What has Trump done to this country?

Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I go to their site and found the voodoo behind the models interesting, I thought there would be more statistics and less assumptions! Nate knows what he is talking about, he called it last time and seems to have some insights. The difference this time is Trump and covid, it is a novel situation and the models may break down, it's still art as much as science.
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voodoo? No, Nate sweats the details and he can give good reasons for the way his model works. It's not like he's predicting spring using a groundhog. If you can listen to Nate, he's obsessed with looking for reasons to prove the model is wrong.

Covid is a novel situation? There isn't a Covid widget in his model, just polling data which accounts for public sentiment, not Covid. A surpise vaccine that Fauci endorses would be a positive factor for Trump but that's why there are fudge factors in his model to based upon time away from the election.

538's model is completely reasonable to inflate Trump's chances of winning due to unknown factors that can come up between now and Nov 3.
For example, Comey's midnight memo just a few days before the 2016 election that heaped doubt upon his earlier findings in Clinton's e-mail scandal. No one outside of the FBI could have predicted that. That right there is the time factor playing out in real life.

I think a problem with the perception of polling and forecasting is the way people take continuous data and turn it into a binomial outcome. For example, 538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning the election in 2016. It was exactly correct because Trump just barely won. However, what is it we hear today? "Trump was projected to lose but he won". People don't understand what "30% chance" means. They just turn it into a binomial "win" or "lose" in their heads.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
voodoo? No, Nate sweats the details and he can give good reasons for the way his model works. It's not like he's predicting spring using a groundhog. If you can listen to Nate, he's obsessed with looking for reasons to prove the model is wrong.

Covid is a novel situation? There isn't a Covid widget in his model, just polling data which accounts for public sentiment, not Covid. A surpise vaccine that Fauci endorses would be a positive factor for Trump but that's why there are fudge factors in his model to based upon time away from the election.

538's model is completely reasonable to inflate Trump's chances of winning due to unknown factors that can come up between now and Nov 3.
For example, Comey's midnight memo just a few days before the 2016 election that heaped doubt upon his earlier findings in Clinton's e-mail scandal. No one outside of the FBI could have predicted that. That right there is the time factor playing out in real life.

I think a problem with the perception of polling and forecasting is the way people take continuous data and turn it into a binomial outcome. For example, 538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning the election in 2016. It was exactly correct because Trump just barely won. However, what is it we hear today? "Trump was projected to lose but he won". People don't understand what "30% chance" means. They just turn it into a binomial "win" or "lose" in their heads.
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I'm just calling it that in jest because of it's complexity and nuance, though there do seem to be some key assumptions along the chain of formulation. I dunno how they factored in covid, or Trump, or all the voting changes to accommodate covid and thus expanded voting opportunities. A hundred million Americans don't vote regularly and I've seen some pretty high estimates of expected turn out. A good example is the large number of newly registered voters in Texas, the election changes and the court mandated ballot drop off boxes. Will this increase Hispanic or minority voting? Texas is close and those are a lot of wild cards besides covid to throw at the models.
 
Stone_Free

Stone_Free

Well-Known Member
As a Brit I'm not sure how the Electoral College works but could that throw a spanner in the works? I believe it did to get Trump elected, I'm sure I read that anyway. I'm wondering what might happen if the same situation occurs again and Trump gets reelected even though he might not have actually won.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Stone_Free said:
As a Brit I'm not sure how the Electoral College works but could that throw a spanner in the works? I believe it did to get Trump elected, I'm sure I read that anyway. I'm wondering what might happen if the same situation occurs again and Trump gets reelected even though he might not have actually won.
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Very improbable, the original purpose of the electoral college was to keep people like Trump out of office! If ya got to have it, appoint shrinks only as electors!
 
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MickFoster

MickFoster

Well-Known Member
Stone_Free said:
As a Brit I'm not sure how the Electoral College works but could that throw a spanner in the woerks? I believe it did to get Trump elected, I'm sure I read that anyway. I'm wondering what might happen if the same situation occurs again and Trump gets reelected even though he might not have actually won.
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I don't think it will happen this time. There's no chance that Biden will lose any of the states that Clinton won in 2016.......he doesn't even need Florida to win. He'll easily win back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania which will put him over the top. Florida, Arizona, and possibly Ohio are just icing on the cake.
 
hanimmal

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Stone_Free said:
As a Brit I'm not sure how the Electoral College works but could that throw a spanner in the works? I believe it did to get Trump elected, I'm sure I read that anyway. I'm wondering what might happen if the same situation occurs again and Trump gets reelected even though he might not have actually won.
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Basically each state has a proportional amount of 'electoral votes' based on the states population. That way each person is equal power in their vote, but each state votes for a winner, so (generally) all the votes of a state will go to the person who won the most votes in that state.

Unfortunately the problem comes in the super large states like Texas, Georgia, and Florida they make it hard for the poor minority neighborhoods to vote, so those states have a huge amount of electoral votes (high population), but give the majority of the power of their votes to the (historically) white people who don't have to wait for hours in line to vote.

