War

printer

Well-Known Member
The F-16's will cause the Russian planes to stay further away as the long distance radar would paint the aircraft and the Russian pilot knows if they do not get farther away a missile will be coming their way. The F-16 is an extremely mobile antiaircraft system and does not have the limitations of ground bases AA systems. The Russians will have to pull back further and will be less effective because of it.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Before the war Russia had an economy the size if Italy's, now it is much smaller has lost a lot of its income and is straining under the weight of war while its funds are frozen in the west, and they are under cold war like sanctions. They never made much after the USSR broke up but bought modern Russia from the west after the 90's, everything from elevators to streetlamps, they can't even make roller bearings for their railway rolling stock FFS and imported them. They are a lot like an oil rich middle east oil kingdom and postindustrial with nothing to replace it with, education has taken a ponding in Russia for decades and all the old Soviet engineers and scientists are dead, all the bright sparks went off to America and founded Google and such.

They have land and they have manpower, but they also have ethnic division and many enemies, several nations along their borders want their asses or their land back! They are not industrialized, corruption killed that, if you had anything that made a buck, someone connected to Vlad would want a piece of the action etc. Corruption killed more than their military, it killed their industrial and tech sectors too and the only cure is regime change and reform, but there are social/political obstacles too. They see themselves as an empire and for centuries the role of the secret police was to kill off dissent and ethnic nationalism inside the empire, a role taken over by the KGB and now the FSB. Russia cannot be a liberal democracy because it would break apart, like the Soviet Union before it. Only European Russia would be left, west of the Urals where 80% of the population and most of the Russian's live, since the Soviet Union there has been an exodus of ethnic Russians from the east, going back to Mother Russia when they had the freedom to do so. To hang onto the empire, they must trade it for their freedom, for freedom means freedom for those they had under their thumb by force and that means progressive dissolution.
The Russians may not have a large economy now but they inherited a lot of Soviet equipment.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The Russians may not have a large economy now but they inherited a lot of Soviet equipment.
Currently being destroyed or used up in Ukraine, which I think is a lot of the objective for some western partners. Destroy as much of it as they can and force Vlad to deploy as much of it as he can, even clean out the junk from the 50's. I think the smart military minds in Ukraine hate the strategy and sacrifice but will agree that it is the best long-term security, suck them in and destroy them piecemeal. To build a strong economy you need security, and the best security right now is a weak Russia, economically and militarily. Ukraine should prosper like South Korea and West Germany, the west will make sure of that, if the Ukrainians are up to it. A strong economy means a strong defense for them. and it will rub the Russian's noses in it, all the exiled Russian broadcasters will be working out of Ukraine with directed broadcasts into Russia. This war will continue in Georgia and other places, probably Belarus too and that will take care of anything Vlad has left in the tank.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The Russians may not have a large economy now but they inherited a lot of Soviet equipment.
Vlad has sown the wind, and he is reaping the whirlwind, as the Bible says, the wind will continue until all his hardware is gone. Troops he has lots of, equipment, not so much, a modern army can kill them long before they see the hoard coming at them, even inside Russia.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
The F-16's will cause the Russian planes to stay further away as the long distance radar would paint the aircraft and the Russian pilot knows if they do not get farther away a missile will be coming their way. The F-16 is an extremely mobile antiaircraft system and does not have the limitations of ground bases AA systems. The Russians will have to pull back further and will be less effective because of it.
It rather depends on which version of AIM-120 we’re giving them. If we’re cleaning house of the obsolescent B type, those have a ~40-km range. The C and D have improved range (105 and perhaps 160 km) and upgraded intercept probabilities. Be interesting to see what we send them.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
It rather depends on which version of AIM-120 we’re giving them. If we’re cleaning house of the obsolescent B type, those have a ~40-km range. The C and D have improved range (105 and perhaps 160 km) and upgraded intercept probabilities. Be interesting to see what we send them.
A mix would be best with mostly obsolete ones, the Russians wouldn't know what was coming at them when the F16 radar locked on to them from many miles out and the detection alarm went off!
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
A mix would be best with mostly obsolete ones, the Russians wouldn't know what was coming at them when the F16 radar locked on to them from many miles out and the detection alarm went off!
With a supply of not many missiles, wasting them seems tactically poor. I would consider “fire only if the chance of a hit is good” to be a better use of a limited resource.

