The LED "Arms race".....

Thundercat said:

Reduced cost for the same tech is the correct direction. Getting over 3.0 efficacy is great and all, but not if the light costs 9x what an HPS does. But if the market gets the 2.3-2.5 range down to $1/w on prebuilt fixtures, then you will see a massive shift towards LED.

Click to expand...

I respectfully disagree.

You're ignoring the valid argument of return on investment over time.

If the light saves you enough in energy costs over time to justify the price difference without a reduction in yield or quality, that's worth paying for.

The question then becomes how long you're willing to wait to recoup your investment. Old school growers always want it paid for in one crop. The new business professionals now taking over the industry understand that an ROI measured in years can still be a very wise investment.

My own technology is aimed directly at this ROI, by allowing the operator to save on his overall electrical cost of operation, not just from the lighting. This has the benefit of substantially shortening that ROI while simultaneously ensuring a competitive advantage by allowing him to produce at lower cost than anyone else.

ttystikk said:

I respectfully disagree.

You're ignoring the valid argument of return on investment over time.

If the light saves you enough in energy costs over time to justify there price difference without a reduction in yield or quality, that's worth paying for.

The question then becomes how long you're willing to wait to recoup your investment. Old school growers always want it paid for in one crop. The new business professionals now taking over the industry understand that an ROI measured in years can still be a very wise investment.

Click to expand...

I totally considered ROI over time , and that the current lights eventually will pay for themselves. I said you would see a massive shift in the industry if the price got down to a fair point for not the newest tech.

Tons of people would jump off HPS if they could get a faster ROI . I only spend $30 a month to run my 1k HPS and another $70 a year on a new bulb. Even if I cut my electrical usage in half, for the same amount of light and coverage it would take me over 4 years to get an ROI on a $1000+ light. So sure after 4 years that light will actually make me a little more money then not buying it. In the mean time it won't .

Thundercat said:

I totally considered ROI over time , and that the current lights eventually will pay for themselves. I said you would see a massive shift in the industry if the price got down to a fair point for not the newest tech.

Tons of people would jump off HPS if they could get a faster ROI . I only spend $30 a month to run my 1k HPS and another $70 a year on a new bulb. Even if I cut my electrical usage in half, for the same amount of light and coverage it would take me over 4 years to get an ROI on a $1000+ light. So sure after 4 years that light will actually make me a little more money then not buying it. In the mean time it won't .

Click to expand...

What these guys are ignoring is that at that 4 year mark when the fixture paid for itself it will be time to replace it and start the cycle over again. Led does not last forever...

My 3590s are at the five year mark. Run at ~38 watts each. At my age I'll be dead before I replace them.

OneHitDone said:

What these guys are ignoring is that at that 4 year mark when the fixture paid for itself it will be time to replace it and start the cycle over again. Led does not last forever...

Click to expand...

Maybe for crappy LED fixtures but not for good ones!

High quality LED can easily run for decades.

OneHitDone said:

What these guys are ignoring is that at that 4 year mark when the fixture paid for itself it will be time to replace it and start the cycle over again. Led does not last forever...

Click to expand...

I've seen talk about LEDs lasting 10ish years. So in that time I could get 2.5x my ROI which is awesome. Eventually I will switch to LED, I see the future in it. But having an extra 1k+ to invest in a light that literally won't do anything for me for over 4 years is not in my budget yet.

At at or under $1/w for a quality fixture not DYI, and it wouldn't even be a discussion anymore.

Thundercat said:

I've seen talk about LEDs lasting 10ish years. So in that time I could get 2.5x my ROI which is awesome. Eventually I will switch to LED, I see the future in it. But having an extra 1k+ to invest in a light that literally won't do anything for me for over 4 years is not in my budget yet.

At at or under $1/w for a quality fixture not DYI, and it wouldn't even be a discussion anymore.

Click to expand...

That's old school grower thinking...

But you aren't a commercial grow so your logic makes sense in your situation.

That said, people noticed the quality improvement when I switched to LED... from across the room. So there's that to consider as well.

You can build a qb132 based 4 board light for around $200 - $250 bucks, frame type depending.
I spent nearly that much on just one of the hps hoods, then another $150 - $200 on a solid ballast and $60 - $80 on a 600w bulb worth using.

Imo at this point the led vs hps debate is only about bruised egos, cuzz they can both grow very very well.

You all KNOW that, as soon as LED efficiency gets up in the 3.0+ efficiency range, it will be time for laser grow lights that will be mind-blowingly efficient....and then all preceding technology will begin to fade into obsoletion....You DO know that....right?

ttystikk said:

That's old school grower thinking...

But you aren't a commercial grow so your logic makes sense in your situation.

That said, people noticed the quality improvement when I switched to LED... from across the room. So there's that to consider as well.

