The truth about minimum wage and income inequality

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
And what kind of suit are you wearing? I'm certainly coaxing a plethora of stupid shit from your end...

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And speaking of the Ruble, what's its value currently?

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Since 1998, it's been fairly stable (as far as ForEx goes).
I guess that problem in the 90s failed to erase the Ruble off the map?
I must admit, you are pretty good at putting the cart before the horse...
Please, tell me more about how the fall of Communism, and the post-collapse market reforms have anything to do with what we are discussing.
And why not bring up Weimar, the Turkish Pengo, and Zimbabwe while you're at it...

If you were a fish-monger, I imagine there would be nothing for sale except red herring.
If your avatar doesn't make a mockery of Aristotle enough, your attempts at logical cohesion certainly finish the job.
Yo mama's so fat... homie.


ya... soviet union... not there no more. ruble now a regular fiat currency. ruble now just another national currency with stable government backing it.
before, when soviets ran ruble, ruble not worth shit. now ruble stable currency. but still fiat currency.

why you no get that, maybe "soviet union" too complex for you to understand.
soviets run ruble as private money machine for aparatchiks, just like fed now running dollar for obama. make many dollars to conceal failing economy.
obama not there when money goes tits-up. just like soviets run ruble. make many ruble. make economy seem to be working. not really working, all a sham.
when soviet ruble go tits up economists blame people for not working hard enough. soviet people not buy line of bullshit. soviet army join rebellion, shell duma. now soviets not there no more.
is lesson. economists egghead weenies. they tell people own fault when listen to their dumb plans. work ok till economy hit tipping point then eggheads face angry mob.
mob not care how many whiteboards weenies use, mob not care how many projections of prosperity eggheads make. mob run weenies out of town on rail.
shit be better for a while, then eggheads sneak back in with more dumb plans that they make seem smart with many graphs and charts.

economics NOT SCIENCE it just dress up like science to confuse dumheds in congress, and get control of economy.
maybe you get idea when me not use many big words?

you not make sense, you make stupid comment, not support point. you use appeal to authority, and ad hominem, you pretend any who dont agree just stupid but you so smart.

is weak argument. any dumhed can make. not work. not even in retard cave.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
another classic Gish Gallop, lay out 5 thousand wonkish claims and demand that each be refuted in turn, or youre right, you win, and everybody else is an asshole.
Why, was it hard to defend your claims the way you had them stacked up?

1 ) the federal reserve bank is corrupt, and was created on jekyll island by aldrich warburd morgan and rothschild
this claim is 100% true. the aldrich plan was the framework for the federal reserve, and the federal reserve we have today is exactly what aldrich and his cronies wanted, a private cartel with the power to print money, run in secret for it's own benefit. they just couldnt get it all in one bite. they had to ease it in slowly.
Warburg described his plan (he aldrich bill) as "Not Substantially Different" and this somehow becomes proof that the two plans ARE substantially different? warburg wanted private banks to have free unfettered control over all banking policy and all monetary policy which the federal reserve did NOT give him, but he was happy with it anyhow, because in less than 10 years the federal reserve and it's "Super Special Supreme Court of Bankers" were given the power to print money as they please and they NEVER were subject to any real oversight, and never will be. Closed Door Meetings and Secret Agendas. thats how the federal reserve rolls, and you cannot deny this fact as it is plainly true. the federal reserve cartel was crafted in secret by a cabal of bankers, passed through shenanigans, and signed by woodrow wilson who was BOUGHT AND PAID FOR by the banking lobby the federal reserve cartel was created from conspiracy secrets and lies, and has produced only more secrets, more lies and more conspiracies since it's inception.
Many elements of the Aldrich plan were adopted, primarily the mechanics of the system. Again, that bankers would come up with a competent design for a banking system seems reasonable to me, but I understand the source of your suspicions. Regardless, the Federal Reserve is not "exactly what aldrich and his cronies wanted" because it isn't what they wanted. They wanted to have total private control over the entire system for decades, and they basically gave themselves an antitrust exemption by setting capital requirements for banks to be eligible to join the mandatory National Reserve system. The private banks don't have the power to print money because monetary policy is in the hands of the Board of Governors, a group of scholars and public servants.

