War

Budzbuddha said:

The Ukrainians are quite clever in their guerrilla warfare tactics / methods. They turn commercial drones into death droppers so it is not hard to fathom a “ suicide truck “ or 2 primed with explosives.

If they managed to wire up a rail car instead then the damage would beextremely severe. Even grain can become explosive.

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Yep a tanker car full of ANFO from a rented warehouse in Russia with a rail siding and a few bribes and lots of cash. Just tell the railway to pick it up and deliver it to Crimea. Something as simple as a cellphone, power bank and an app can set it off using GPS and the headphone jack wired to the detonator, like an IED, only using GPS to go off over the bridge, or give it a phone call when it gets there. 50 tons of ANFO with an HE booster wouldn't leave much but a crater.

Keeping with the war theme - Idiot kimjung midget just launched another “ ballastic projectile “ over japan.

I can totally picture truck drivers jamming this and yelling “ glory to ukraine “ before detonating.

The first train passed through the Crimean bridge after the permission of the Ministry of Transport. Video
The first freight train passed through the Crimean bridge after the Ministry of Transport gave permission for movement. This was reported by the press service of the department.

“Permission has been received for the movement of trains on the Crimean bridge! The first test train on the railway track was successful, ”the press service of the Ministry of Transport said in the official telegram channel of the department.

Marat Khasulin, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation and curator of the Southern Directions, said that passenger trains would pass over the bridge at night. “The first freight trains crossed the Crimean bridge. Passengers will leave soon. It is planned to let 12 passenger trains through overnight alone,” he wrote on Telegram.

the great thing is once you creat a weak point in a bridge, you know where to hit it again.

This was a railway fuel depot and will make Russian rail operations more difficult, attacks on the railways are attacks on Russian logistics, fuel and transport. The Ukrainians are generally focused on rail hubs and rail heads in most of their offensive drives in the east, the rail network is the most dense there. Capturing rail hubs and railheads in lighting strikes to panic the Russians, often results in a rich harvest of ammo and equipment as a bonus, in addition to cutting off supply from the Russians downstream and forcing them to panic as well.

Now that they can get 15 years for retreat and have poor communications with officers targeted, they often desert their troops without giving them orders to retreat and they hear the battles behind them and can't contact the chain of command. To add to their confusion Ukraine jams their comms and spoofs them with false orders and reports, they can even call in Russian artillery onto Russian positions or order them to fire on empty fields using up ammo. The Russian side is becoming a complete shitshow as experienced officers are chewed up and the replacements are 3rd grade by now and with a lot of reservists and people with no training and shit for equipment.

Budzbuddha said:

I can totally picture truck drivers jamming this and yelling “ glory to ukraine “ before detonating.

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A little humor for that song, it starts about halfway thru.

ANC said:

the great thing is once you creat a weak point in a bridge, you know where to hit it again.

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All that fire cannot have been good for the structural steel.

I just watched a slow motion video of the bridge explosion. The truck was not the center of the blast. It looks like an air burst of some sort, a bright flash in the sky...

doublejj said:

I just watched a slow motion video of the bridge explosion. The truck was not the center of the blast. It looks like an air burst of some sort, a bright flash in the sky...

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That's seemed strange to me too, but at that height the other road lane would have more damage. However what kind of airburst could do that and what would be able to carry it? An old, damaged airliner filled with barrels of HE or ANFO and converted into a GPS guided cruise missile accompanied by decoy drones would do the job, but an ATCAMS would probably only have a 2 or 300 lb warhead.

DIY-HP-LED said:

That's seemed strange to me too, but at that height the other road lane would have more damage. However what kind of airburst could do that and what would be able to carry it? An old, damaged airliner filled with barrels of HE or ANFO and converted into a GPS guided cruise missile accompanied by decoy drones would do the job, but an ATCAMS would probably only have a 2 or 300 lb warhead.

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I posted about it and quoted you.

cannabineer said:

I posted about it and quoted you.

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It seems a weird event based on the scant evidence thus far, but it was a very large blast involving a lot of explosives. For instance, audio that was recorded should show multiple blasts and shockwaves. There might also be more video of the attack forthcoming, but it seems large for a missile which would have targeted the rail bridge.

DIY-HP-LED said:

It seems a weird event based on the scant evidence thus far, but it was a very large blast involving a lot of explosives. For instance, audio that was recorded should show multiple blasts and shockwaves. There might also be more video of the attack forthcoming, but it seems large for a missile which would have targeted the rail bridge.

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It does have weird features on the first-pass info. It’ll be interesting to see the analyses evolve.

printer said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578767217537486850

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Годзылла, as good a hypothesis as any!