Click to expand...

You are correct I'm not a commercial grower, and yes I am some what old school . Being commercial only changes any of this by small percentages, unless you get a big discount for buying a bunch of lights, its just as expensive to buy them as a commercial grower. Because commercial electrical costs are often higher you would likely get your ROI faster in a commercial setting though.

I don't really think my "oldschool thinking" is particularly that far off. I'm not arguing against LED. Just saying that chasing the newest tech is NOT efficient, and that older tech needs to keep coming down in price to make it easier for the market to embrace it.

Now what would drastically change the ROI is cost of electrical. I get that for some people(including commercial growers) they can recoup costs faster.

Bubblin said:

You can build a qb132 based 4 board light for around $200 - $250 bucks, frame type depending.
I spent nearly that much on just one of the hps hoods, then another $150 - $200 on a solid ballast and $60 - $80 on a 600w bulb worth using.

Imo at this point the led vs hps debate is only about bruised egos, cuzz they can both grow very very well.

Click to expand...

I don't see anyone debating LED vs HPS, I know I'm sure not. I am eagerly looking forward to switching to LED eventually, but I have ZERO interest in DYIing a light, more power to you if that's your thing, it is not mine. I have no ego to bruise .

Come on boys, get with the times - even your darling Growmau5 concedes that HPS is the majority and "Standard" still at this time.

@1:03:00

So what came first @ttystikk or @tstick

OneHitDone said:

So what came first @ttystikk or @tstick

Click to expand...

tittystikks

Thundercat said:

You are correct I'm not a commercial grower, and yes I am some what old school . Being commercial only changes any of this by small percentages, unless you get a big discount for buying a bunch of lights, its just as expensive to buy them as a commercial grower. Because commercial electrical costs are often higher you would likely get your ROI faster in a commercial setting though.

I don't really think my "oldschool thinking" is particularly that far off. I'm not arguing against LED. Just saying that chasing the newest tech is NOT efficient, and that older tech needs to keep coming down in price to make it easier for the market to embrace it.

Now what would drastically change the ROI is cost of electrical. I get that for some people(including commercial growers) they can recoup costs faster.



I don't see anyone debating LED vs HPS, I know I'm sure not. I am eagerly looking forward to switching to LED eventually, but I have ZERO interest in DYIing a light, more power to you if that's your thing, it is not mine. I have no ego to bruise .

Click to expand...

There IS a big difference between small home grows and commercial operations and that's the relative cost of HVAC. That becomes a large percentage.

My technology is primarily designed for large facilities and it will save as much or more energy usage by the AC system as LED does over streetlights, while also making the lighting itself even more efficient. Much like the water chilling it's based on, it's more efficient the bigger the load or facility is.

For a few dollars Growers Lights will assemble and test any HLG light!

As legalization moves forward and eventually becomes 100%, we will see GIANT industry taking over the mega-grow ops....likely a company like R.J. Reynolds. When this happens, marijuana will become just another thing for the masses to buy in packs. This type of giant operation will undoubtedly create their own custom lighting that won't have any application to a small-time grower.

But I really believe there will also be a market for grow equipment so that people who don't want to participate with giant corporation-produced products, can do their own thing, too. If I was a light manufacturer, then I would be gearing my products to suit small-time growers....the less than an ounce per month users....people who grow a few plants (if that) per year.....just sayin'

Thundercat said:

Tons of people would jump off HPS if they could get a faster ROI . I only spend $30 a month to run my 1k HPS and another $70 a year on a new bulb. Even if I cut my electrical usage in half, for the same amount of light and coverage it would take me over 4 years to get an ROI on a $1000+ light.

Click to expand...

we should all be so lucky to have 8cents a KWH! i had a guy call me me from houston once and told me his electric was four cents a kWH and being the bad salesman i am i said "you want LED why?"

tstick said:

This type of giant operation will undoubtedly create their own custom lighting that won't have any application to a small-time grower.

Click to expand...

No, THEY won't because they're just interested in growing. A farmer doesn't care about the technology if his tractor as long as it does the job he needs it to.

Besides, they won't need to. I've already developed it and they'll be happy to buy that tech from me.

CobKits said:

we should all be so lucky to have 8cents a KWH! i had a guy call me me from houston once and told me his electric was four cents a kWH and being the bad salesman i am i said "you want LED why?"

Click to expand...

Because LED grows better weed. It's not just a way to save money on power.

Bad salesman! Bong hits are for closers! Lol

CobKits said:

we should all be so lucky to have 8cents a KWH! i had a guy call me me from houston once and told me his electric was four cents a kWH and being the bad salesman i am i said "you want LED why?"

Click to expand...

Well I want LED for a much more even canopy coverage , I don't know about him.