The Federal Reserve is subject to oversight. We elect the President and the Senate; the President chooses the members of the Board of Governors, and the Senate must confirm his nominees. We control who's sitting on that board if we choose to care. Similarly, we elect Congress, and Congress has the power to immediately amend the Federal Reserve Act as it pleases. Of course, we let the board serve long terms and make monetary policy decisions because we don't want to entrust Congress with something so essential. Why wouldn't you want monetary policy to be isolated from politics? Why wouldn't you want to give it to a group of seasoned professionals and thinkers versus the ignorant representatives of the unruly mobs?

2 ) the federal reserve's stated aim is to prevent boom/bust cycles. it has FAILED at this goal, and it therefore not doing what was intended.
this true. it is simply factual. the promises made to establish the central bank thats not a central bank have NOT been kept and thus the program is a failure (unless youre a banker, then it's perfect) thats why canada nationalized their central banking cartel and have never regretted doing so. our currency is the responsibility of congress, and it belongs to US not to the bankers who have been treating it as their own private piggy bank for 100 years.
That isn't the stated aim of the Fed; I don't think anyone believes boom/bust cycled can be prevented. If you mean stabilized and better controlled, that would be closer to the goal. You're concluding that the Fed has failed because boom/bust cycles have occurred, but they only "failed" if the outcome was worse than it would have been in some other system. We can't measure any other system; we can't necessarily draw conclusions from ancient economic history that's so distanced from our present reality. No one can possibly say whether the Fed has failed or succeeded at making things better than they otherwise would have been.

Empirically, we can say that in the period after World War II things were more stable than they were historically. You want to call it growing pains in the past? Luck? The initial success in the Ponzi scheme? Whatever you attribute that reality to, the system has worked and here we are. Total collapse has been predicted many times before, and maybe it will come true someday...but maybe not.

3 ) the federal reserve is a private entity
undeniably true.
You're going to have to explain that to me. The Board of Governors, which holds the true power, is a public body appointed in exactly the same way our courts and executive agencies are filled.

4) the federal reserve doesnt answer to the congress, they simply tell the congress how things are gonna be.
another simple factual statement. the president appoints the fed chairman, but once that twat is in, he cannot get rid of him without massive upheavals and economic collapse, which is the plan. the fed board is a secret suprteme court for our money, they run it as they see fit, and they cannot be dislodged without turning the country upside down through manufactured crisis and panic on wall street. they protect their positions of power by creating the illusion that they are somehow smarter than the rest of us who use math in the accepted manner, where 2-2 =0 not 2-2 = infinite wealth through borrowing and debt service.
Thank God they don't answer to Congress, as I already explained.

You're right about the Fed running our money as they see fit, but that doesn't mean its a super secret banker conspiracy. We're experimental subjects and our economy is the model; they've made all kinds of predictions about what might happen if they take certain actions, drawing on all previous human experience, and playing governor is their opportunity to implement those ideas. Of course it happens! But those are well-intentioned and thoroughly reasoned experimental ideas that were hotly debated by brilliant people before they were enacted. I trust that process more than I trust a body of non-experts dependent on popularity to keep their jobs. The board is supposed to be focused on the long term, not the short term, and their fundamental interest is in obtaining more prosperity.

5) "gold is the same as fiat currency and fractional reserve banking"
BULLSHIT. gold is a medium of exchange because it is valued, and for no other reason, thsi is true, but if the leafs of a maple tree were our currency, then anyone who had a tree could be "rich" and maple leafs wouldnt buy shit. gold is rare, it cannot be created, only extracted by labour, and it is permanent, while beads, pukka shell necklaces, wampum belts and tobacco leafs (all used as standard currencies in their day) can be fairly easily created, and as such they do not represent a stable currency. fiat money is based solely on the promise of the congress that they will keep the economy in order. this promise is one only a fool would accept. if the fed wanted to, they could double our supply of paper dollars tomorrow, and drive us into the same inflationary spiral as zimbabwe, which was caused by PRINTING PRESSES, not real-estate re-alignment. pretending zimbabwe's problems were the result of political deciosi0ons rather than careless currency printing is ridiculous. zimbabwe was awash in MILLION DOLLAR NOTES, and these notes didnt magically appear when they distributed land to the peasantry. they were printed up by foolish central bankers as a solution to the country's debt problems. in other words, Quantitative Easing.
Gold isn't as stable as you're trying to suggest it is. Regardless, why is it an advantage that gold can't be created and exists in a relatively fixed supply? Why does it matter that it can only be extracted by labor? Why does it matter that it's permanent? Gold is just a thing like so many other things, and it's not a useful thing at all. The realization that we need not be ruled by an arbitrary substance was a brilliant one, encouraged by all the problems we were having keeping that gold system afloat.