This is why we have been having such a problem with the popular vote of our country going Democratic while the electoral college votes might still go for the other person.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Stone_Free said:
As a Brit I'm not sure how the Electoral College works but could that throw a spanner in the works? I believe it did to get Trump elected, I'm sure I read that anyway. I'm wondering what might happen if the same situation occurs again and Trump gets reelected even though he might not have actually won.
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Yep, the Electoral College skews the power of each vote toward votes from smaller states. If the election were based upon a simple national majority, Trump would have zero chance. As it is, he has small chance. In 2016, Trump lost the national vote but won due to that same EC's skewed effect. It's a relic of a compromise made at the very beginning of this Republic and I'm all for removing the EC from the equation.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
Yep, the Electoral College skews the power of each vote toward votes from smaller states. If the election were based upon a simple national majority, Trump would have zero chance. As it is, he has small chance. In 2016, Trump lost the national vote but won due to that same EC's skewed effect. It's a relic of a compromise made at the very beginning of this Republic and I'm all for removing the EC from the equation.
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Popular vote for POTUS is one constitutional amendment that might pass the congress and states next year or after 2022, when the democrats level the playing field. Next year is redistricting and I'm interested in state races too, this election is critical. If it wasn't for Trump, their rat fucking plan of gerrymandering would have been complete, this screws everything up for them. This could also mean statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, 4 more senate seats and few more in the house, not to mention ECVs. Exploitation and there is much more that can be done. ;)
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Popular vote for POTUS is one constitutional amendment that might pass the congress and states next year or after 2022, when the democrats level the playing field. Next year is redistricting and I'm interested in state races too, this election is critical. If it wasn't for Trump, their rat fucking plan of gerrymandering would have been complete, this screws everything up for them. This could also mean statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, 4 more senate seats and few more in the house, not to mention ECVs. Exploitation and there is much more that can be done. ;)
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Boatguy said:
That will never happen. After multiple wins without the popular vote, republicans know its their only handhold on power.
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Doesn't require an amendment. Doesn't even require all states to agree. The National Popular Vote is supported by Democrats and Republicans alike. Just their leaders oppose it.

www.nationalpopularvote.com

Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote

One-page explanation (PDF) The National Popular Vote law will guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It will apply the one-person-one-vote principle to presidential elections, and make every vote equal. Why a...
www.nationalpopularvote.com www.nationalpopularvote.com
 
Jimdamick

Jimdamick

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I go to their site and found the voodoo behind the models interesting, I thought there would be more statistics and less assumptions! Nate knows what he is talking about, he called it last time and seems to have some insights. The difference this time is Trump and covid, it is a novel situation and the models may break down, it's still art as much as science.
Click to expand...
Trump is fucking finished.
He knows it, the GOP knows it, I know it, my Republican neighbor who has a Biden sign on his front lawn knows it & anyone with a semblance of fucking intelligence also knows it.
Problem now is curtailing/stopping the carnage that is the result of Trump's actions, such as his selection of Justice Amy ( the Handmaiden :) ) Barrett to replace RBG on the Supreme Court.
That's all that really counts now, is damage control
 
Boatguy

Boatguy

Well-Known Member
Jimdamick said:
Trump is fucking finished.
He knows it, the GOP knows it, I know it, my Republican neighbor who has a Biden sign on his front lawn knows it & anyone with a semblance of fucking intelligence also knows it.
Problem now is curtailing/stopping the carnage that is the result of Trump's actions, such as his selection Justice Amy( the Handmaiden :) ) Barrett to replace RBG on the Supreme Court.
That's all that really counts now, is damage control
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Funny that they say there is no time or chance of another covid relief deal, but they will do whatever they can to get Barrett in there. Real troopers for the people... Incompetent doesnt even come close describing this behavior. It is like they think we will forget what they are doing. Or not doing
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Boatguy said:
Like most things the majority of Americans agree upon.
Just a couple, term limits, end of lifetime healthcare for them. No pay raises till they stop acting like children, and actually do the job we elected them for... I could go on and on.
They will never vote on any of those things for obvious reasons
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lulz

I don't know about term limits for congressmen. I think that's all about powerful people wanting to get rid of my congressmen, who I like very much. In my district, we will vote DeFazio out if we don't like him. Same with Merkely and Wyden. I think they are all pretty good and don't want them to be removed from office by an arbitrary term limit.

BTW, they support eliminating the EC. I also don't think they act like children. I also think we have the congress we elected. We are very divided in this country and so is our congress.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Jimdamick said:
Trump is fucking finished.
He knows it, the GOP knows it, I know it, my Republican neighbor who has a Biden sign on his front lawn knows it & anyone with a semblance of fucking intelligence also knows it.
Problem now is curtailing/stopping the carnage that is the result of Trump's actions, such as his selection of Justice Amy ( the Handmaiden :) ) Barrett to replace RBG on the Supreme Court.
That's all that really counts now, is damage control
Click to expand...
How about statehood for Puerto Rico and DC, 4 more senate seats and house seats plus more ECV's? How about the down ballot state races, redistricting is next year. Thomas is 70 and Alito is 68, covid is running ramped in DC...
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Boatguy said:
Funny that they say there is no time or chance of another covid relief deal, but they will do whatever they can to get Barrett in there. Real troopers for the people... Incompetent doesnt even come close describing this behavior. It is like they think we will forget what they are doing. Or not doing
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They know they are losing the majority in the senate, this is a suicide bomb before they leave. This will cost them senate seats, fucking with this while the folks back home starve, are evicted and the economy crashes, will not be popular.
 
Jimdamick

Jimdamick

Well-Known Member
Boatguy said:
Like most things the majority of Americans agree upon.
Just a couple, term limits, end of lifetime healthcare for them. No pay raises till they stop acting like children, and actually do the job we elected them for... I could go on and on.
They will never vote on any of those things for obvious reasons
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I don't agree with term limits.
What is the advanatage?
I personally want someone in that same seat as long as possible, becoming knowledgeable.
Term limits are the vote
Simple
 
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