Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 28.0%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 41 26.1%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 72 45.9%

  • Total voters
    157

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
At what point will our newly adjusted technological global society begin to fail at agriculture? Heat alone will begin to kill unprotected people in this decade. Unmitigated methane release is NOT mitigatable by any known method. Uncontrolled release from melting permafrost and deep sea methane deposits regardless of the longevity of the gas in the atmosphere will spiral.

At what point will society begin to collapse and how will people cope with heat when that collapse occurs and artificial cooling is no longer sustainable?
Sure, we can as a race survive fires, inundation and extreme weather events but at the core is still unsurvivable heat and the failure of crops.

Humans begin to die at a wet bulb temperature of 95 f. This can equate to a 50 humidity temperature of 109.
109 is no longer a rarity in many locations.

It is true that humans tend to acclimatize to heat in as little as six weeks but how far can this acclimatization extend? How can the modern countries have their population adapt when they spend a portion but not all of their time in air conditioned spaces?

It is true that cereal crops can be preserved by moving north and south but now, again, we are disrupting geopolitical situations.
Heat is half the story.

Imo the larger imminent threat is the change in patterns and amounts of seasonal rainfall.

We saw the Mississippi and the Danube all but dry up in two of the world’s breadbaskets.

Here in the Southwest, demand on the Colorado River has grown while the watershed yields half what it did.

These are only the precursors of likely desertification of much of the tropics and mid-latitudes where most people live.

I expect wars over water to be a major theme of the second half of this century.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Any green new grid needs to take prosumers into account, those, farmers, small businesses, home and property owners who can produce and store their own energy, reduce local demand and sell excess to the grid for more at night. When you consider the amount of government subsidies to fossil fuel companies, money to do this should not be an issue!


Running a grid on renewables is already being done Portugal, in terms of latitudes is the same north to south, as Massachusetts in the north to Virginia in the south in Nort America. The ran their grid for 6 days on renewables recently, what will it be like in 10 years, since we are just at the beginning and currently don't have much energy storage or a grid evolved to accommodate the coming changes.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Almost all those countries who are increasing their carbon emissions are in the tropics and subtropics, places where solar power and storage are cheapest and where solar recharged cars would work for almost everybody without recharging from the grid. Starting this year, I expect those charts to take a steep turn away from coal and oil usage. Many of these countries are poor and importing oil is expensive, so I would expect more renewables since solar is a cheaper form of power generation than building coal fired plants.

Maybe rich countries could get some form of carbon credit by helping poor tropical ones decarbonize and save a lot of money in fuel costs. We subsidize the oil and gas industry to the tune of 7 trillion each year and a trillion or two should convert a lot of poor tropical countries to renewables with storage. China is building coal power plants, but it is also leading in converting to renewables and EVs.

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injinji

Well-Known Member
Heat is half the story.

Imo the larger imminent threat is the change in patterns and amounts of seasonal rainfall.

We saw the Mississippi and the Danube all but dry up in two of the world’s breadbaskets.

Here in the Southwest, demand on the Colorado River has grown while the watershed yields half what it did.

These are only the precursors of likely desertification of much of the tropics and mid-latitudes where most people live.

I expect wars over water to be a major theme of the second half of this century.
Drought in Central America has caused the Panama Canal to cut back on the number of ships they allow through per day. (fresh water for the locks comes from a lake) Can you say supply chain issues?
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Climate Change: A Revised Prediction - Steven Chu

Nobelist, physicist, Stanford professor, Steven Chu talks about the updated story of climate change, the unheard story behind his Nobel Prize & time in public service, and how he thinks that meritocracy is at risk.

Professor Steven Chu is the William R. Kenan Jr. Professor at Stanford University, the 1997 Nobel Laureate in Physics for the "development of methods to cool and trap atoms with laser light," and the 12th US Secretary of Energy.

The host, Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian educator and entrepreneur. He is currently teaching at Stanford as a visiting scholar at the university’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center (APARC).
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Can the world rely on renewable energy? | Future Earth | BBC News

What are the challenges the world faces in the transition to renewable energy – and what are the possible solutions?

The BBC's Carl Nasman learns about the US' first 100% renewable-powered city; the world’s largest solar farm; and the research project literally getting energy from thin air.

This is episode three of Future Earth, a series exploring today’s most important developments in climate science and sustainability.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Oil pipeline leak offshore LA. Thank god it wasn't a wind or solar pipeline. Those leaks are rough.

