War

Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
How's this for a message from NATO: Any Russian soldier who defects to the west or surrenders to the Ukrainians will be offer asylum in the west, paroled and paid (in the traditional military sense). I wonder how many hungry conscripts between a rock and a hard place will take them up on it? Once mad Vlad is gone they can go back home if they want or emigrate to the west. :lol:

The details of the offer can be spelled out on the leaflets distributed to the Ukrainians and of course it will be online too. The back is a right of free passage to the west (unarmed) and a promise of good treatment until they get to the west. It would be a major humiliation to Putin all these young lads on parole in western Europe, being tourists and checking into police stations every now and again. Most are 19 year old conscripts and they can also call their mothers who will be worried about them.
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i like it but is that something you heard, or your own idea?
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I wouldn't want to be a Russian flying a helicopter or giving close air support in Ukraine, These things can reach up to 24,000 feet, but are usually used under 12,000 feet. Irregulars can be trained in their use in less than an hour, they can even use this video, which I imagine also comes in Ukrainian! Negating tactically air support and mobility over the battle field is important, these things in the cities make a big difference and they help blunt air attack. They recently had some supplied by NATO, but Joe just opened the flood gates, ditto for anti tank missiles. These are very good modern weapons which changed the nature of land warfare and give infantry and irregulars a lot of power on the modern battle field. The few the Ukrainians had blunted and slowed the Russian advance and the Ukrainians are now getting a Helluva lot more of them. They are nowhere near dividing up the country, or taking the cities after a week, the west of the country is not occupied and the border with Poland is open.
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How To Fire A Stinger Missile • FIM-92 Stinger In Action
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
zeddd said:
It’s likely that many will defect when they realise Putin is killing kids but it probably won’t make any difference as Vlad has bigger targets in mind. He has few troops but many nukes.
I knew it wouldn’t take long to get to: glass every Russian city as @Roger A. Shrubber implied
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i have absolutely nothing against the common working russian people...if we can get at putin without hurting anyone, i'm for it...but i'm for whatever it takes to take putin out as a threat, forever...if that ends up requiring a tactical nuke on the kremlin, then so be it, and i'll deal with the karmic bad blood from most muscovites getting caught up in it, too
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
printer said:
Eritrea Seeks to Evade Sanctions Through Russia, China Alliances
Mere weeks after the January 05, 2022, engagement that took place with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who commiserated with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki about international sanction against his government, on February 07, 2022, Isais has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and African countries, Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Deputy Foreign Minister. There were few details concerning the substance of this Eritrea-Russia meeting, but it was reported that the parties decried “external interferences and illicit sanctions,”. The Eritrean Research Institute for Policy and Strategy (ERIPS) believes these alliances with China and now Russia will not benefit the Eritrean people, countries in the region or American interests.

In an executive order issued in September 2021, President Biden warned of sanctions against parties involved in the fighting in Ethiopia and the Treasury Department has levied sanctions against the Eritrean Defense Forces and the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) stating “Eritrea’s destabilizing presence in Ethiopia is prolonging the conflict, posing a significant obstacle to a cessation of hostilities, and threatening the integrity of the Ethiopian state,”. The Eritrean regime’s attempt to evade the sanctions seems to be taking a sharp turn for the worse.

It is well known that the regime of Isaias Afwerki has consistently sought the friendship and support of authoritarian regimes, such as the Middle Eastern countries to hold onto power and to extend his influence with military adventures in neighboring countries. President Afwerki has now signed a new strategic but uneven relationship with the People’s Republic of China, and is working on one with Russia as well, undoubtedly as leverage to evade the sanctions and to take advantage of the rapidly deteriorating situation in the region where the Eritrean people’s, regional and American national interests are at stake.

With the potential of establishing political and military relationship with Russia, it appears that the Eritrean government is intent on expanding its military adventurism in Tigray and elsewhere in East Africa. This regime is known for instigating conflicts with neighboring countries (Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Yemen) since the early 1990s. The Isaias regime has regularly supported armed opposition groups against governments with disputes, including the militant Islamist al-Shabaab in Somalia, and these wars have led to the unnecessary loss of lives and instability of the region. The addition of heavy Russian weaponry will only exacerbate an already tense relationship between Eritrea and its neighbors. Absent an arms embargo on Eritrea and Ethiopia, the situation will only worsen, incurring an even greater humanitarian crisis and political instability in the region.

As part of Russia’s grand strategy of establishing political, economic, and military relationships with many African nations, Moscow has increased its activities in the African arms market. “Arms sales are a central element of Russia’s foreign policy and are closely controlled by the government to advance economic and strategic objectives. Russian arms sales provide an important source of hard currency, promote Russia’s defense and political relations with other countries, and support important domestic industries,” stated a 2021 report by the Congressional Research Service. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as of 2020, Russia accounts for 49% of arms imports to Africa. The National Interest magazine also reported that Russia has sold arms to at least twenty-one African states, including such weapons as T-90SA main battle tanks (MBT’s), modernized BMPT-72 Terminator 2 infantry fighting vehicles, Su-34 strike fighters and Su-35 air superiority jets. As of July 2021, Rosoboronexport, the Russian state-tun arms exporting company, had signed over a dozen deals worth billions of dollars for the supply of Russian military products.

