War

[Friendly_Grower]

INHO the sanctions should stay on until democracy emerges and whoever crawls to the top had better understand that and make some moves in that direction to get movement on sanctions. America and the EU will want to keep Russia as weak as possible until they come around. It might not be as long as many people think, they are not starting from scratch this time and have the form of a liberal democracy, but not the substance. They also have an economy this time, shattered though it may be, it is an economic foundation that can be built upon.

We have been tolerating responsible authoritarians like China, but I think we might want to look at the policy. We should encourage liberal democracies and shift trade to those places over time. Move that only democratic countries who meet UN standards are allowed to vote t the UN and get rid of the security council, others can be observers, but they don't sit at the table with the big boys, even if nuked up.

I was wondering how removing sanctions as a bargaining tool would go. That is once Putin pulls out and makes reparations to Ukraine.

Gawd knows how it will go if people put Trump back in power.
Putin will send Trump his shoes to shrine and shine them Trump will.

 

[schuylaar]

I know what he means here in America..

Biden's off-the-cuff remark on Putin sends shock waves on dramatic final day of trip

At nearly the same moment President Joe Biden declared him a "butcher," Vladimir Putin's missiles began falling in Lviv, Ukraine.

www.cnn.com

I would be concerned about misconstrue.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

It is a shame that instead of focussing on the entire speech, that made it clear that Russians are not the enemy, and that it is the mad dictator that is using the power the Russian people have been forced to give him to do the truly horrific things Putin has done to stay in power, the focus is on the understandable feelings that come with seeing more than 10 million people becoming homeless due to Putin's actions.

But even if it causes a little cleanup from Biden's administration, it is still far, far better than we got from the last POTUS (I am sure people snow flaking about Biden's plea to a greater power stopping this madman, were just as quick to point out any escalation that these were).

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This war has been good for Joe and the cause of liberal democracy and bad for Vlad and Donald, both are just digging a deeper hole at this point. Both also have/had many subordinates who appear to leak, the Kremlin has been a bit like the Trump WH and Vlad has been acting as stupid as Donald! He might have been a spymaster, but he is no fucking strategist, soon his empire will be full of spy's, revolutionaries, coup plotters and a majority of the people will hate his guts and think he's an idiot who ruined their lives' and screwed the country. His weakness at home and abroad has been exposed the word will get around, as the stores empty and the pensions become worthless.

In America you had Trumpers, but the bottom never fell out of the economy in a month and America didn't get kicked out of the global community. People will be hungry in Russia by June, it will be that bad IMHO and if farmers can't get financing for spring planting it will get a lot worse. Add to that the fact that we live in the information age and that they still get YouTube in Russia to this day! Almost everybody under 30 has a cellphone in Russia and each one can hold many gigabytes of video, podcasts and written material. Apps like telegram and others can make networking possible and cooperative effort and the tech people won't generally be be big fans of Vlad. In such conditions movements can become popular quickly, especially among youth and they do the fighting, protesting and activism in many cases. Many under paid government and military officials will be sympathetic and unless he gives the local cops and his internal security forces a big raise in pay, among other things like private access to food, they will be sympathetic too.

They don't even need a majority, just a large active minority of fanatics will do the most. A coup is the most likely and probably most desirable outcome, people who know the west is really no threat to Russia and are patriots. Liberal democracy is the only way forward for them, everything else leads to even more disaster and the disaster now cannot be averted and will last for a generation.

 

[CunningCanuk]

i'd very much like to see confirmation of that somehow, but it is entirely plausible

Me too, not that I don’t believe the op. It’s plausible but so is good intelligence work.

 

[cawolves]

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I was wondering how removing sanctions as a bargaining tool would go. That is once Putin pulls out and makes reparations to Ukraine.

Gawd knows how it will go if people put Trump back in power.
Putin will send Trump his shoes to shrine and shine them Trump will.

He won't have a choice about reparations, starting with the most guilty first, we already have their cash and after what they did in Ukraine, they won't get any back until the ALL the costs of the war are covered, including the aid Uncle Sam and the EU gave to the Ukrainians to defend themselves. Every one who lost a home, was made a refugee, was wounded or had relatives who died in Ukraine should be generously compensated from that Russian money too, along with those who helped them, even down to sharing their home with refugees in Europe.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

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Gas is just $1.67 in Canada!

 

[ANC]

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Me too, not that I don’t believe the op. It’s plausible but so is good intelligence work.

The Kremlin has been leaking like a sieve, just like the Trump WH did when the staff there thought he was fucking nuts! Vlad has been acting as stupid as Donald FFS and is operating on a similar level of synthesized reality.

I think Vlad is interfering with army operation, like Hitler did. Those guys north west of Kyiv were suppose to leave and go to the Donbas region in the east, but it appears the order of the general staff has been rescinded, because the troops are still there and digging in. They have no combat power for offensive operations anymore and the local reserves and a small army contingent can hold them there. They will be out of artillery range for Kyiv, while the big regular army moves to another front and defeats another one of Vlad's small armies.

This shit goes back to Napoleon FFS, never divide your forces on several non mutually supporting fronts! Generalship 101, defeat one force with overwhelming numbers, then go for the next one, do it smart and cut off large numbers of the enemy and get them to surrender with good terms, even citizenship and pay, smart move in this circumstance! Once surrounded and reduced, local reserves can hold them and mop up.

I'll be looking for big things in Ukraine in the next couple of weeks, as the Ukrainians larger numbers of soldiers come into play, along with all the high tech they have available. They also have excellent tactical doctrine well suited to motivated soldiers, along with excellent generalship and will be exploiting the Russian's many weaknesses.