From what I've been reading we reached a tipping point with solar generation and economics will get them in the end. I think over the next decade we are gonna see a massive roll out of solar, wind and batteries, several studies have said they can do the job or put a Helluva dent in emissions. Best of all it makes the most sense for most of the global population, the closer to the equator the better. Cheap batteries are about all that is in the way of renewables and individual homeowners contributing to the grid and storage.

A fraction of the subsidies spent on oil and gas could finance the transition, but in the end, it will be economics that do in oil and gas, once we start converting at scale globally, take advantage of mass production and developed supply chains.
 

OldMedUser

Well-Known Member
If We’ve Lost the Climate War, What’s Plan B?
Why a carbon tax won’t save us, and what’s next.

Canadian pundits and politicians are entertaining themselves over carbon taxes and heating oil, while environmentalists protest pipelines and missed emissions targets. They’re all wasting their breath — and our precious time.

The recently published “Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act — 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan” says, in its first sentence, “The federal government is not on track to meet the 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent below the 2005 level by 2030.”

Even if we were on track, it wouldn’t matter. Global emissions will keep going up because no one else is on track to reduce their emissions either.

According to the Global Carbon Atlas, the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 were 36,853 megatonnes. China was far and away the top emitter, with 11,336 megatonnes, more than twice the 5,032 megatonnes emitted by the United States. India was third in emissions, with 2,674 megatonnes, followed by Russia with 1,712 megatonnes.

Canada is well back in the pack at 11th place, with just 537 megatonnes of CO2 emitted.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
PV beats trees by 50 times, both are needed, but not many trees grow in the desert and not that much land is required for PV, if urban rooftops are used too along with other renewables.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I'm not so much a fan of solar as seeing the writing on the wall in terms of economics, in this case it is a flashing billboard, tandem and cheap perovskite PV is yet to have an impact on prices, and it will over the next 5 years to a decade. Storage is the issue and battery prices are plunging too, already it is cheaper to build a grid battery bank to meet peak demands than a gas turbine peaking plant. People in the tropics, subtropics and temperate climates will benefit the most and need the least solar and battery capacity. However, people in Canada and Europe can benefit too by reducing or eliminating energy costs for most of the year and when your total energy bill is electric, making at least some of your own for most of the year will make sense as prices continue to drop.


Solar module prices may reach $0.10/W by end 2024
Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance, speaks to pv magazine about the current steep trajectory of solar module prices. He estimates that PV panels prices will end up dropping by 40% this year and predicts the closure of old technology and sub-scale solar manufacturing facilities, both in China and globally.


New cycle

Describing this new industry cycle for the solar PV technology, Buckley said it is different from previous ones, as solar is now the cheapest electricity, which is disrupting incumbent industry competitors.” This means finance will rapidly flee from investing in any new thermal power capacity in the electricity sector globally,” he said.

The analyst is convinced that finance won’t just flee for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues or moralistic or climate reasons, but it will flee nonetheless because it will not provide new financing to inevitably stranded assets, particularly with the concurrent rapid scaling up of battery energy storage and EVs.

“This time is different because of the convergence of power-industry-transport markets,” Buckley said.

Tim Buckley is the main author of “Solar pivot: A massive global solar boom is disrupting energy markets and speeding the transition,” which was published by CEF in June. There, Buckley and his colleagues said they estimated solar electricity costs to drop 10% annually for the rest of this decade, halving by 2030. The report also provides detailed information on the operating and planned capacity of the global PV supply chain.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
We will see solar powered or supplemented cars in the tropics and subtropics first. Two things can change the picture, cheap efficient perovskite solar cells that are much easier to integrate into car body sections and produce more power, and more power dense batteries meaning lighter cars. Instead of storing 1 kWh of power in 5 kg or more of weight, we could store it in 1 or 2 kilograms. Most would have to plug such a vehicle in, the further north or south from the equator the more you would need to plug it in. Cheap electric rates and better batteries in the future might make it not worth the while for solar on the vehicles, but I do think it will be more feasible with new solar and battery technology. They would be another class of vehicle than the ones we currently use, and would get at least 10km/kWh, mostly due to reduced battery weight.


Solar cars: Why aren’t they everywhere?

Electric vehicles are here to stay, but charging times and range are still major turnoffs for many buyers. So why not just slap solar panels on the car and drive indefinitely with zero fuel cost? A handful of solar cars are available for pre-order now, but how realistic is the tech? Can solar power provide enough power to extend range and cut charging time?
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
PV beats trees by 50 times, both are needed, but not many trees grow in the desert and not that much land is required for PV, if urban rooftops are used too along with other renewables.

PV = nRT
 
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