Political science? Really.
COVID test positivity rate in Southern Health region soars
Surging COVID-19 cases and a nearly 15 per cent test positivity rate in southern Manitoba are the "tip of the iceberg," sparking warnings the whole province will pay the price.
The spread of novel coronavirus in that region means Manitoba will likely have to add more public health restrictions and/or increase enforcement of the existing rules that limit the number of unvaccinated people who can gather, experts say.
The 14.5 per cent test positivity rate in the Southern Health region, revealed in provincial data Friday, is triple the provincewide number. It indicates there is a much wider spread that is undetected, said Winnipeg medical microbiologist Dr. Philippe Lagace-Wiens.
It means too few tests are being conducted; too many people are not getting tested at all or are not getting tested until they are very sick and need to be admitted to hospital, he said.
"That's very concerning because what it means is that there's probably a large amount of people out there with minor symptoms who are potentially spreading the virus within their communities," he said. "Basically, it suggests that we're seeing the tip of the iceberg, that there's probably a lot more community disease than we know about."
Test positivity in Manitoba, by region Reported on Nov. 3, 2021:
Southern: 14.5
Northern: 9.5
Interlake-Eastern: 5.3
Prairie Mountain: 4.8
Winnipeg: 2.0
On Friday, Manitoba reported 130 new COVID-19 infections and three deaths. Of the cases, 64 were in Southern Health, home to the highest proportion of unvaccinated residents. The provincial average test positivity rate was 4.9 per cent.
Case numbers increasing week over week in the region "are concerning," Health Minister Audrey Gordon said in a prepared statement.
It acknowledged half of Manitoba's ICU patients are Southern Health residents, but was careful not to point the finger of blame.
Surging COVID-19 cases and a nearly 15 per cent test positivity rate in southern Manitoba are the “tip of the iceberg,” sparking warnings the whole province will pay the price. The spread...
www.winnipegfreepress.com
So the Southern Health District has 64 of the 130 cases that day. So basically half of the province number. Let's look at the population of the different districts.
Southern: 14.5% 211,896
Northern: 9.5% 77,283
Interlake-Eastern: 5.3% 133,834
Prairie Mountain: 4.8% 172,641
Winnipeg: 2.0% 791,284
Total 4.9% 1,386,938
So the Southern district which makes up 15% of the province's population where vaccinations are is putting the greatest demand on the hospitals.
Province's reaction to Southern Health COVID-19 crisis is... crickets
It’s not just the test positivity rate or the high number of cases in Southern Health that are cause for concern.
More than half of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (14 out of 24) are from Southern Health and 50 of the 118 hospitalizations come from that region, which makes up about 15 per cent of the Manitoba population.
By contrast, only four ICU patients are from Winnipeg.
The connection between high infection rates and low vaccination uptake in Southern Health is indisputable. Only 65 per cent of people over the age of 12 in that district have received both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. In Winnipeg, it’s 87 per cent. It’s between 79 and 80 per cent in the three other health regions.
Low vaccination uptake is also linked to higher hospitalization rates. Provincewide,
almost three-quarters of active COVID-19 patients in hospital are not fully vaccinated; 95 per cent of active cases in ICU have not been immunized.
If the test positivity rate for COVID-19 rose to double digits in Winnipeg, public health officials would have no choice but to implement strict measures to curb the spread of the virus. Yet the provi...
www.winnipegfreepress.com
This might be a lot of political science for a little berry to comprehend in one sitting though. Mind you, who needs political science when you have your own make belief science to guide you.