War

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Whoever does do Vlad will withdraw from Ukraine and try to consolidate power at home, since there will be division about it at all levels. They will have a lot of pieces to pick up and a lot of house cleaning to do, the military is still the power in the land, and they can't be happy, so they will need them too. They will need peace and relief from some sanctions ASAP, and they won't be liberal democrats either, but they will need internal stability.


Retired general explains who could remove Putin from power
164,623 views Sep 18, 2022 Retired General Wesley Clark discusses dissent inside Russia against Vladimir Putin as his invasion of Ukraine falters.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I disagree that nothing important strategically has happened, Russia just got screwed and in a month the screwing will be much larger in Kherson than in the east. I think they will go to the sea of Azov, threaten the Kerch Bridge and force the Russians out from behind their defenses in the Donbas to try and stop them on open ground. I think this could happen before winter too, Russian forces in southern Ukraine and Crimea cut off sometime this winter, if the Kerch Bridge goes. The ground in the south is sandier and they can operate on it in wet conditions, likely in the fall.


Ukraine war: Russia's 'robotic effort' in Kherson
39,273 views Sep 18, 2022 Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell gives an update on troop mobilisation across Ukraine. He mentions a "robotic effort" from Russian forces in and around Kherson in southern Ukraine and the possibility of negotiations taking place if Russia is successful in the Donbas region.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
doubt Russia will use whatever missiles it has left on a drilling rig or capped gas well buried in the ground.
i think they might...that would be a direct threat to their largest source of income.
it might even be a good idea to build some dummie rigs and let it get out that they've found enough gas to take care of the needs of the entire EU for the next several winters...i'll bet the russians expend a few missiles on those dummies.
 

xtsho

Well-Known Member
i'd buy a copy, as long as the proceeds go to rebuild Ukraine
What's sad is that nobody invaded Russia but it's a mess as well and needs to be rebuilt after decades of corruption under leadership from the likes of pootin. It's a third world country with some old crappy military.

Every morning when I wake up I'm glad I wake up as a US citizen in the United States of America and not in Russia. That place is a shithole.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
i think they might...that would be a direct threat to their largest source of income.
it might even be a good idea to build some dummie rigs and let it get out that they've found enough gas to take care of the needs of the entire EU for the next several winters...i'll bet the russians expend a few missiles on those dummies.
Better they use the missiles on them, than on cities and dummy rigs can be created too. The gas reserves are already proven to be there and are mapped, they did a lot of exploration around 2010 and pulled out when the war in Donbas began. Gas from Russia was cheap back then and now there is no more, and gas is expensive in Europe. There is a fortune to be made, all I'm saying is let greed do its work by backing up the losses of private drilling rig contractors due to military action, reduce the financial risk for them to that of peacetime conditions. They will have AA missile systems that can defend gas processing plants and if the gas is for Europe, they will supply enough of them.

The point is it might be time to plan this and even to begin drilling the wells and capping them. The Russians are there, but they have very little offensive capability and few missiles left. In another month or two they might be struggling to survive in Ukraine and more gas fields can be opened up. Greed is a powerful force and there are vast fortunes to be made, as soon as the gas flows, so they will do it ASAP, wartime fast, no gas no money.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Geopolitics, a result of the Ukraine war revealing Russian weakness, Uncle Sam and everybody else is reassessing the threat they pose. This is just one of example of nobody is afraid of the big bad bear anymore, Pelosi's words look like they are being backed up by money and arms. An internationally brokered peace deal would be part of it too, Uncle Sam wants peace in the region too and perhaps future pipelines, so does Turkey and it's in their backyard.

These countries had better sell their oil and gas while they can because there is gonna be a best before date on fossil fuels pretty soon and that might be sooner than many people think. The latest research and modeling of global warming is dire and calls for far more immediate mitigation than we are currently doing. So, look for timetables to be bumped up in the next decade and Russia like economic sanctions to be part of compliance, even for America. Russia's and many other countries oil wealth could be locked in the earth, like coal is now or soon will be. They might sell it while they can and when coupled with more EVs on the roads and energy saving measures, could see a steady drop in oil prices and gasoline prices, as demand drops off.

The science and extreme weather are gonna drive this and faster rise in sea levels will help to get the ball rolling too. Russia like economic sanctions will be applied to nations that don't comply, even invasions and regime change, along with technical and financial aid, the carrot and the stick, there is no other way.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I figured eastern Poland would become and logistical and training hub for Ukraine, NATO moved out of Germany and went east. Meanwhile Germany is rearming, and Europe is more confident they can deal with Vlad on their own or will be soon enough. I doubt in a few years there will be any American combat troops in Europe, the investment in Ukraine today, will pay off for decades to come. How much did the USA spend annually to maintain forces in Europe to counter Russia, never mind the USSR!