Obviously when you can easily create money that's prone to abuse, especially by politicians thinking in the short-term. Fortunately, the politicians don't make monetary policy decisions in the United States and can't decide to print as much money as they want. We leave that to experts and public servants who have dedicated their lives either to academia or serving us. I'm still waiting for you to explain to me why those people at the head of it all care at all about what happens to the banks. Have I asked three times now? And you haven't even tried to answer that because there is no sinister motivation underlying it all--you have no facts that could even hint at one.

As for Zimbabwe, I didn't claim there were no printing presses. When the government tinkered with the economy, agricultural production and manufacturing output very suddenly plummeted and never returned; international investment was stifled. Facts, and the result was economic chaos, which occurred before the hyperinflation did. The hyperinflation was a reaction, and obviously a horrible one. We have no such economic crisis; we have far less corruption (if you're cynical about that statement, just imagine what Zimbabwe must be like); and the scale of the Fed's operation is nowhere close to that seen in Zimbabwe. An economy is all about confidence: so long as people remain confident, you can do a lot of tinkering. When the economy has been destroyed, everyone is unemployed and unproductive, and the government's response is to flood the market with meaningless bills, there is no confidence.

6 ) "banks dont actually make money with their magic hat, through fractional reserve sorcery"
yes. they do.
if you need a hammer and ask to borrow mine, and i do not have a hammer to loan you, you cannot build a house. but banks can loan you "money" which does not exist through the magic of the federal reserve and their system of Make Believe. i cannot loan you $100 if i only have $50 in my pocket, but banks can. i cannot let you borrow my car if i have already loaned it to my cousin, but banks can. banks view money, property and in fact all of existence as a ledger entry, and ledger entries can be moved about, allowed to pass into negative numbers, then simply resume as if nothing happened when the numbers go back into positive territory. the real world doesnt work like that, and only bankers believe it can or should. if you grow dope like bankers make money, youll have dead plants, ruined soil and no dope, ever. if you forget to water your plants for a week, and then over water them for the next week, will your plants live? no. but your bank ledgers will be doing fine.
The flaw is easy enough to spot. Empirically, if I need a hammer and neither of us has one, I cannot build a house. Yet when banks create money, they facilitate economic activity that actually takes place. This is sensible enough: most people are incapable of evaluating investment opportunities and most people have no need to access all of their savings immediately. By depositing your money in a bank, you let the bank make risk decisions, putting your capital to work. Of course, your capital is also at risk, but because the bank has so many other loans, the risk is relatively small, and the cost can be priced into the interest rates charged on loans. Since people have no need to redeem all of their accumulated capital at the same time, the accumulation facilitates activity beyond what it otherwise would have while also decreasing the risk profile of that activity.

All that matters is that it works. We all owe a lot of gratitude to banking for giving us this wonderful world we live in now. You can't tell me we don't have it because obviously we do.


7 )" if that was true then banks would be making more money than they are claiming on their taxes...
"

DUH! how do multi-nationals avoid big tax burdens? offshore banking, offshore incorporation, and hiding profits in shell companies. thats what banks do best because thats what they are intended for, moving money around to maximize profits while minimizing risks (including taxes) you cannot deny the fact that when the rest of the economy was getting fucked in the ass, the banking sector was sitting pretty, and when washington bailed out their poorly managed insurance holdings their profits went even higher. banks do their best to not lose money. being successful at not losing money does not make them the right people to manage how and when our money supply is adjusted. it makes them the WRONG people to do that. banker are notoriously cautious with THEIR money but infamously careless with the money of others.
We're talking about an income statement, not a tax return. Based on Griffin's math, the banks should have many times the revenue they claim to have. You're talking about avoiding tax burdens? That's totally irrelevant to how much revenue they have. If I own a Bermuda corporation that holds investments, I have revenue from the investments in the US under US accounting rules regardless of whether I paid any tax domestic or foreign (which is why many large public companies have such low US federal income tax rates considering their net incomes). I'm not denying that some meaningful level of malfeasance is constantly taking place because I believe that's inevitable: there will always be a market for tax savings and willing providers, and there will always be ways to reduce repoorted revenue, reduce tax costs, and increase profit. But here you're trying to suggest that tens of trillions of dollars is slithering around in the financial system every single year so that Griffin's math makes sense? Come on now.

