The Ukrainians might have had 25,000 dead troops, but I figure the Russians have suffered two to three times their number and maybe more, because of poor medical treatment and infrastructure. They have only had a fraction of the predicted civilian casualty rate, people just move out before they level the place, these days.
The Russians are exhausted and the replacements are shit, morale is rock bottom and troops drawn from distant rural republics are dying and causing problems back home. The west needs to be careful if it wants a long war, the Ukrainian troops will overperform and the Russians might run and abandon equipment without ammo and especially without fuel or leadership left alive. One thing is for sure, they will go for Crimea and all Hell will breakout when they do. Vlad might not have very much left in Crimea to defend it and if the bridge at Kerch is blown along with an attack on the south, he will be fucked.
HIMARS drive their logistical support back to the railheads where the trains are unloaded and the ammo stacked for the trucks. When they reach those with HIMARS, it's game over and they have to withdraw. They also have to withdraw because their forward ammo dumps are getting hammered and their artillery support is falling way off in areas as their ammo goes up in smoke miles to their rear. It all adds up to getting pushed back to a critical railhead on a front and the Ukrainians destroying it, they could also do the same thing by getting in range of vital rail bridges. The Russians depend on the rails and are light on trucks, so since it's summer, special forces and partisans should be targeting them with mines and IEDs behind their lines. You might use an artillery shell on a truck, but probably not waste a HIMARS, however they should be easy targets for special forces operating behind the lines at night. You can use a cellphone to detonate an IED from miles away while well hidden and the risks are low.