The partial destruction of the bridge might end up being better temporarily, it will allow the Russian sympathizers and quislings a chance to escape and makes winning the peace easier. I expect a lot of one-way rail passenger and road traffic out of Crimea as the rats run. When they drive to the sea of Azov to cut the land bridge, the Russians will have to stop them in a final battle. If they get to the coast, they can bring down the rest of the Kerch bridge and can attack a vital rail junctions in Metropol and northern Crimea with HIMARS. It also makes staying southwestern Ukraine difficult for the Russians with the possibility of being cut off there and in Crimea. They just need to cut the railways; the tanks travel long distances using them, wear out after a few hundred miles on the road and start throwing their tracks, railways also transport, fuel ammo and replacements.

It looks dire for the Russians as their options shrink and the Ukrainians expand with the shifting balance of forces and their quality. Soon the Russian could be down by 20 or 30 BTGs with tens of thousands of men and the Ukrainians will be getting enough Russian equipment to field several new battalions along with enough ammo to kill a lot of them. The balance of forces and their quality is shifting quickly with the Ukrainians gaining huge advantages in numbers of fighting forces, their quality and their effectiveness. They are also getting more western weapons too and that just adds to the weight of the forces they are pressing the Russians with.

Many organizations supporting the war are coming into fruition, like the massive expansion and creation of a drone air force, others are repurposing boats and yachts for crossing the Dnieper or are helping with preparing the troops for winter. Replacement troops are being trained in several countries and there are probably more replacements than loses lately with more in the pipeline, plus the Ukrainians are training new battalions inside Ukraine with plenty of retired outside expert help. Then there are the territorials and reservists who multiply the army's combat power.

DIY-HP-LED said:

The partial destruction of the bridge might end up being better temporarily, it will allow the Russian sympathizers and quislings a chance to escape and makes winning the peace easier. I expect a lot of one-way rail passenger and road traffic out of Crimea as the rats run. When they drive to the sea of Azov to cut the land bridge, the Russians will have to stop them in a final battle. If they get to the coast, they can bring down the rest of the Kerch bridge and can attack a vital rail junctions in Metropol and northern Crimea with HIMARS. It also makes staying southwestern Ukraine difficult for the Russians with the possibility of being cut off there and in Crimea. They just need to cut the railways; the tanks travel long distances using them, wear out after a few hundred miles on the road and start throwing their tracks, railways also transport, fuel ammo and replacements.

It looks dire for the Russians as their options shrink and the Ukrainians expand with the shifting balance of forces and their quality. Soon the Russian could be down by 20 or 30 BTGs with tens of thousands of men and the Ukrainians will be getting enough Russian equipment to field several new battalions along with enough ammo to kill a lot of them. The balance of forces and their quality is shifting quickly with the Ukrainians gaining huge advantages in numbers of fighting forces, their quality and their effectiveness. They are also getting more western weapons too and that just adds to the weight of the forces they are pressing the Russians with.

Many organizations supporting the war are coming into fruition, like the massive expansion and creation of a drone air force, others are repurposing boats and yachts for crossing the Dnieper or are helping with preparing the troops for winter. Replacement troops are being trained in several countries and there are probably more replacements than loses lately with more in the pipeline, plus the Ukrainians are training new battalions inside Ukraine with plenty of retired outside expert help. Then there are the territorials and reservists who multiply the army's combat power.

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The third route between Dzhankoi and Novooleksiyka across the Sivash is an option besides Perekop and Kerch.

captainmorgan said:

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in the comments section of the vid you posted:

I'm a retired FF. Now a arson investigator. Look at the parts that was dropped where the "Truck bomb" was supposed to be. The painted lines are bubbled not burned. The heat of the explosion was under the bridge. If it was on the bridge, the lines would have been completely black. Oil based paint holds carbon

cannabineer said:

The third route between Dzhankoi and Novooleksiyka across the Sivash is an option besides Perekop and Kerch.

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All roads and especially railroads lead Dahankoy and there is no alternate rail route to western Crimea, it should be in HIMARS range from the coast, if they can get in Range. If Vlad uses tactical nuke anywhere it would be at the entrance to Crimea in order to stop a Ukrainian advance. However poor communications and Russian troops on the ground who don't want to get nuked themselves and who are reluctant to report retreats because of prison time might make this option a problem.

Nobody in the area wants to get a nuke dropped by an inaccurate Russian missile that could be miles off target, even the Russians. Would you call Vlad if the Ukrainians were breaking through, you couldn't surrender, or retreat and your news would be met by an inaccurate nuke of unknown size going off in your AO inside 10 minutes from your call!