According to Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, through Russian support of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar with snipers, Mig-29 and Su-24 fighter jets, SA-22 surface-to-air missile, anti-aircraft systems, hundreds of flights delivering military logistics since 2019 and an estimated 1,200 Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, Russia is managing to carve out a region bordering NATO’s southern flank. This could well be a preview of what is in store for the Greater Horn of Africa through the Eritrea-Russia alliance.

“Libya provides a vignette of how Russia pursues its strategic goals in Africa: expanding geopolitical influence through low-cost ventures that hold economic windfalls for Moscow and President Vladimir Putin’s close associates. In this way, Russia’s strategy in Africa is both opportunistic and calculating. It is opportunistic in that it is willing to take risks and quickly deploy mercenary forces to crisis contexts when the opening presents itself, similar to what Moscow did in Syria. It is calculating in that it aims to expand Russia’s power projection including over strategic chokeholds in the eastern Mediterranean and Suez Canal that could affect NATO force deployments in times of crisis,” stated an article by the George C. Marshall Center.

As ERIPS has stated earlier, it is critical for the U.S. administration and policymakers across the political spectrum to give particular attention to China’s economic, political, and military influence in Africa and particularly to the strategic nations in the Red Sea trade route. Eritrea has two ports: Massawa and Assab. China has a strategy seeking control of ports around the world, and these Red Sea ports are especially critical for the world economy. However, Russian interest in Africa also includes expanding geopolitical influences, weakening global democracies, holding strategic maritime chokeholds, and meeting its dire need for hard currency.

Despite claims to uphold and respect democracy, freedom, justice, and fairness, countries such as China, Russia and Eritrea are among world’s worst human rights violators. Having China and now Russia as strategic partners enables the Afwerki regime to access not only Russia’s voluminous supplies of military hardware and equipment, but also Chinese IT for intelligence and security, military technology, and weaponry. Thus, in ERIPS’ view, these alliances are solely aimed to strengthen the regime’s grip onto power and continue to cause pain and suffering on the Eritrean people. Moreover, these agreements are designed to allow the Eritrean regime to withstand sanctions and carry on with impunity its belligerence in the ongoing Ethiopian civil war that is destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
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every one of these nations that voted no, and every one that abstained...we'll remember you...when it came time to stand up and say enough, you sat silently...the next time you cry out for help...we'll sit silently.
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Roger A. Shrubber said:
every one of these nations that voted no, and every one that abstained...we'll remember you...when it came time to stand up and say enough, you sat silently...the next time you cry out for help...we'll sit silently.
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It’s no good without the laugh. That hackles-raising bwahahaa.
 
CunningCanuk

CunningCanuk

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Hey these 19 year old boys aren't Afghans, they are young white Christian males, the usual resistance to immigration and refugees will be largely silent in Europe and America. I don't think many will end up staying anyway, I don't think Vlad is going to survive this, then they will go home. This gets them out of the war, is great PR and humiliates Vlad. Particularly when others online see them living the good life in the west while waiting out the war. Every weapon they give up goes to a Ukrainian.
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If that happens, Russian soldiers who defected won’t have a family to return to.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
CunningCanuk said:
If that happens, Russian soldiers who defected won’t have a family to return to.
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We can say it is a humanitarian effort to save the lives of these kids who the Ukrainians capture, they are pissed and can't feed prisoners, going to the west would involve signing a parole contract and perhaps living in Germany or France for a spell. They would be happy and free, on European TV news too! Why they even get paid...
 
CunningCanuk

CunningCanuk

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
We can say it is a humanitarian effort to save the lives of these kids who the Ukrainians capture, they are pissed and can't feed prisoners, going to the west would involve signing a parole contract and perhaps living in Germany or France for a spell. They would be happy and free, on European TV news too! Why they even get paid...
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I love my family so I wouldn’t defect.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
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I've heard some GQP types talk as if the sanctions carve-out for energy imports from Russia is a scandal and a shame. I don't think those critics understand what sanctions are supposed to do. Objectives are many but the main one is to degrade Russia's ability to wage war in the 21st century. Constraints on sanctions are also many but two stand out: keep economic recovery from the pandemic on track and don't hurt the little guys in Russia.

So, this bit about sanctions carve-outs for Russian energy imports into the US and EU. Doing that reduces immediate effects of trade sanctions on the Russian economy. Basically, 70% of Russian exports will proceed. A large fraction of the remaining exports are wiped out but not a devastating blow to either Russia or the West. Europe continues get the energy supplies they need and the US gets the benefit of diversification that the relatively small amount of energy from Russia provides. For now.

The Biden administration and EU can do more later. This gives leverage in negotiation. If Vlaldimir Putin becomes more like Vlad the Impaler then stiffer sanctions can be applied. This is how to conduct negotiation with a psychopath. Never bargain from weakness. Take action and hold options in reserve to let them know there will be consequences for their actions.
 
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