War

BudmanTX

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
he should keep the factory in china and fucking live in it, go run his goddamn mouth nonstop about their policies and see how well he does
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honestly i don't want Elon in Texas, he's got a Telsa factory in Austin, he's building a battery factory in Corpus, he's also got that space port here, and he wants to build a city somewhere.....the guy is like a gnat around here, and the only reason he's here is because we don't have an income tax......
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I'll take his word for it...


Russia is ‘getting hammered’: Top US general on Bakhmut battle

263,349 views Mar 29, 2023 #CNN #News
There are roughly 6,000 Wagner group mercenaries fighting in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told US lawmakers at a House Armed Services Committee hearing. #CNN #News
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Putin fails as his offensive is 'chewed up' by Ukraine

100,626 views Mar 29, 2023 #timesradio
"The Russians are still on the offensive. They can still be chewed up, and at the time in place of the Ukrainians choosing, they can go on the offensive."

Putin's failure in Bakhmut has ruined Russia's defensive capabilities, Chip Chapman tells #timesradio
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
The best option is #1, for Ukraine to win and join NATO and the EU....This would bring Russia to it's knees and the Russian federation would dissolve and China and the US would divvy up the spoils.
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I agree that this is existential for Russia.

I don't see Russia dissolving immediately just because Ukraine prevails. Putin represents a shadowy cabal that controls everything through replaceable oligarchs and gangsters. They have enough resources to continue to exist as an isolated pariah state indefinitely. Even if they become a bunker state like North Korea, I don't see other powers simply divvying anytime soon.

I don't see unanimous acceptance of Ukraine into NATO. I don't eeen see them accepted into EU. I do see Ukraine having plenty of strength to push the orcs back to pre-2022 borders. They won't take Crimea without significantly increased Western backing.

I do see Russia deploying tactical nukes into the Ukranian territories that it has annexed rather than losing them. I absolutely do see the use of nukes against any massive invasion of Russian territory and the threat of such being a sufficiently potent deterrent.

We're really just debating how far Putin will be pushed before he launches nukes into The Ukraine. He is absolutely losing and he absolutely can't topple Ukraine by conventional military means.

But the way to achieve the toppling of the Russian federation is not through Ukrainian gains. It's through continued failure and sanctions. So I agree that the goal is the end of Putin's regime and the rise of a more friendly Russian gov't. But the way to get there is to continue the proxy war.

doublejj said:
Arms aid to Ukraine is being massively expanded
Berlin wants to multiply spending on military aid to Ukraine in the coming years - from three to more than 15 billion euros today.
www.spiegel.de

(S+) Deutsche Waffenhilfe für die Ukraine wird massiv ausgeweitet

Berlin will die Ausgaben für Militärhilfe an die Ukraine in den kommenden Jahren vervielfachen – von heute drei auf mehr als 15 Milliarden Euro.
www.spiegel.de www.spiegel.de
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"In the coming years"
 
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DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I agree that this is existential for Russia.

I don't see Russia dissolving immediately just because Ukraine prevails. Putin represents a shadowy cabal that controls everything through replaceable oligarchs and gangsters. They have enough resources to continue to exist as an isolated pariah state indefinitely. Even if they become a bunker state like North Korea, I don't see other powers simply divvying anytime soon.

I don't see unanimous acceptance of Ukraine into NATO. I don't eeen see them accepted into EU. I do see Ukraine having plenty of strength to push the orcs back to pre-2022 borders. They won't take Crimea without significantly increased Western backing.

I do see Russia deploying tactical nukes into the Ukranian territories that it has annexed rather than losing them. I absolutely do see the use of nukes against any massive invasion of Russian territory and the threat of such being a sufficiently potent deterrent.

We're really just debating how far Putin will be pushed before he launches nukes into The Ukraine. He is absolutely losing and he absolutely can't topple Ukraine by conventional military means.

