War

Fogdog said:

It this foot dragging or confidence that Russia has lost the initiative and Ukraine can take its time to prepare to mount a more complete offensive? Perhaps ending this mess? This is what the Allies did when they invaded France on D Day. By the end of 1943, the Nazis had lost the initiative and could only wait for the Allies to strike at their positions in France. The Allies geared up and when all was ready, moved at the time and place of their choosing. Or is it WW1 all over again?

U.S. officials advise Ukraine to wait on offensive, official says

The unnamed official said the United States was holding fast to its decision not to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine at this time, and that a major counter-offensive against Russian forces should wait until weaponry and training are in place.

www.reuters.com

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DIY-HP-LED said:

Offensive operations are dependent on weather and only Russians are stupid enough to attack in mud season and are paying a dear price for it in the east. If the ground freezes enough we could see a limited Ukrainian offensive to position themselves for spring. If they struck south to the sea of Azov and took out the Kerch bridge dividing the Russians and cutting those off in the south west and Crimea from resupply and support.

Other than that, wear them down daily as they are doing now and cause them to absorb large numbers of casualties, while keeping yours to a minimum. Wait until spring and then overwhelm their weakened and depleted army with overwhelming force. If they do this, it will probably cause Russia to strike in the north, ready or not. However new tanks are only required for offensive operations, mines, artillery and Javelins do fine in defense, not many tanks required. Tanks and APCs are needed to take ground, along with a lot of artillery and other support, so wait for spring to kick them out.

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U.S. announces $3.8 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, European allies

The aid package, the 29th such tranche, brings U.S. commitment to Ukraine's fight to about $24.9 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration.

www.cnbc.com

Fogdog said:

Unlike you, I'm not an armchair general who talks about strategy and tactics, I'm just noting that the US is advising Ukraine to:

"U.S. talks with Ukraine on any counter-offensive have been in the context of ensuring the Ukrainians devote enough time first to training on the latest weaponry provided by the United States, the official said."

How long before the "latest weaponry" arrives? I'm assuming the Patriot missile batteries are not part of the defensive so it's the time needed to train for and deploy the Bradleys they are talking about. The rest of the package listed in the following article won't take as time to deploy or train for.

U.S. announces $3.8 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, European allies

The aid package, the 29th such tranche, brings U.S. commitment to Ukraine's fight to about $24.9 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration.

www.cnbc.com

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said it would take “some time” for the vehicles to get to Ukraine.

They say training time isn't long and can probably be done outside of Ukraine using Bradley's that are already in Europe.

I don't know what "some time" means. A month? Three months? March-April is the muddy period that makes an offensive difficult. So perhaps the US is talking about delaying a February offensive that Ukraine might have been planning and wait until May.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

There is much we do not know, like how much armor and reserves the Ukrainians have and their intentions. However it is wise to listen to Uncle Joe about matters of intelligence and preparedness. If they can, I think they will try to position themselves for a spring offensive with a limited winter one. However the Russians are doing a pretty good job of wearing themselves down before spring, if they keep up these stupid offensives using dumb tactics on dug in positions.

As for a time frame, the ground needs to thaw and dry out and that depends on the spring weather, so I expect fighting all summer. The Russian army could crack though, or parts of it, so you never know when and how it might end for Russia in Ukraine.

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DIY-HP-LED said:

There is much we do not know, like how much armor and reserves the Ukrainians have and their intentions. However it is wise to listen to Uncle Joe about matters of intelligence and preparedness. If they can, I think they will try to position themselves for a spring offensive with a limited winter one. However the Russians are doing a pretty good job of wearing themselves down before spring, if they keep up these stupid offensives using dumb tactics on dug in positions.

As for a time frame, the ground needs to thaw and dry out and that depends on the spring weather, so I expect fighting all summer. The Russian army could crack though, or parts of it, so you never know when and how it might end for Russia in Ukraine.

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Fogdog said:

I'm not an armchair general who talks about strategy and tactics, I'm just noting that the US is advising Ukraine to:

"U.S. talks with Ukraine on any counter-offensive have been in the context of ensuring the Ukrainians devote enough time first to training on the latest weaponry provided by the United States, the official said."

How long before the "latest weaponry" arrives? I'm assuming the Patriot missile batteries are not part of the defensive so it's the time needed to train for and deploy the Bradleys they are talking about. The rest of the package listed in the following article won't take as time to deploy or train for.

U.S. announces $3.8 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, European allies

The aid package, the 29th such tranche, brings U.S. commitment to Ukraine's fight to about $24.9 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration.

www.cnbc.com

U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said it would take “some time” for the vehicles to get to Ukraine.

They say training time isn't long and can probably be done outside of Ukraine using Bradley's that are already in Europe.

I don't know what "some time" means. A month? Three months? March-April is the muddy period that makes an offensive difficult. So perhaps the US is talking about delaying a February offensive that Ukraine might have been planning and wait until May.

