You forgot the most compelling argument for: the steady and serious rise in atmospheric pCO2, combined with the failure of the hydro-and lithosphere to buffer this out in a timely manner. The rise in pCO2 and the mass of the atmosphere allow us to calculate the total tonnage of added carbon dioxide, and this correlates sharply with industrial and postindustrial (like, transport) emissions.
The noisiness of climate data and the tendency of climate modeling to be incomplete or just plain in left field are real, but they don't allow us to simply dismiss out of hand that anthropogenic GW might be a serious matter. The stakes aren't our extinction, since in the worst case there will be a good residue of arable land. But in that worst case (ice sheets gone) the home of billions will be drowned, and the much of breadbasket of the remainder will be rendered desert. So while this won't kill us, it could very well lead to a Dark Age to make the post-Roman one look like a dawdle. Jmo. cn