There's really nothing sinister about offshore incorporation and shell companies. The United States is a very strange country because it insists on taxing income earned in other countries regardless of the fact that tax had to be paid in those other countries (we're one of the only countries in the world that still does this). Consequently, a US company might face a total tax rate of 50% while a domestic company might face a tax rate of 25%. Obviously this disparity makes competition difficult. Recognizing the problem, we have tax credits that allow companies to defer paying US tax so long as the money is kept offshore, meaning the effective tax rate on foreign operations can be equivalent to the tax rate on domestic operations, so long as the money isn't repatriated. They aren't "avoiding their fair share" of the tax burden, just trying to be competitive with every other company in the world that's vying for the business of billions of people.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
Credit default swaps and other schemes?

You pretty much confirmed that you don't understand how the crash happened.

a CDS isn't a scheme anymore than a interest swap is.

The problem stems from banks knowing they are TBTF and will be bailed out if they make bad bets. This fueled the speculative market and when combined with low interest rates set by the fed all conglomerated to put bad money into securitized crap, the underwriters of which knew those contracts were absolute SHIT and knew they would crash, so the banks took out insurance (CDS) on other peoples houses (the mortgage securities), knowing that a team of arsonists (defaults) was coming.


This all could have been averted had we listened to Brooksly Born, instead the Clinton Administration castigated her and fired her so that they could blow this bubble and make a lot of money on the backs of us little people who were ultimately the ones taking out the loans and buying the houses.
Some of the pioneers held so much of their own toxic junk that they succumbed; TARP probably prevented many others from succumbing.

I think the story is a simple tale of greed implicating everyone involved. Mortgage securities had good returns considering the risk, so investors demanded them; banks wanted more securities to sell to those investors, so they asked for loans; loan originators wanted to push as many loans as possible to boost their paychecks; individual people made irrational financial decisions to get things they never should have had. With Fannie and Freddie behind so many mortgages, the risk of mortgage securities seemed less--there was an implicit guarantee standing behind them in the federal government. If you can just sell the loan to Fannie or Freddie or have them insure it, why would you care about happened to the borrower? I think a lot of people honestly believed they had properly calculated the risks, otherwise they wouldn't have been gambling. We're susceptible to group irrationality and we always will be.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
Although the President gets to choose maybe one board member, his choices are limited to only 12 people. Those 12 people are wholly 100% chosen by the banks. In essence, the politicians only confirm the choices that the banks already made for them. i.e. there is no choice, the banks are the ones making the choices, the politicians just get to pick which choice already made for them they like best.

Its kind of like the original Ford Model T, you could have any color choice you wanted, as long as it was black.

So the congress can have any person they want on the board, as long as its a candidate the bankers already selected.

That isn't choice and it isn't free.
You're talking about the regional Federal Reserve banks. The Board of Governors is a federal agency and the Board is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The Board controls monetary policy.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
Nuhh Uhh!!

the federal reserve is a government agency. i know it's true because an economics weenie told me so.



i remember treasury notes and gold and silver certificates too. silver certificates are still worth face value, and can be redeemed for face value in silver. so you need ~$23.30 to get an ounce of silver for it. and that $23.30 buys almost exactly as much bread, milk, cheese or wine now as the ounce of silver bought in the 1960's or the 1860's or 260BC.

but theres no inflation, and specie currencies are doomed to fail because they are not "elastic", and ill use all sorts of statistical mumbo jumbo and magical thinking to "prove" it to you. but rtemember if you throw up your hands and walk away 2 hours into my 8 hour lecture on why paper money is best, then i win!
How do you figure that an ounce of silver bought $23.30 worth of those things in the 1960s? You can only do it by selecting the high price for that decade, but the price was volatile. Depending on what year of the 1960s you sold that silver, it may have bought far less than it would now. Likewise, the price history through the decades has been quite volatile, so depending on the year, your assertion doesn't hold. I presume it doesn't hold for the rest of human history either.

I'm sure you're aware of the fact that silver actually has more utility than gold does in industrial applications. Much of the demand for silver (at least half?) now is industrial, which is unrelated to the fact that it's a precious metal. If you stripped that demand out and compared the price of silver to your other time periods, what would it be then?
 