I am assuming that Ukrainian pilots are as good as or better than their Russian counterparts. That way, the Ukrainians can get inside the kill-likely radius with the shorter-range units while not getting their hot rides shot out from under them.

If the Ukrainians have or can cobble together an Awacs, the -16s can come in low and fast (reducing the chance of early detection or enemy Manpads use) and fire from close range without using their radars until the last second.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
With a supply of not many missiles, wasting them seems tactically poor. I would consider “fire only if the chance of a hit is good” to be a better use of a limited resource.

I am assuming that Ukrainian pilots are as good as or better than their Russian counterparts. That way, the Ukrainians can get inside the kill-likely radius with the shorter-range units while not getting their hot rides shot out from under them.

If the Ukrainians have or can cobble together an Awacs, the -16s can come in low and fast (reducing the chance of early detection or enemy Manpads use) and fire from close range without using their radars until the last second.
They and the Russians have a multitude of tricks they can employ, and the Ukrainians can arm their F16s with a couple of close-range missiles for defense and use the longer-range ones for attacking Russian bombers. I suspect Uncle Sam and others might have more older ones they want to unload than newer longer-range ones.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
They and the Russians have a multitude of tricks they can employ, and the Ukrainians can arm their F16s with a couple of close-range missiles for defense and use the longer-range ones for attacking Russian bombers. I suspect Uncle Sam and others might have more older ones they want to unload than newer longer-range ones.
For that in-between range too far for guns, I imagine the evergreen AIM-9 will be the weapon of choice. They’re about 1/3 the cost of the 120.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
For that in-between range too far for guns, I imagine the evergreen AIM-9 will be the weapon of choice. They’re about 1/3 the cost of the 120.
Dunno much on the details of AA weapons except each successive generation reaches further and is more deadly. They use a version of the new one with a booster for Norwegian AA missile defense systems that Ukraine is using.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Dunno much on the details of AA weapons except each successive generation reaches further and is more deadly. They use a version of the new one with a booster for Norwegian AA missile defense systems that Ukraine is using.
I think you might be conflating AAM with SAM. Though the boundary is fuzzed by systems that convert air-launched missiles to ground-launch. With modern guidance electronics, it’s perhaps no more than opening Settings and selecting the correct option.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Maybe Vlad wants out of Ukraine, but it won't be easy for the war criminal. Personally, I don't think Ukraine needs to be in NATO, just a NATO ally. In ten years, I figure they will have a very strong economy and with that a strong military. It depends on how much Vlad has in the tank in terms of military equipment left and how close the Russian front in Ukraine is to total collapse. He can start by pulling out of all of Ukraine including Crimea, then talks can begin, they might even give them a temporary truce to do it. This one is Ukraine's call, but they have punished and reduced the Russians a lot, but perhaps not enough to eliminate the future threat. Vlad is having trouble in the Caucuses and the region is slipping from his grasp and then there is Belarus, which he must hang onto somehow or lose Kaliningrad on the Baltic too. The Russians are having trouble with the locals in Belarus and there are fighters from there in Ukraine and I think Poland is supporting them there. If nobody else does Poland will support a coup or revolution in Belarus, if it meant they would break with Russia and eventually join the west. Ukraine as a strong non-NATO member could guarantee their security after the split with Moscow by forming a military alliance with them, no NATO required, but supplied and financed by NATO!

Vlad wants to tap out and to do that they should make him get out of Ukraine first, under a temporary truce if required, but make them remove all the landmines they put in first!

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
The robo-soldier of the future will fly like superman and be as fast, smart too, or at least smart enough to kill. Maybe it will be robot on robot, a real battle of the bots.


The United States is accelerating an effort to revolutionize modern warfare by fielding swarms of self-operating drones and weapons systems. The push will shape the next generation of war and, military leaders hope, give America a leg up on China in the new global arms race.

With the Pentagon’s new Replicator initiative, the U.S. is moving fast toward an ambitious goal: propping up a fleet of legacy ships, aircraft and vehicles with the support of weapons powered by artificial intelligence (AI), creating a first-of-its-kind class of war technology. It’s also spurring a huge boost across the defense industry, which is tasked with developing and manufacturing the systems.

For those watching the U.S. defense and security field closely, Replicator was greeted with a sigh of relief — though it’s also raising a host of concerns related to accountability and the human cost of autonomous warfare.

“This is the same as the transition from crossbows to guns, from cavalry to tanks,” said Steve Blank, co-founder of the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University. “Thousands of these things that are semi-autonomous or autonomous is a major transformation in warfare. Period. All nations will eventually get here.”