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cannabineer said:

I suggest that so much time has passed that the generation with direct experience is passed on, and to the general populace the event is something from history class. The attendant guilt is a shimmery translucent thing on the trailing horizon.

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CCGNZ said:

I'd suggest otherwise ,I've just watched a documentary on the Canadian band Rush while trimming my "work" ,and Geddy Lee explained to Dan Rather his parent's history as Holacaust survivors,what a deep and touching story of love overcoming cruelty on a epic scale he related, and being the deep intellectual soul that he is I'm sure he considers it his deepest duty to keep their memory and history alive to his children. The Civil war still haunts the US and that predates WW2 by about 60 yrs, and the darkness and deprevity of Nazi Germany (the industrial extermination of a race of people) eclipses that of the Civil war IMO. I do believe that time heals,but this is still a issue in the German psyche,it's just not that long ago.

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Roger A. Shrubber said:

while there are some people who have a memory, most people don't...and to be honest with you, much of what they're teaching kids today shouldn't be remembered, as most of it is garbage, especially in red states with governors like desantis or abbott. "Black people benefitted from slavery, they got a free boat ride to America."..."the American Indians were a degenerate people, wasting their resources, until the white settlers moved in and put the land to good use."....that is what kids in republican run states are learning...
but the point is that most people have short memories, and those short memories are easily distorted by the constant repetition lies from outside sources.

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CCGNZ said:

I'd suggest otherwise ,I've just watched a documentary on the Canadian band Rush while trimming my "work" ,and Geddy Lee explained to Dan Rather his parent's history as Holacaust survivors,what a deep and touching story of love overcoming cruelty on a epic scale he related, and being the deep intellectual soul that he is I'm sure he considers it his deepest duty to keep their memory and history alive to his children. The Civil war still haunts the US and that predates WW2 by about 60 yrs, and the darkness and deprevity of Nazi Germany (the industrial extermination of a race of people) eclipses that of the Civil war IMO. I do believe that time heals,but this is still a issue in the German psyche,it's just not that long ago.

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CCGNZ said:

I certainly can dig Scholz's reluctance in seeing German armor smashing through eastern Europe,and there is some German in my ancestry though only 25% and as an adoptee I have no idea what that encompasses. I can however say that Germany bares a guilt that can't simply be forgotten,we can't be hypocritical here,If Germany were to shed its guilt we'd be in their face about the past and if they pay homage to it we say get over it. Scholz should take a median position and let all countries possessing Leopard tanks turn them over while keeping Germany's stock (which includes the most advanced models)out of the war. I've seen estimates that there are almost 2K Leopard tanks in the inventories of European countries excepting Germany's arsena

I believe that Germany will need another century to really shed its guilt,it's so vile and lurid that I can understand their reluctance w/that history as a burden. They have become a leader in Europe by emphasizing their good qualities while locking up their bad,if the Germans had the largest army in Europe you can be damn sure their would be many uneasy nations in that neighborhood. So their way forward has been to be a complimentary nation in military affairs, the "happy medium" is for them to loosen the export controls on the Leopard tanks and let those European countries eager to give them proceed w/ that.

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Roger A. Shrubber said:

not that there aren't any other threats in Europe, but really, who do you have to defend yourselves against, EXCEPT russia?
If Ukraine is keeping them busy, every country in Europe that isn't already fighting with each other should be dumping every spare peice of equipment they have into this fight. Ukraine is proxy for the entire democratic world, they're doing a damned fine job, and they deserve the support of every country that ever has or ever will face the threat of russian aggression.

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Sativied said:

And for Poland. Poland, who seems so cool threatening to be defiant against the Germans by sending the tanks without their permission. Poland, which would have its own thread if it weren’t for Putin invading Ukraine.

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Sativied said:

Maybe I’m reading too much into or just misinterpreting the bold part but it appears you know exactly what it encompasses in this context. Specifically by the use of the words ’guilt’ and ‘shed its guilt’.

I wasn’t arguing against sending the/any/all tanks though, I’m all for it. Just saying the decision being tough for them is not a sign of a lack of unity among nato members in Europe when it comes to the war. I don’t know exactly what people across the pond believed the level of unity to be before the Ukraine war but Europe (minus Russia, Belarus and few assholes) has never been this united.



I’m reminded of a Daily Show episode with Trevor Noah explaining to Americans that the US has nothing on Europe when it comes to starting wars, as in a smart ass answer to your question would be “ourselves”. But then I don’t disagree with your post.

“Ukraine is proxy for the entire democratic world”

And for Poland. Poland, who seems so cool threatening to be defiant against the Germans by sending the tanks without their permission. Poland, which would have its own thread if it weren’t for Putin invading Ukraine.

Anyway, looks like the Germans are not going to get in the way of Poland providing the tanks.

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