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
How do you figure that an ounce of silver bought $23.30 worth of those things in the 1960s? You can only do it by selecting the high price for that decade, but the price was volatile. Depending on what year of the 1960s you sold that silver, it may have bought far less than it would now. Likewise, the price history through the decades has been quite volatile, so depending on the year, your assertion doesn't hold. I presume it doesn't hold for the rest of human history either.

I'm sure you're aware of the fact that silver actually has more utility than gold does in industrial applications. Much of the demand for silver (at least half?) now is industrial, which is unrelated to the fact that it's a precious metal. If you stripped that demand out and compared the price of silver to your other time periods, what would it be then?


silver's price has been more sporadic than gold's, however, the overall inflation line is consistent at aproximately doubling every decade.

on a shorter timeline, in the 80's gasoline was ~$.75 a gallon, now it pushes $4-5 a gallon in that same region. the same aproximately 400% inflation can be seen in bread , at 25 cents for shitty "wonder" or a buck for whole wheat in the 80's, to 1 bcuk for shitty white sponge dough bread,, and $4-5 for good solid whole wheat. milk was about 75 cents a gallon in the 80's, now it's 3-4 bucks depending. again all in the same market region.

everything has increased in price by about 4x since the 80's, and so has silver. since the 70s, when a coca cola was a dime.... yeah. you see the point. or maybe you dont.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member


silver's price has been more sporadic than gold's, however, the overall inflation line is consistent at aproximately doubling every decade.

on a shorter timeline, in the 80's gasoline was ~$.75 a gallon, now it pushes $4-5 a gallon in that same region. the same aproximately 400% inflation can be seen in bread , at 25 cents for shitty "wonder" or a buck for whole wheat in the 80's, to 1 bcuk for shitty white sponge dough bread,, and $4-5 for good solid whole wheat. milk was about 75 cents a gallon in the 80's, now it's 3-4 bucks depending. again all in the same market region.

everything has increased in price by about 4x since the 80's, and so has silver. since the 70s, when a coca cola was a dime.... yeah. you see the point. or maybe you dont.
You tried to suggest that the price had been relatively fixed for thousands of years. In reality, the price was substantially higher in the distant past, and then it plummeted in the modern era. Whatever the price is right now, it's a fraction of what the price has been in the past. And that's not even addressing my point about modern demand for silver being industrial applications that didn't exist in that distant past, which means the price is higher right now than it otherwise would be (substantially higher since that's such a significant part of the demand).

Yes, prices have increased, but so have wages. You're talking about gas being 75 cents a gallon and bread being 25 cents a loaf in the 1980s, but what was the median income? Under $17,000; with that income in 1980, I could have bought 22,000 gallons of gas. The median income in 2011 was about $50,000; with that wage in 2011, I could have bought 14,205 gallons of gas. Yes, there's a loss in purchasing power over gas, but certainly not at the level you claim, and that's a terrible example anyway. Demand for oil has skyrocketed all over the world since the 1980s, and then 9/11 happened. Once the oil producers got used to those high prices, they worked very hard to keep them up. If the energy boom continues in the United States, we'll probably see oil and gas prices come down again. It's about supply and demand on a global scale, not inflation. The truth about inflation is that the median income in 1980 was about $16,500. Adjusting that for prices changes of all kinds, the purchasing power would be equal to less than the median income today.
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
Dr. Kynes,

Have you tried running a regression analysis on income quintiles and the price of silver over that time period, yet?

Why stop at a few loaves of bread, and the price of leaded vs unleaded gasoline? How much was an iPhone in the 1960s?
I bet it cost more than 20 Ozs. of silver.

And when you get right down to it, what is it that causes inflation in prices anyway? In the end it comes down to input costs, profit margins and the consumer's willingness to pay, as far as I can tell.
 

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
You tried to suggest that the price had been relatively fixed for thousands of years. In reality, the price was substantially higher in the distant past, and then it plummeted in the modern era. Whatever the price is right now, it's a fraction of what the price has been in the past. And that's not even addressing my point about modern demand for silver being industrial applications that didn't exist in that distant past, which means the price is higher right now than it otherwise would be (substantially higher since that's such a significant part of the demand).