The U.S. is hoping that Replicator, designed to field thousands of fully autonomous systems within two years, will get the military ahead of foreign adversaries who are also pursuing this technology, particularly China.

In the event of a clash over the self-governing island nation of Taiwan, AI-powered drones and aircraft will be vital to countering a larger Chinese military force, especially over contested waters and airspace where Beijing’s mass could overwhelm American forces.

Moreover, the war in Ukraine has shown just how important drones are. While those deployed in Ukraine and Russia are being guided remotely by human operators, AI-powered ones would significantly boost the capabilities of the forces deploying them by swarming targets.

Replicator also means faster and cheaper military technology. It’s spurring a huge boost across the defense industry, giving smaller defense tech companies a chance to compete for contracts against traditional defense giants.

If successful, the U.S. will be able to quickly produce these drones for a much cheaper cost than conventional systems, putting the military at a competitive advantage against other rivals.

The only question for defense contractors and war analysts is whether the U.S. can meet the program’s ambitious timeline.

Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announced the new initiative in late August and said the goal was to develop these weapon systems in the next 18-24 months. She added this month that Replicator does not involve new funding or personnel, but rather a steering committee will guide its progress across the entire military.

Eric Pahon, a spokesperson for the Defense Department, said it was mostly a matter of scaling out technology. He admitted there were some challenges with bureaucracy, but said the U.S. has a history of being able to pivot.

“A lot of this is about cutting the red tape within the department,” Pahon said. “We have the ability to do these things, but it’s going to take a massive mindset change and somebody who’s able to help kind of cut through the biggest delays that we have in the department.”

Pahon said Replicator would put the U.S. ahead of China and allow for AI weapons systems to be mass-deployed in nearly every field of warfare.

“The great thing about these kinds of cheap systems is that we can really easily reprogram them and refit and be really creative,” he said. “I can send an [autonomous] drone to carry a bomb or it can do weather readings or it can do surveillance. I’ve got thousands of them, no big deal.”

One challenge might be getting all of the technology to talk to each other, Pahon said, but there are plans to invest more heavily in Joint All-Domain Command and Control, a computerized network in the early stages of development.

Over time, Congress will need to step in with more robust funding for the next-generation weaponry and support structure. It’s not clear if AI weapons will end up as an immediate priority in the defense spending bills currently caught up in budget negotiations on Capitol Hill.

Last year’s defense bill included a requirement to enhance warfighting capabilities with AI and report annually through 2025 on progress.

Replicator inherits the original goal of Assault Breaker, a U.S. military program in the 1970s that proposed methods of using swarms of weapons, like long-range smart weapons that divide into tracking submunitions, to counter a larger Soviet Union until reinforcements could arrive.

...
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Exclusive: Ukrainian pilots get virtual jump on F-16 training
Ukrainian pilots are honing their skills in virtual F-16 fighter jet cockpits as they anxiously await approval to travel abroad for training.

A Ukrainian pilot gave a demonstration to a reporter from The Hill in an exclusive visit to a secret facility this month, where the cockpit simulation was displayed on large computer monitors for a small audience.

Andrii, a Su-27 fighter pilot who goes by the call sign ‘Sabre,’ sat in a mock jet seat with a joystick, pedals under his feet, and a throttle to the left. The action takes place in a virtual reality headset.

The ground location, while pixelated, is Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, and Andrii must identify his target, discharge his bomb and execute an “anti-missile maneuver.”

“And you will see that it explodes,” he explains, as a small fire burns on the computer screen. “This is the fulfillment of the mission, precisely how it is supposed to be in reality.”

Andrii keeps his hands on the controls while leaning his body and swiveling his head in the same movements he would undertake in the Soviet-era Su-27 he typically flies. On the side of his left arm is a patch for “The Ghosts of Kyiv,” the 40th tactical aviation brigade of the air force that draws its name from the debunked myth of a single fighter pilot hailed for taking down multiple Russian planes.

“We are studying F-16s. We are not interested in other aircraft,” he said, echoing a message that Ukraine’s civilian and military leaders have reiterated for months in meetings with Western partners.

After hours in the simulator, Andrii said that when he does sit in the jet, his focus can be on flying because he will know, precisely, how to manage the controls.

“We need to learn and understand the function of every button or switch, and where it is located. That will allow us later to fulfill certain missions quicker. So, we need to learn how to use and maintain this aircraft competently,” he said.

