Bountiful Precipitation and Full Reservoirs in California

hotrodharley

hotrodharley

Well-Known Member
“In 2016, with much fanfare, the Crystal Serenity spent 32 days sailing through the Northwest Passage. Now, with much less fanfare, Crystal Cruise has cancelled the route.

Two years ago, history was made when the Crystal Serenity passed through the Northwest Passage with more than 1,000 people on board. This luxury cruise liner returned in the summer of 2017 for a second run of the voyage. However, it seems the 2017 voyage was also the final trip for the Crystal Serenity in these northern waters. Crystal Cruise Vice President of Land Programs, John Stoll, answered questions regarding this change via e-mail correspondence with the High North News.”

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/no-more-crystal-serenity-northwest-passage

It was not “blizzarding” then. How many died stranded on the ice for years? Yet now one can ride the “Love Boat “ through from Alaska to NYC
 
Moldy

Moldy

Well-Known Member
squarepush3r said:
Great news everyone!!

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/04/bountiful-precipitation-and-full.html

It was not that long ago, that some folks were wringing their hands about drought in California, claiming that normal rains were a thing of the past. The NY Times and other outlets warned of "permanent" and "unending" drought fueled by global warming.




2013-2015 were dry years, but 2017 was extremely wet, 2018 was near normal, and 2019 is turning out to be a real soaker. The official U.S. Drought Monitor, which often lags behind facts on the ground, officially removed drought status from California this winter.

This winter, the water situation is extraordinarily good for virtually all of California, with their very large reservoir system storing much more water than normal. Let's examine the situation.

Here is the difference from normal of the accumulated precipitation over the past six months. Nearly the entire southwest U.S. was above normal, with parts of California being 8-20 inches above normal...that is a lot in California.



Water storage is everything in California, and unlike Washington State, they have multi-year storage capacity. Why? Because historically California experiences more variation between wet and dry years than the more reliably wet Pacific Northwest.

The current reservoir conditions are excellent, with all of the major reservoirs being well above normal. Some are even near capacity (e.g., San Luis and Lake Shasta).



The other major water storage system is the snowpack....and CA has a HUGE snowpack this year, averaging about 165% of normal (see below).



Streamflow? No worries. Streams are running much above normal or high over the northern portion of the state ( blue and black colors) and near normal over most of the southern half.



Surface soil moisture is above normal for most of the state (not shown).

The bottom line of all this is that California has had an extraordinarily moist winter (and a very wet March) and there will be plenty of water for the urban centers and agriculture this year.

To put things in perspective, below is the California precipitation for November-February 1920-2019 using the NOAA/NWS climate division dataset. March 2010 was not ready yet.

The first thing you notice is that there is virtually no long-term trend. Nada. There are drier years (like 2013-2015) and wetter periods. 2019 was above normal but not exceptional. If March was available, the current winter would have been one of the wetter ones.



This lack of trend in CA winter precipitation is consistent with most climate models simulations I have seen, which suggest no decline in precipitation for central and northern CA under global warming (see a sample from the UW high-resolution climate simulation project I am involved with). In fact, precipitation over the northern portion of CA might even increase.

Click to expand...
It's great we now have some water to work with out west here! However, climate change is happening. In N. NV we had 20 days over 100F compared to 2-3 days a summer 25 years ago. It was over 95F for a record 60 days in a row also happening last summer. It's extreme and if you don't see it or feel it your head has been in the sand... deeply.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
squarepush3r said:
its basic common sense, if the northern hemisphere ice levels are the same today as in 2005, then the fake news about climate change that you believe is easily disproved.
Click to expand...
It was obvious common sense at one time to say the sun travels around the earth. Flat earthers still say this. If its so easy to prove, then cite a peer reviewed paper that supports your claims. There should be plenty of them available.
 
hotrodharley

hotrodharley

Well-Known Member
Moldy said:
It's great we now have some water to work with out west here! However, climate change is happening. In N. NV we had 20 days over 100F compared to 2-3 days a summer 25 years ago. It was over 95F for a record 60 days in a row also happening last summer. It's extreme and if you don't see it or feel it your head has been in the sand... deeply.
Click to expand...
Born and raised in El Paso. The number of 100+ degrees has almost tripled in 40 years. Starting early and staying into the Fall.
 
londonfog

londonfog

Well-Known Member
squarepush3r said:
Great news everyone!!

