeachment
next:
myopinion
trump is doing a great job..but with you people it doesn't matter what he does ..
what that guy and usa has done insuch a short time is nothing short of amazing
yes i understand you all have trump derangement syndrome and it is NOT going away..and no vaccine will fix that
ps
how could Canadians know what is going on in Canada?
Planes from China still arrive daily with ZERO temperature checks..
canada is not cool..they are not ahead of anyone..they were and still are behind..
they are generally "nice..tolerant..if you have the same opinion pc" people who ignore canadian politics and embrace pathetic talk show
hosts and hollywood movie star's opinions..and the bought off cbc
this is a new virus..its gotta go around
a small % have it go to the lungs and then is really bad for them..
almost 90% have one or more underlying problems already
from what i can see...there will be no vaccine..and if it comes ..the virus willhave alredy gone through the population
and vaccines do not work well on older people[like me]..and we are the ones besides the plethora of over weight diabetes people
that frequent our fast food society
from what i can see we need the herd immunity to do its thing..and it will ..what goes around comes around
and it is and it will
i am fine playing the social distance game
wait too long and you gotta know we will have worse troubles than this china virus
they never shut down the world before...i believe the repercussions are way worse
ok now get back to doing what Canadians do best
.
.........bashing Trump for everything