Yes, prices have increased, but so have wages. You're talking about gas being 75 cents a gallon and bread being 25 cents a loaf in the 1980s, but what was the median income? Under $17,000; with that income in 1980, I could have bought 22,000 gallons of gas. The median income in 2011 was about $50,000; with that wage in 2011, I could have bought 14,205 gallons of gas. Yes, there's a loss in purchasing power over gas, but certainly not at the level you claim, and that's a terrible example anyway. Demand for oil has skyrocketed all over the world since the 1980s, and then 9/11 happened. Once the oil producers got used to those high prices, they worked very hard to keep them up. If the energy boom continues in the United States, we'll probably see oil and gas prices come down again. It's about supply and demand on a global scale, not inflation. The truth about inflation is that the median income in 1980 was about $16,500. Adjusting that for prices changes of all kinds, the purchasing power would be equal to less than the median income today.
prices go up, wages go up, silver goes up, gold goes up...

and i assert that the dollar has gone DOWN.

the wild fluctuations in silver's price create outlyers that statisticians can use, (deceptively as they are well aware) to create the illusion of radically lower or higher prices, but the general trend for silver, just as for gold is UPWARDS, and the median line is fairly even.

this upwards movement for precious metals, and jewels and diamonds, and food, and lodging, etc etc etc have all kept a pretty even pace. the few wild changes and big corrections dont change the average.

the left leaning economics weenies talk about falling purchasing power despite higher wages, but what they really dont want to admit is that the dollar is in a downward spiral, and only sound monetary policy will fix it. that policy will NOT come from the federal reserve or from Lil Timmy Geithner, just as it didnt come from that shriveled old scrotal wart Greenspan.
 

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
Dr. Kynes,

Have you tried running a regression analysis on income quintiles and the price of silver over that time period, yet?

Why stop at a few loaves of bread, and the price of leaded vs unleaded gasoline? How much was an iPhone in the 1960s?
I bet it cost more than 20 Ozs. of silver.

And when you get right down to it, what is it that causes inflation in prices anyway? In the end it comes down to input costs, profit margins and the consumer's willingness to pay, as far as I can tell.
i dunno, whats the cost of having your horse shod these days?

instead of two bits a foot, and a dollar for all 4 hooves, it runs around $30 a foot, or $120 for all 4

has putting iron on a hoof become more expensive, or has that dollar gone down?

look to zimbabwe, or wiermar germany, their inflation was caused by the same shit ours is, too many people, with too many currency units chasing the same resources. but the specie metals still endure,, and the price of a loaf of bread in the 70's vs the price of silver compares neatly to the price of a similar loaf to the same silver today.

also, iPhones my ass.

it wasnt even clever. that's the sort of shit bucky trots out when he's phoning it in.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
prices go up, wages go up, silver goes up, gold goes up...

and i assert that the dollar has gone DOWN.
If you mean that it takes $2.81 to buy what cost $1 in 1980, yes. But so what? If wages make up the difference (and we're actually in a better situation now), why do the nominal price terms matter? What's the difference between making $17,000 and paying 25 cents for bread versus making $50,000 and paying $2?

the wild fluctuations in silver's price create outlyers that statisticians can use, (deceptively as they are well aware) to create the illusion of radically lower or higher prices, but the general trend for silver, just as for gold is UPWARDS, and the median line is fairly even.

this upwards movement for precious metals, and jewels and diamonds, and food, and lodging, etc etc etc have all kept a pretty even pace. the few wild changes and big corrections dont change the average.

the left leaning economics weenies talk about falling purchasing power despite higher wages, but what they really dont want to admit is that the dollar is in a downward spiral, and only sound monetary policy will fix it. that policy will NOT come from the federal reserve or from Lil Timmy Geithner, just as it didnt come from that shriveled old scrotal wart Greenspan
What are you talking about? Historically, silver was worth far, far more than it is now. In the modern era, the price of silver plummeted. Those are simple facts--there's no illusion, there's no statistical game. If you held silver as an asset for 1000, 500, 250, or 100 years, you lost money. Silver is worth very little now, relatively speaking, even after all that inflation you're complaining about. Silver would have been a terrible hedge!
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
Just for the sake of empiricism, here is a chart of the USA's lower 4 quintiles' incomes divided by the average annual price of silver (in cents/Ozt.) from 1967 - 2011.
Note: the dates are in descending order

Income by PoS lowest 4 quints.PNG

Squeeze and Expand... There is NO WAY silver can be used as a metric of stability.
 