The simulator program training pilots on F-16s has not been previously reported. After a visit by The Hill, the Ukrainian air force released a promotional video on the program featuring Andrii and Oleksii Diakiv, head of the training command for the air force of Ukraine.

“All of us understand that the future belongs to F-16 aircraft or the other aircraft which our partners will provide us with,” Andrii says in the video, sitting in the cockpit of his fighter jet. “That’s why we need to train now, learn the cockpit equipment, armament system and its employment.”

The genesis of the simulator training program was part of a push to get American A-10 Thunderbolt attack aircraft to Ukraine — but that effort was eventually shelved.

The simulators are provided by the nonprofit Heroes and Allies, which had set up the virtual training program for A-10s more than a year earlier. They began purchasing computer software and controls for the F-16 program beginning in August of last year.

“We still have hope that Ukraine will receive the A-10 Thunderbolt II, after the F-16 is provided to Ukraine and its use is fully deployed,” said Alexander Gorgan, co-founder of Heroes and Allies.

President Biden agreed in June to allow the transfer of American-made F-16s from allied countries to Ukraine, and he announced in August that the U.S. would start training some Ukrainian pilots and support personnel at a base in Arizona as soon as October.

But delivery of the aircraft and their operations are not expected to take place until 2024 at the earliest.

Diakiv told The Hill that the simulator program is expected to reduce the overall length of the training for pilots, but it’s a protocol that’s never been tried before.

“We are taking this road for the first time now. So at this moment, I cannot say how much we will be able to reduce the length of training, owing to that approach,” he explained through a translator.

“But we are sure that this will reduce the time needed for that training. But once we have that experience, we certainly will be able to share it.”

The simulator also allows pilots the space to practice missions on the ground without wasting expensive fuel or risking a deadly training accident.

Two weeks before The Hill’s visit with Andrii, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that a training accident killed three pilots, among them Andriy “Juice” Pilshchykov, a national hero who had taken on an informal role of a spokesperson for Ukraine’s F-16s push.

Juice spoke to The Hill in August 2022, crediting American-provided anti-radar missiles as key in suppressing Russian air defenses, and spoke of the bond he built with U.S. pilots in 2018 after a training accident killed an American and Ukrainian pilot.

“U.S. Air Force became the real brothers in arms for us, with blood on our soil,” he told The Hill at the time.

Russia claims that it has downed more than 450 Ukrainian airplanes, a number that draws a hearty laugh from members of Ukraine’s air force, who say the actual figure is far smaller.

“So perhaps then we’ve got some blue-collar guys who sit underground and make a big number of airplanes every month,” Diakiv said to laughs in the group. “Tiny little dwarfs or elves or hobbits who can fix anything.”

While Ukraine does not comment on its war losses, a senior U.S. official reportedly said in March that Kyiv has lost about 60 aircraft and downed about 70 Russian aircraft.

It’s unclear how many F-16s Ukraine is expected to receive. Denmark has committed to send 19. The Netherlands has a fleet of 42 F-16s but has not yet said how many it will send.

And even as the F-16s are hotly anticipated, the planes are not expected to be a game-changer on the battlefield.

Ukrainian and U.S. officials, as well as experts, say no weapons system on its own will bring Russia to the negotiating table, but rather that consistent commitments from the U.S. and other allies could eventually wear down the support surrounding Russian President Vladimir Putin in maintaining his war.

“I think you’re always in a good place if you talk about capability requirements. Instead of talking about specific platforms or specific numbers, what is the capability that Ukraine needs?” asked Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the United States Army Europe.

“And of course the capability they need for this counteroffensive is to help isolate Crimea and make it untenable for Russian forces, whether that’s with jets, drones, ATACMs [long-range missiles] or whatever, that’s the decisive part of this war, is Crimea,” Hodges said.

But key to Ukraine’s defense is giving the country the ability to close its skies.

Expanding air defense over larger parts of the country — where Russia continues to hit civilian infrastructure including homes and energy and water systems — is viewed as critical for Ukraine to function as a country, keeping its citizens at home and working, and ensuring the safety of international investments and commerce.

Blending a new fleet of F-16 fighter pilots with Western air defense systems is viewed as key to this strategy.

“Perhaps it is less important how many units of the weapons they provide for us, but how well we will be able to use the advantages provided by one or another system. Perhaps we need to combine them in the most rational way to accomplish closing our sky,” Diakiv said.
 
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