But the way to achieve the toppling of the Russian federation is not through Ukrainian gains. It's through continued failure and sanctions. So I agree that the goal is the end of Putin's regime and the rise of a more friendly Russian gov't. But the way to get there is to continue the proxy war.
Click to expand...
I agree about it not dissolving any time soon, but Vlad just lost influence in central Asia with the stans, all former Soviet Republics with China taking over with soft power and security assurances. What we have here is the eventual clash of two empires, so we must speak in terms of Czars and emperors and that kind of dynamic. Russia's links to the east are weak and tenuous the trans-Siberian railway crosses through Kazakhstan and they just took over the Russian space launch center for nonpayment of bills!

There are many vulnerable rail bridges crossing many rivers in the wastes of Siberia blowing up a few would cut Moscow off from the east for months or longer. The automotive sector is getting decimated through sanctions and the air transport system is deteriorating too. There might be many groups, some clandestinely supported, who would like to destroy a few of those bridges and there are several autonomous republics in the east.

I think when the Ukrainians move on the Russians with offensive operations when they and the ground are ready, the Russian army will collapse in most of Ukraine after a blitzkrieg(s) by the Ukrainians. All the conditions are there, poor morale, training, leadership, equipment, logistics and communications that can be spoofed. We will see, but I think the Ukrainians can clear the mainland of Russians by fall and have Crimea largely cut off. Whatever Vlad has in Crimea will be trapped there and unable to participate in the mainland battles.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'll take his word for it...


Russia is ‘getting hammered’: Top US general on Bakhmut battle

263,349 views Mar 29, 2023 #CNN #News
There are roughly 6,000 Wagner group mercenaries fighting in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told US lawmakers at a House Armed Services Committee hearing. #CNN #News
Click to expand...
I agree with Milley's assessments. However, I don't think anyone wants to just be direct and admit that peace between The Ukraine and Russia is absolutely not in the interests of Western powers at this time. They won't ask him questions that will lead to that statement and even the fucking republicans will generally avoid pointing that out even if it gives them a strong talking point against the current administration.

DIY-HP-LED said:
I agree about it not dissolving any time soon, but Vlad just lost influence in central Asia with the stans, all former Soviet Republics with China taking over with soft power and security assurances. What we have here is the eventual clash of two empires, so we must speak in terms of Czars and emperors and that kind of dynamic. Russia's links to the east are weak and tenuous the trans-Siberian railway crosses through Kazakhstan and they just took over the Russian space launch center for nonpayment of bills!

There are many vulnerable rail bridges crossing many rivers in the wastes of Siberia blowing up a few would cut Moscow off from the east for months or longer. The automotive sector is getting decimated through sanctions and the air transport system is deteriorating too. There might be many groups, some clandestinely supported, who would like to destroy a few of those bridges and there are several autonomous republics in the east.

I think when the Ukrainians move on the Russians with offensive operations when they and the ground are ready, the Russian army will collapse in most of Ukraine after a blitzkrieg(s) by the Ukrainians. All the conditions are there, poor morale, training, leadership, equipment, logistics and communications that can be spoofed. We will see, but I think the Ukrainians can clear the mainland of Russians by fall and have Crimea largely cut off. Whatever Vlad has in Crimea will be trapped there and unable to participate in the mainland battles.
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The West can back those indepedence movements in the Steppe.
 
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doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I agree that this is existential for Russia.

I don't see Russia dissolving immediately just because Ukraine prevails. Putin represents a shadowy cabal that controls everything through replaceable oligarchs and gangsters. They have enough resources to continue to exist as an isolated pariah state indefinitely. Even if they become a bunker state like North Korea, I don't see other powers simply divvying anytime soon.

I don't see unanimous acceptance of Ukraine into NATO. I don't eeen see them accepted into EU. I do see Ukraine having plenty of strength to push the orcs back to pre-2022 borders. They won't take Crimea without significantly increased Western backing.