 

[Friendly_Grower]

He won't have a choice about reparations, starting with the most guilty first, we already have their cash and after what they did in Ukraine, they won't get any back until the ALL the costs of the war are covered, including the aid Uncle Sam and the EU gave to the Ukrainians to defend themselves. Every one who lost a home, was made a refugee, was wounded or had relatives who died in Ukraine should be generously compensated from that Russian money too, along with those who helped them, even down to sharing their home with refugees in Europe.

YES! We have their cash INDEED!

Thanks for reminding me of that!

 

[schuylaar]

i'd very much like to see confirmation of that somehow, but it is entirely plausible

40 year old gear and 20 year old rations tell the story.

 

[schuylaar]

The Kremlin has been leaking like a sieve, just like the Trump WH did when the staff there thought he was fucking nuts! Vlad has been acting as stupid as Donald FFS and is operating on a similar level of synthesized reality.

I think Vlad is interfering with army operation, like Hitler did. Those guys north west of Kyiv were suppose to leave and go to the Donbas region in the east, but it appears the order of the general staff has been rescinded, because the troops are still there and digging in. They have no combat power for offensive operations anymore and the local reserves and a small army contingent can hold them there. They will be out of artillery range for Kyiv, while the big regular army moves to another front and defeats another one of Vlad's small armies.

This shit goes back to Napoleon FFS, never divide your forces on several non mutually supporting fronts! Generalship 101, defeat one force with overwhelming numbers, then go for the next one, do it smart and cut off large numbers of the enemy and get them to surrender with good terms, even citizenship and pay, smart move in this circumstance! Once surrounded and reduced, local reserves can hold them and mop up.

I'll be looking for big things in Ukraine in the next couple of weeks, as the Ukrainians larger numbers of soldiers come into play, along with all the high tech they have available. They also have excellent tactical doctrine well suited to motivated soldiers, along with excellent generalship and will be exploiting the Russian's many weaknesses.

Zelensky needs to end his 'close the skies and we have no bullets tour'.

 

[cannabineer]

*MORE* plausible than our intelligence services reading the signs spread all over Europe? Not really!

The intelligence services do not issue daily news briefs afaik.

 

[Kerowacked]

Russians have actually done well under the current regime, unemployment under 5%, avg wage up to over $900/month equivalent before the invasion. And a certain pride in Vlad riding horses.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This where that took place, north east of Kyiv on an important highway junction, the north is much more muddy than the south, which tends to be drier. This is also close to the Belarus Border and close to Russian supply lines, once the forces west of Kyiv are defeated and contained, this will probably be next on the Ukrainian hit list. When the Russians are confined to the main roads, blowing up bridges over small rivers and streams, that you don't see in this map view, but far to the Russian rear, can be very helpful for cutting off supplies to the Russians. Then they counter attack them to use up what ammo they have, always trying to cut them off from resupply and forcing mass surrenders with most of the commanders targeted and killed when they can locate them.

 

[cannabineer]

40 year old gear and 20 year old rations tell the story.

The only 20- year-old rations I want are grands crus from the Côte de Nuits.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Russians have actually done well under the current regime, unemployment under 5%, avg wage up to over $900/month equivalent before the invasion. And a certain pride in Vlad riding horses.

They ain't doing so well now and in a couple of months the place will be on fire then things dig in and their might be food shortages and poor people and pensioners can't afford to eat. There will be mass unemployment that will make the great depression look like picnic. War is expensive and this one is sucking up lot's of cash and bleeding Vlad white of cash and military power that can't be replaced for a long time.

Vlad's problem is too many know the truth and most them are young, or smarter older ones, information is pour into Vlad's empire, even if he owns cable and broadcast TV. As conditions deteriorate, that information will have an increasing impact, more quickly than many realize. All things come from Vlad in a totalitarian régime, every one knows Vlad runs the show, and he is the source of everything, both good and bad.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Here is one of Vlad's concerns, if Belarus should fall too and he has two Slavic Russian speaking liberal democratic countries with lot's of economic help from the EU and Russian money. Directed TV broadcast can reach Moscow, depending on terrain and homemade antennas will be sold on the black market for a few rubles or people can DIY their own. They better have free cable in Moscow soon, because not many will be able to afford even basic cable and that would cut Vlad off from much of his base. Modern digital TV's can pick up many channels and if most of the TV broadcast energy is directional it has much greater range, an add on antenna high up of various types can help a lot. Radio of course goes much further than TV, is ubiquitous and can serve those who want to know the truth too. Cut off cable and many of the elderly will turn on the radio, to hear music and programing targeted at them, with western news casts of course.

Just 400km to Moscow from the Belarus border, is less than 250 miles.

 

[Lucky Luke]

Interesting read.

On NATO membership and 'core principles,' the US treads on thin ice

Ukraine supposedly has the 'right' to choose its alliances, but as Washington has proven in its own backyard, no country really does.

responsiblestatecraft.org

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

this belong in the why republicans are fuckbags thread, too, but since it was directly related to the war in Ukraine, i'll post it here
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/599819-rand-paul-standoff-throws-russia-bills-into-limbo?rl=1

it all comes down to fucking abortions...what a fuckbag cocksucker rand paul is...give him what he wants now, so more Ukrainians don't die, then FUCK HIM UP THE MOTHERFUCKING ASS the next time he wants ANYTHING...FUCKING ANYTHING...that is one fucking optometrist that needs to open his own fucking eyes...