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/04/bountiful-precipitation-and-full.html

It was not that long ago, that some folks were wringing their hands about drought in California, claiming that normal rains were a thing of the past. The NY Times and other outlets warned of "permanent" and "unending" drought fueled by global warming.




2013-2015 were dry years, but 2017 was extremely wet, 2018 was near normal, and 2019 is turning out to be a real soaker. The official U.S. Drought Monitor, which often lags behind facts on the ground, officially removed drought status from California this winter.

This winter, the water situation is extraordinarily good for virtually all of California, with their very large reservoir system storing much more water than normal. Let's examine the situation.

Here is the difference from normal of the accumulated precipitation over the past six months. Nearly the entire southwest U.S. was above normal, with parts of California being 8-20 inches above normal...that is a lot in California.



Water storage is everything in California, and unlike Washington State, they have multi-year storage capacity. Why? Because historically California experiences more variation between wet and dry years than the more reliably wet Pacific Northwest.

The current reservoir conditions are excellent, with all of the major reservoirs being well above normal. Some are even near capacity (e.g., San Luis and Lake Shasta).



The other major water storage system is the snowpack....and CA has a HUGE snowpack this year, averaging about 165% of normal (see below).



Streamflow? No worries. Streams are running much above normal or high over the northern portion of the state ( blue and black colors) and near normal over most of the southern half.



Surface soil moisture is above normal for most of the state (not shown).

The bottom line of all this is that California has had an extraordinarily moist winter (and a very wet March) and there will be plenty of water for the urban centers and agriculture this year.

To put things in perspective, below is the California precipitation for November-February 1920-2019 using the NOAA/NWS climate division dataset. March 2010 was not ready yet.

The first thing you notice is that there is virtually no long-term trend. Nada. There are drier years (like 2013-2015) and wetter periods. 2019 was above normal but not exceptional. If March was available, the current winter would have been one of the wetter ones.



This lack of trend in CA winter precipitation is consistent with most climate models simulations I have seen, which suggest no decline in precipitation for central and northern CA under global warming (see a sample from the UW high-resolution climate simulation project I am involved with). In fact, precipitation over the northern portion of CA might even increase.

Click to expand...
I bet you have never even left your county, let alone state
 
hotrodharley

hotrodharley

Well-Known Member
“California experienced its deadliest and largest wildfires in the past two years, including a fire in the northern part of the state last year that destroyed the town of Paradise, killing more than 80 people. It was the nation's worst death toll from a wildfire in a century.

The Boise, Idaho-based center said a heavy crop of grasses and fine fuels has developed across California and should elevate fire potential as it dries through the summer

The terms "normal" or "above normal" refer to a formula that involves drought, precipitation and fuel conditions in each region, projected on a 10-year average, said Jennifer Smith of the fire center.

The Pacific Northwest has entered a period of moderate drought, which could mean an early fire season in the Cascade Range and the Okanogan region. The potential for significant wildfires is above normal west of the Cascade crest in Washington and Oregon through August, the report said.

Some high-elevation portions of the Great Basin and the central Rocky Mountains could experience below-normal wildfire potential, the agency said. It also said that below average fire activity continued in April across the nation, thanks to moist conditions from the winter.