What America gives to Ukraine during this war is probably a fraction of the cost of maintaining all those troops and bases in Europe. This is an investment, not a cost and a good investment too, this is also the best bet Uncle Sam ever had. It will also conveniently reap retribution of epic proportions on Vlad and Russia for fucking with America and helping to install Trump while promoting fascism in America. America is not alone either, most of your allies in this war have been fucked over by Vlad themselves, the Brits had weapons of mass destruction used on their soil as weapons of assassination FFS.

Besides, there is a real possibility that all the aid to Ukraine might be paid back, between seized Russian money and property abroad and future gas revenues from Ukraine. If they displace Russia as Europe's gas supplier, what they been given thus far would be a small fraction of their annual revenues


 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I think the Canadian M777s delivered had electronics on them, we also delivered Excalibur shells early in the war too. America delivered 127 M777s, but allies also delivered them too, plus other artillery like the German pz2000 and the French Ceasar and others. Then there is the Russian shit that they are accumulating in large amounts. It might be worth refurbishing it and giving it to Vlad's many neighbors and enemies, if Ukraine can't use it. Make work and allies too using refurbished Russian junk.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
If you are Ukrainian, you're lucky that your highly effective offensive started at the beginning of the US election season. Wars can be good for American presidents and this one will be good for Joe and the Ukrainians will help him, as he helps them to go for it over the next 50 days or so! It's not so much that they know the democrats are antifascist and prodemocracy, as taking advantage of favorable circumstances! If the Ukrainians score a major victory over the Russians before the election and it is highly likely they will, it should be worth a few points to Joe and the democrats. It isn't hard to tie the Russians around the MAGA republican's necks and associate one fascist loser with another they were in bed with.

The Ukrainian war has made the fight for democracy stark and divided the GOP like abortion, the idea of white Christians fighting for liberty with guns from big government is deeply appealing to many of them, even the MAGATs. It shows you what a people at war are like, tribalism in action and it is plain to see many MAGATs are at war with Uncle Sam, the constitution, the rule of law, democracy and common decency. In Ukraine the threat is real and the social response appropriate, in America the threat is made up bullshit and is highly inappropriate and a threat to a liberal democracy with the rule of law.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

“Where is The Russian Navy?” - The War in Ukraine with General Ben Hodges - Episode 2

The Renew Democracy Initiative brings you the next episode of our video series on the war in Ukraine in collaboration with New Debate and General Ben Hodges. A lot has happened in the war since our last episode; join General Hodges as he expertly walks through the latest battlefield updates and what the Free World can expect to come next. We offer an inside look at how Ukraine succeeded in its most recent counteroffensive, the roots of Russian soldiers’ unwillingness to fight, Ukraine’s ability to wage an asymmetric war successfully, and what continued international support for Ukraine should look like.

General Ben comments on the disorganization of the retreating Russian troops, exhibited by the prevalence of Russian equipment, weapons, and garbage left behind in previously captured territories. He states that this display demonstrates a severe lack of discipline, reflecting that Russian soldiers are unprepared to fight. However, the Russian army doesn’t just lack discipline, they lack numbers as well. Hodges says they are struggling with recruitment and mass mobilization to gather the necessary troops to continue fighting and replenish their ranks. On the other hand, Ukrainians are in no short supply of motivated soldiers, eager to push out the occupiers.

Ukraine is winning an asymmetric war. Not only are Russian forces failing on land in the northeast, but they are also failing at sea, as Hodges comments on the state of the Russian navy. The Black Sea fleet of the Russian navy is hiding behind Crimea. The fleet will not even attempt to go near the coastline, as they fear Ukraine’s ability to strike them down using precision missiles and drones. The Russian navy is not in this fight, and if they continue to hide, they will soon be destroyed.

General Hodges argues that western sanctions are working. Russia is struggling to access crucial precision weaponry and components to operate them. They have even turned to authoritarian partners such as North Korea for artillery ammunition. Hodges believes the combined impact of sanctions on the Russian population and substantial battlefield losses over the next two to three months will increase the pressure on the Kremlin. Ukrainian victory is inevitable if Western nations can stick together, deliver on their promises, and maintain sanctions.

Hodges knows that this will not be an easy task. Winter is coming, and many Western citizens will feel the harmful effects of sanctions and rising energy costs. But he reminds us that this war is about more than economics. It is about stopping Russia from harming its neighbors. It is about the worldwide battle between democracy and autocracy. The Free World must be willing to show dictators worldwide that we will stand our ground in the face of personal costs. Only then can we help Ukraine achieve victory against the Russian threat.


Presented by:
Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges. United States Army
 
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