I really just don't understand what you're getting at, but I'll try to answer every question that you posted.
Since there is so much debate over the 5x5 and cultivation in general, and the (possible) overlap between that part of the bill and the CUA/MMP, if 19 passes, will people still be able to get doctors rec's and, by what everyone is saying, cultivate however much they want, without restrictions in regards to growing space?
Yes they will, doctor's recs will still be going out; however, not nearly as many people will be getting them, because most people who have gotten a rec in the past (myself included) did not have a very good reason to get one. Other than the fact that I wanted to smoke weed without getting arrested. There are restrictions to growing space, there always has been. In most cases (cities that I have lived in), it's 10 immature plants and 10 mature plants.
Therefore, in order to be part of the action in commerce, ordinary people will simply need to get a doctors rec to grow, and distribute as much as they possibly can to dispensaries and other patients, and quite possibly to the "black market" ?
This already happens, most growers with cards that I know of get the card so they can distribute their buds and make money, not because of some ailment. The limit will still be 99 plants, unless you get the commercial license that will be heavily monitored by the state, eliminating any chance of black market. People disobeying the law now, will disobey it in the future too. The difference, everyone can grow now so the dependency on others for weed is minimal. Why would you buy from a cartel when you can pump out two pounds or more to yourself every 3-4 months. This is actually trying to stop growers from getting their cards just to distribute. 215 has been heavily abused, and can be easily seen in many areas of California.
What would be the point of passing all new legislation that can be so easily cast aside? What good does 19 do the state, if all it takes to avoid what will more than likely be thousands of dollars in taxes annually is a $35 doctors rec? Wouldn't that just be, as supporters of the bill have put it "more of the same"?
19's major purpose is to differentiate between medical and recreational users. It will also make the state shit tons of money to get rid of this terrible deficit that we have. Taxes are going to go up in someway or another. Why not have the price of weed go down, and the taxes on it go up. Once weed becomes legal and readily accessible, then it will be bought very regularly.The price will stay relatively the same, and we won't have to get fucked in the ass by some other taxes that we will need to pay in the future. Also, most dispensaries in my area (San Francisco) are starting to tax as well.
Also, how could the commercial interests backing 19 benefit from making it legal for the entire 21 and over population of the state to possess cannabis if they cant possibly compete with a market that has way more advantages in regards to abundant supply and more relaxed regulations?
I don't exactly know what you're asking. If you're referring to dispensaries vs commercial sale of marijuana, dispensaries are way less relaxed in regards to regulations. And, in a few years (if 19 passes) will have a much much smaller supply. Fact of the matter is, dispensaries will probably still have extremely good bud, but they will most likely only be used by medical patients, which is the way it should be.
On the flip side of this coin, what will be the motivation for the "casual smoker" to patronize the commercial establishments, with their elevated overhead and strict regulatory scrutiny which will more than likely spell higher prices, versus just getting the doctors rec and going medical?
The state is not going to make inconvenient for itself to make money. I agree with you that government does a great job of fucking shit up, but California has realized that it really does need weed to become legal in order to get out of the shits. Government's main motivating factor is money, and if people start getting fucked by publicly buying weed then they will get their cards and we will have the same situation that is already happening with dispensaries now. The government knows this, so it is in their best interest to satisfy the customer. By the time 19 can get out of hand, more props will be passed that make marijuana laws even more relaxed for recreational use. (I think that there is one proposed on the 2012 ballot). Unless you think that our state's deficit will go away in a year because of marijuana, I don't think you need to worry about the government fucking people over. It's not until they no longer need the stoners that they will try to take advantage of them, and by that time, more props will pass giving us the advantage. You can climb any mountain, you just need to take small steps, 215 was the first step, and 19 is the second.
It just doesnt make sense to me that people with millions riding on the passage and eventual commercial sales of MJ to leave a less regulated and more than likely less expensive competitor. It doesnt make sense to make things harder on yourself, and to pay millions of dollars to do it. It just doesn't make sense for 19 to leave 215 intact if EVERYTHING that is being SAID about 215 being left intact is true.
The major investors will probably find ways to make more money then they put in. They see this as an opportunity to gain, so they are willing to support it. I have already showed you that 215 will stay intact, no where in the prop does it say that it won't. The investors are simply trying to make money where they see that they can. Just look at the 60,000 sqft building in Oakland for fuck's sake. If 19 passes they will be beyond rich. I don't see why anyone who had the means to invest in legalizing a substance that is used by almost everyone in California would not.
Hopefully this answered something. 19 is in my best interest because I no longer carry large quantities of weed in public, and I grow for my own personal stash. To do this without paying $50 a year would be very nice for me. If you're in the same boat then 19 is great for you too.