"Precipitation received was above average across the northwestern quarter of the nation and across a majority of the east," the agency said.

https://www.kdrv.com/content/news/Agency-predicts-heavy-wildfire-season-along-West-Coast-509330761.html?fbclid=IwAR3dOO2tTVZzJjuPWih4n9Rx9fRUKQkAFTr-agu0eb5Tt_6RAhvivvpGEdI
 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
hotrodharley said:
“This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. ”

https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234
Click to expand...
Is there a pool for the first appearance of a completely ice free Arctic ocean? I'm pretty sure we'll see it within 5 years.

The Russians are already promoting Arctic shipping lanes.

Global warming is happening faster and to a far greater degree the further north you go. It doesn't surprise me at all that Alaskans recognize the severity of the situation.

But there's too much money to be made drilling, refining and burning oil, not to mention all the weapons for fighting over it.
 
hotrodharley

hotrodharley

Well-Known Member
ttystikk said:
Is there a pool for the first appearance of a completely ice free Arctic ocean? I'm pretty sure we'll see it within 5 years.

The Russians are already promoting Arctic shipping lanes.

Global warming is happening faster and to a far greater degree the further north you go. It doesn't surprise me at all that Alaskans recognize the severity of the situation.

But there's too much money to be made drilling, refining and burning oil, not to mention all the weapons for fighting over it.
Click to expand...
Our new idiot amateur Governor sent a letter to Trump wanting more federal strength in making shit happen here for the drillers and the miners. He wants drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge today. Not tomorrow but today. He wants all the proposed mines approved now. Not after the required reviews and EIS. It’s happening too. The Army Corps of Engineers hauling ass on the extremely unpopular Pebble Mine.

The big kicker is the Trump administration furnishing seismology studies to drillers. That’s the drilling company’s responsibility and financial burden. Except not anymore. If us paying so Exxon will drill is what it takes then Trump is more than glad for us (not him because he’s an overall fiscal leech) to pay it.
 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
hotrodharley said:
Our new idiot amateur Governor sent a letter to Trump wanting more federal strength in making shit happen here for the drillers and the miners. He wants drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge today. Not tomorrow but today. He wants all the proposed mines approved now. Not after the required reviews and EIS. It’s happening too. The Army Corps of Engineers hauling ass on the extremely unpopular Pebble Mine.

The big kicker is the Trump administration furnishing seismology studies to drillers. That’s the drilling company’s responsibility and financial burden. Except not anymore. If us paying so Exxon will drill is what it takes then Trump is more than glad for us (not him because he’s an overall fiscal leech) to pay it.
Click to expand...
I am saddened but not surprised.

Alaska could completely replace fossil fuel consumption with wind power and battery storage. It's not like there isn't plenty of wind.

I heard today on NPR's Science Friday that methane levels in parts of the Arctic are as high as 85ppm. That's not a typo; 85 parts per Million, not billion. Considering that it's between 30 and 85 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, I'd say a reading that is cause for serious concern.

I wonder how you might go about capturing methane from melting permafrost or bubbling up from melting clathrates underwater. It would be a planetary public service to capture and burn that!
 
Moldy

Moldy

Well-Known Member
ttystikk said:
I am saddened but not surprised.

Alaska could completely replace fossil fuel consumption with wind power and battery storage. It's not like there isn't plenty of wind.

I heard today on NPR's Science Friday that methane levels in parts of the Arctic are as high as 85ppm. That's not a typo; 85 parts per Million, not billion. Considering that it's between 30 and 85 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, I'd say a reading that is cause for serious concern.

I wonder how you might go about capturing methane from melting permafrost or bubbling up from melting clathrates underwater. It would be a planetary public service to capture and burn that!
Click to expand...
Yes, it's at that point that our grandkids (great grandkids in my case) will experience deadly climate change and possibly the beginning of human extinction.

 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
Moldy said:
Yes, it's at that point that our grandkids (great grandkids in my case) will experience deadly climate change and possibly the beginning of human extinction.

Click to expand...
If this isn't the best reason ever to empty into the streets to take our political system back from the corporatists then I'd like to see a better one.

It's our future. We just have to want one badly enough.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top