War

DIY-HP-LED said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569417017756631041

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they better be careful not to overextend themselves, or putin could horsewhip enough orcs back into Ukraine to be a real problem. reinforce all the border crossings, leave enough men garrisoned in the general area to respond to any russian attacks, don't pull too many away when the southern offensive kicks off...

Roger A. Shrubber said:

they better be careful not to overextend themselves, or putin could horsewhip enough orcs back into Ukraine to be a real problem. reinforce all the border crossings, leave enough men garrisoned in the general area to respond to any russian attacks, don't pull too many away when the southern offensive kicks off...

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That's what the large reserves and territorials are for, they were ordered to fight outside their districts months ago and should be moving into retaken territory. They can hold or slow down any Russian moves, besides, they have allied intelligence and drones to give them advanced warning. They don't need to worry about surprises today, nearly as much as in the past, good intelligence allows them to take bigger risks. The older guys will hold the ground, mop up man the check points, gather up the equipment and man defensive positions near the border. Some of their territorial units are as good as regular troops and many have combat experience. Besides if you have almost half the Russian army or their equipment in the bag they don't represent a threat. The Russians seem to have trouble keeping their exhausted troops from running, much less getting them to attack.

Remember when Russia walked into an obvious trap in Kherson Oblast and everyone knew it except Russia? Well, they finally caught on.

Rumors about this have swirled for the past several days, with reports of entire units abandoning their positions or of Russian forces collapsing their lines closer to Kherson city, so that artillery on the other side of the Dnipro River can help support them. But this isn’t a rumor. It’s sourced to the Ukrainian military itself. So several things might be happening:

1) It’s psyops. It’s all fiction, meant to pressure Russian units in the area into quitting. If they believe their fellow countrymen are negotiating a way out, they might not want to be left holding the bag.

2) It’s true, but it’s some units negotiating. There’s no single command for this axis—there’s Rosgvardia (Putin’s personal national guard), VDV airborne, Russian naval infantry, regular Russian army, proxy forces from Luhansk and Donetsk, and who knows what else, and all answer to different commands.

3) It’s true, and somehow, Ukraine is negotiating with that entire mishmash of an occupying force.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych thinks it’s the second option.


Assuming it’s the second or third option, Ukraine’s negotiating position should be simple: Russian forces can happily withdraw into a POW camp after handing their equipment over. Seriously, “We’re out of ammo, please let us out with all our gear” is not a particularly well-leveraged negotiating position. There’s no plausible “or else...” that is even remotely compelling to Ukraine. The only one that applies here is “or else the occupiers die.”

So yeah, this:


Aretovych says that “In places where Russian forces demonstrate resistance, Ukrainians are firing shells with leaflets calling for surrender. An unofficial report says there are 5,000 Russian POWs in Ukrainian hands.” This pause to rest, refit, refuel, and repair forces used in the Kharkiv offensive is a great time to coax Russian and proxy forces to surrender.

We’ve seen Russians overrun, and we’ve seen them run. We hadn’t seen them play dead though:

Poland alone wants 500 of them!
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HIMARS rockets have been a 'game changer' in Ukraine, and the US Army is now looking for ways to build up to 500 more

• US-made High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems have helped Ukraine turn the tide against Russia.
• The success of HIMARS is likely to raise demand for the weapon — Taiwan already wants to buy more.
• Now the US Army is looking for companies that can build up to 100 HIMARS launchers a year.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces are continuing to make impactful gains in Kherson Oblast and are steadily degrading the morale and combat capabilities of Russian forces in this area.
• The Russian military command may be suspending the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall degraded morale.
• Russian forces are failing to reinforce the new frontline following Ukrainian gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and are actively fleeing the area or redeploying to other axes.
• Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian military assets and positions in Kherson Oblast, likely steadily degrading them.
• The Ukrainian recapture of Izyum has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk highway.
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced the restoration of the second reserve power transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive is damaging Russian administrative capabilities and driving Russian departures from occupied parts of Ukraine far behind the line of contact.

www.criticalthreats.org/…

Looks like they aren't stopping yet, a bit of a pause, then back on the offensive. I figure reservists are moving into the reclaimed territory to support the Army's offensive, I can see local reservists from all over Ukraine heading east and perhaps south too, since their local areas are no longer under threat. They look like they might go through Luhansk and attack Donetsk from the north and rear. The local DPR forces have been decimated as Russian cannon fodder and the population has largely turned against them, those that don't are trying to get into Russia and some are being turned away. I guess Russia fears the regions will become depopulated of their supporters.

I checked operator Starsky's YouTube Channel, he is with a territorial unit west of Kyiv, near the airport. No activity for 5 days, so he must be busy supporting the offensive in some way, his unit looked combat ready and they are experienced. He was doing PR videos for the Ukrainian army, escorting reporters and doing interviews with media before the offensive.

They will be a major humiliation to Russia if they should go on war crimes trials, so they should be worth a lot of Ukrainians in exchange, the same would go for any Russian generals captured I imagine. They might get trials and sentences, but could be exchanged after.

Exploit battlefield advantages and breakthroughs to the maximum, good intelligence and drones can speed the process by identifying relevant threats. They can advance down the highways as fast as their vehicles can go, if Drones have scouted ahead and the local resistance is operating and reporting where the Russians are. I think they will keep going until the ammo runs low, then continue on with captured Russian ammo for as long as they can, they don't need a lot of ammo when they encircle enemy troops and cut them off from their ammo and supplies while roaming freely in their largely empty rear.

The Russians are in deep trouble on two main battle fronts, the east and in the south, both places could see large numbers of Russians captured and a lot more territory reclaimed in the next month. The allies appear to be shoveling more equipment and ammo in the back door, the US at least anticipated this and the new supplies were flowing from day 1 of the offensive. A principle of war is you always reinforce success, the Ukrainians know this and so do the allies.

It looks so strange seeing these 40+-year-olds on the frontline... usually it is filled with kids.

Yep, looks like Starsky is redeployed to the east, he's a press officer and escorting reporters and those collecting war crimes evidence in the wake of the Ukrainian advance. Here is his twitter feed, no time to make videos!

"according to the police the victims were shot and their ears were cut off before burying"
probably not in that order.