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
If you mean that it takes $2.81 to buy what cost $1 in 1980, yes. But so what? If wages make up the difference (and we're actually in a better situation now), why do the nominal price terms matter? What's the difference between making $17,000 and paying 25 cents for bread versus making $50,000 and paying $2?
hmm so youre saying that when prices for ordinary everyday items go up 400% and wages go from $4.25/hour (Min calif wage in 1988) to $8.00/hour (Min calif wage in 2013) hour, im making MORE than i did in the 80's? thats some awesome math right there.
cuz thats where i find myself. actually i make $9/hour, but your average teen isnt, he's getting the minimum so clearly i got the inside track, despite my debilitating injury which keeps me from doing my profession, but im too stubborn to get on disability like a lazy shit... and i would get less on disability. so theres also that.


What are you talking about? Historically, silver was worth far, far more than it is now. In the modern era, the price of silver plummeted. Those are simple facts--there's no illusion, there's no statistical game. If you held silver as an asset for 1000, 500, 250, or 100 years, you lost money. Silver is worth very little now, relatively speaking, even after all that inflation you're complaining about. Silver would have been a terrible hedge!
yep. ill make a note of that. if i had bouth 100 ounces of silver in 1970 at $1.75/oz ($175 even) that same silver would now be worth $2300. yep thats pretty poor return over 40 years, but it's not 0

meanwhile, my stack of greenbacks in a coffee can under my porch would still be worth $175, but those $175 bucks would buy a shitload less cheese, milk, bread, coffee, beef or cabbage than they would have in 1970 when they were actually 1970 dollars.

note, 1970 was chosen because thats when i was born, if i waited to buy that silver till 1980, it would have cost me about $20/oz, and the return would be far lower especially over 30 years

in 1990, at $3.50 /oz, then the return over 20 years starts lookin pretty good.

and if i bought that same 100 oz of silver last year it would have cost me around 4 grand, and would now be worth a little better than half that.

the change from 1970 to now is resepctable, the change since last year is terrible and i would have lost my shirt, but over the LONG term silver is doin me just fine. when the obamabucks start grinding the dollar down in their endless torrent of new unsustainable money printing i expect silver will still see me gaining over holding obamabucks, and thats all i ask from it. im not lookin to get rich, im looking to not get too much poorer.
 

heckler73

Well-Known Member
:lol:
Here's your bread and circuses...

bread price 1980-2013.PNG Silver by bread 1980-2011.PNG

EDIT: on the 2nd chart, just multiply the Y-axis by ten to find out how many loaves of White Bread silver is worth.... LOL
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
hmm so youre saying that when prices for ordinary everyday items go up 400% and wages go from $4.25/hour (Min calif wage in 1988) to $8.00/hour (Min calif wage in 2013) hour, im making MORE than i did in the 80's? thats some awesome math right there.
cuz thats where i find myself. actually i make $9/hour, but your average teen isnt, he's getting the minimum so clearly i got the inside track, despite my debilitating injury which keeps me from doing my profession, but im too stubborn to get on disability like a lazy shit... and i would get less on disability. so theres also that.
That isn't what I said, and you can't play so fast with the dates if you're going to make this case. Minimum wage in California in 1980 was $3.10. Multiply by the CPI applicable to 1980 and you get $8.71, which is a decline in purchasing power. When you inflation adjust the 1988 wage of $4.25, the equivalent is $8.12. The problem with your 400% inflation is that it applies to individual items rather than looking at everything in aggregate, and that makes no sense. If the average consumer spends $2000 a year on gas versus $3000 in 1980, it cancels out the extra $300 they paid for bread in a year.

Looking at median incomes by quintiles, purchasing power is even or increased for everyone from 1980 up to a few years ago (the newest date I can find), so there's nothing there. Most people have even or more purchasing power than they did in 1980, which makes inflation totally irrelevant. Perhaps people earning minimum wage today have less purchasing power than in 1980, but that's a very small group of people, and most people don't earn minimum wage for very long, so I don't see why it's so damning.

yep. ill make a note of that. if i had bouth 100 ounces of silver in 1970 at $1.75/oz ($175 even) that same silver would now be worth $2300. yep thats pretty poor return over 40 years, but it's not 0

meanwhile, my stack of greenbacks in a coffee can under my porch would still be worth $175, but those $175 bucks would buy a shitload less cheese, milk, bread, coffee, beef or cabbage than they would have in 1970 when they were actually 1970 dollars.

note, 1970 was chosen because thats when i was born, if i waited to buy that silver till 1980, it would have cost me about $20/oz, and the return would be far lower especially over 30 years

in 1990, at $3.50 /oz, then the return over 20 years starts lookin pretty good.