I do see Russia deploying tactical nukes into the Ukranian territories that it has annexed rather than losing them. I absolutely do see the use of nukes against any massive invasion of Russian territory and the threat of such being a sufficiently potent deterrent.

We're really just debating how far Putin will be pushed before he launches nukes into The Ukraine. He is absolutely losing and he absolutely can't topple Ukraine by conventional military means.

But the way to achieve the toppling of the Russian federation is not through Ukrainian gains. It's through continued failure and sanctions. So I agree that the goal is the end of Putin's regime and the rise of a more friendly Russian gov't. But the way to get there is to continue the proxy war.


"In the coming years"
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It would be in Poland & Germany and others best interest to not let Ukraine fail. As long as US Republicans don't get in the way Muscovy has little chance. The US annual Defense budget of $800+b. Compared to Muscovy's entire budget is $500b. The US stayed in a war in Afghanistan for 20 years, and this was US soldiers fighting & dying. Best to let Ukraine bring Muscovy to her knees. China will swoop in and pick the carcass clean.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I agree that this is existential for Russia.

I don't see Russia dissolving immediately just because Ukraine prevails. Putin represents a shadowy cabal that controls everything through replaceable oligarchs and gangsters. They have enough resources to continue to exist as an isolated pariah state indefinitely. Even if they become a bunker state like North Korea, I don't see other powers simply divvying anytime soon.

I don't see unanimous acceptance of Ukraine into NATO. I don't eeen see them accepted into EU. I do see Ukraine having plenty of strength to push the orcs back to pre-2022 borders. They won't take Crimea without significantly increased Western backing.

I do see Russia deploying tactical nukes into the Ukranian territories that it has annexed rather than losing them. I absolutely do see the use of nukes against any massive invasion of Russian territory and the threat of such being a sufficiently potent deterrent.

We're really just debating how far Putin will be pushed before he launches nukes into The Ukraine. He is absolutely losing and he absolutely can't topple Ukraine by conventional military means.

But the way to achieve the toppling of the Russian federation is not through Ukrainian gains. It's through continued failure and sanctions. So I agree that the goal is the end of Putin's regime and the rise of a more friendly Russian gov't. But the way to get there is to continue the proxy war.


"In the coming years"
Click to expand...
I don't see NATO membership for Ukraine, they are just too useful as an independent entity, every time you wanna make Vlad howl, who ya gonna call? EU membership might be a different matter, Ukraine has large proven reserves of natural gas and petroleum among other resources, not to mention agriculture. The Russians, Zelensky, his anti-corruption party, the exit of the Russians from the economy with their oligarchs and pending EU membership will do much to clean up corruption. They will also end up with most of that seized Russian money and there could be up to a trillion of that if they went hunting seriously and included currency reserves. An international legal process will be needed to get currency reserves, but the crimes against humanity , war crimes and charter violations should take care of that along with reparations. Ukraine has enough natural gas particularly off Crimea to keep Europe and in particular Germany going for a couple of decades at least or until alternatives are found. That is why I think Ukraine will end up in the EU fairly quicky, they have a lot to offer.

The war will move on to other places like Belarus before it's over in Ukraine I figure, that is the next of Vlad's dominos to fall with regime change revolution or coup. The objective here is to destroy the Russian economy and military and their ability to project power onto their smaller neighbors, Austn and Blinken said it earlier in the war, before Joe told them to STFU about it! Joe is gonna strangle Vlad while Ukraine bleeds him white, nice and slow so as not to spook or nuke, he just fades away. His new master emperor Xi would be most displeased about him using nukes in Ukraine...
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
The West can back those indepedence movements in the Steppe.
Click to expand...
Vlad opened up his whole empire to clandestine operations and Ukrainian intelligence is acting as a dating service for western intelligence agencies and Vlad's many enemies fighting the Russians in Ukraine, prime recruiting ground.
 
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