and if i bought that same 100 oz of silver last year it would have cost me around 4 grand, and would now be worth a little better than half that.

the change from 1970 to now is resepctable, the change since last year is terrible and i would have lost my shirt, but over the LONG term silver is doin me just fine. when the obamabucks start grinding the dollar down in their endless torrent of new unsustainable money printing i expect silver will still see me gaining over holding obamabucks, and thats all i ask from it. im not lookin to get rich, im looking to not get too much poorer.
How much your diatribe has changed! From thousands of years of solid, reliable performance it's down to just 40 years! If you had $175 in cash in 1970 and invested it at the inflation rate, you'd have $1000. What would you have in silver without modern industrial demand for it? I guess we don't want to acknowledge that as we're pushing the precious metal that's a stable store of value thing, but the answer is much less. Maybe you'd break even or slightly exceed inflation. Of course, anyone who let their cash earn the inflation rate since 1970 is a moron, so I don't understand how this is making your point anyway. The choice isn't silver or dollars, when it comes to making an investment, it's silver or other investments. The simple truth is that anyone who'd been holding silver since 1970 got lucky that all of these electronics got invented, since manufacturers are the ones buying it up and using it, not investors.

Your original claim was that 1 ounce of silver would have bought the same goods over a period of thousands of years. We got that down to 40 years, and you just went through all the price instability in silver in that time. Instead of saying silver has been a reliable store of value for thousands of years, now you seem to be saying that silver has been a successful investment over a period of 20 or 40 years but not over other periods within the same time frame. I'm afraid the only conclusion I can see tracing these steps is that silver is not a reliable store of value at all.
 

Red1966

Well-Known Member
If you mean that it takes $2.81 to buy what cost $1 in 1980, yes. But so what? If wages make up the difference (and we're actually in a better situation now), why do the nominal price terms matter? What's the difference between making $17,000 and paying 25 cents for bread versus making $50,000 and paying $2? What are you talking about? Historically, silver was worth far, far more than it is now. In the modern era, the price of silver plummeted. Those are simple facts--there's no illusion, there's no statistical game. If you held silver as an asset for 1000, 500, 250, or 100 years, you lost money. Silver is worth very little now, relatively speaking, even after all that inflation you're complaining about. Silver would have been a terrible hedge!
That difference would be 68,000 loaves of bread annual pay verses 25,000 loaves annual pay. Or a little better than 1/3 the pay. Also. you'd pay little if any taxes on $17,000, but $10,000 or so on $50,000.
 

Dr Kynes

Well-Known Member
Just for the sake of empiricism, here is a chart of the USA's lower 4 quintiles' incomes divided by the average annual price of silver (in cents/Ozt.) from 1967 - 2011.
Note: the dates are in descending order

View attachment 2631687

Squeeze and Expand... There is NO WAY silver can be used as a metric of stability.


and conversely, (note my graphs go from left to rioght in the proper direction...)









charts selected solely for their consistency of timeframe, with no regard for whether they support or oppose my conclusion. really i just searched for group-s commodity charts with a 10 year timeframe ending in 2012.

but look, they all follow the same path, up up up up fall back round 2009 (hope and change for the win of course...) then up up up for the sky!

corn wheat soya, palm oil, crude oil,, gold silver platinum palladium etc, all moving together,

or is it the dollar moving, while everything else stands still.

i know it's heresy but maybe, just maybe, the dollar is not at the center of the universe.
maybe, JUUUUUST maybe GOLD is the value that everything else, including the dollar orbits.

lets keep this between you and me though, dont let Pope Geithner hear about this theory or ill be sent to the inquisition.
 

tokeprep

Well-Known Member
That difference would be 68,000 loaves of bread annual pay verses 25,000 loaves annual pay. Or a little better than 1/3 the pay. Also. you'd pay little if any taxes on $17,000, but $10,000 or so on $50,000.
You're making the same mistake of using one price to calculate purchasing power. If people only bought bread and/or gasoline, you and Kynes would have a point. While some prices have gone up, other prices have gone down. When you net it all out, purchasing power today is the same or better at the median than in 1980.

Calculating the tax burdens without deductions or credits, a single person earning $50,000 paid 16.6% of their income as federal income tax in 2013. A single person earning $17,000 paid 18.8% of their income as federal income tax in 1980. I'm guessing if we compared taxes with deductions and credits in both periods, the 1980 tax bill would be higher than the 2013 tax bill.
 
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