Climate in the 21st Century

Will Humankind see the 22nd Century?

  • Not a fucking chance

    Votes: 44 28.0%
  • Maybe. if we get our act together

    Votes: 41 26.1%
  • Yes, we will survive

    Votes: 72 45.9%

  • Total voters
    157

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Free solar energy, if you do not count the cost of the solar cells. On 100 kW, one furnace I used to work on ran on 200 kW, the work area could fit a Miata on its side. The floor would vibrate as the power was pulsed.
I’m curious about that furnace’s purpose and operating temperature.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
I’m curious about that furnace’s purpose and operating temperature.
Heat treating aluminum, has a range from 700 - 1200F. The upper temperature was not used for aluminum but to temper steel parts although we never used it at that temperature, normally around 920 - 1000 F. We had other atmosphere furnaces that did steel parts up to 2200 F, vacuum furnaces that did up to 2200F. Branded myself on a few ovens that go up to 500 F that were used for tempering aluminum. Some ovens used for baking composite parts, a few autoclaves to do the same.
 
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cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Heat treating aluminum, has a range from 700 - 1200F. The upper temperature was not used for aluminum but to temper steel parts although we never used it at that temperature, normally around 920 - 1000 F. We had other atmosphere furnaces that did steel parts up to 2200 F, vacuum furnaces that did up to 2200F. Branded myself on a few ovens that go up to 500 F that were used for tempering aluminum. Some ovens used for baking composite parts, a few autoclaves to do the same.
Electric, or fueled?
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Solar panels last for 25 to 30 years as will batteries, so these things will accumulate. People will continue to invest in and use fossil fuels until demand for them drops, and when demand drops, so too will the price until it is not profitable because of price, tax and regulation. I expect demand for gasoline to be the first victim of this process with people converting to EVs and North America is lagging behind most other places on that. Utilities should be the next in line for conversion with wind, solar and grid scale storage. I do think a distributed generation and storage plan will work here to supplement the regular grid for solar generation and storage by home and business owners. The model of fast charging has physical problems especially with large vehicles and people should be charging from home for practical and economic reasons. There will be fast chargers, but a lot of people either won't use them or will use them on road trips.

We are going to have to make some major adjustments to our lifestyles and purchasing decisions, how an EV will be charged will be a factor in them. I won't be around for much of it or the consequences of delay myself, but I expect to see big changes in the next decade nonetheless because we are ramping up for it now.

As for the trillion in fossil fuel investments

 

printer

Well-Known Member
Solar panels last for 25 to 30 years as will batteries, so these things will accumulate. People will continue to invest in and use fossil fuels until demand for them drops, and when demand drops, so too will the price until it is not profitable because of price, tax and regulation. I expect demand for gasoline to be the first victim of this process with people converting to EVs and North America is lagging behind most other places on that. Utilities should be the next in line for conversion with wind, solar and grid scale storage. I do think a distributed generation and storage plan will work here to supplement the regular grid for solar generation and storage by home and business owners. The model of fast charging has physical problems especially with large vehicles and people should be charging from home for practical and economic reasons. There will be fast chargers, but a lot of people either won't use them or will use them on road trips.

We are going to have to make some major adjustments to our lifestyles and purchasing decisions, how an EV will be charged will be a factor in them. I won't be around for much of it or the consequences of delay myself, but I expect to see big changes in the next decade nonetheless because we are ramping up for it now.

As for the trillion in fossil fuel investments

Where do you get that solar panels and batteries will last 25-30 years?
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Where do you get that solar panels and batteries will last 25-30 years?
From the posts of articles and videos I made in this thread, silicon based solar panels have a lifetime of about 25 years currently and several grid storage batteries are under development that will last that long. Sodium based batteries are expected to last thousands of cycles too and they should dominate home solar storage, there are also posts related to that in this thread. There are other chemistries that promise long life for EV and home power storage, and I believe several different types will be used depending on the circumstances, redux flow batteries appear to be what will be used for largescale grid storage and there are several options in that category too.

Have a look through the thread, most of the posts about batteries are about things entering production or soon will be. The references are too many to list and have been in this thread already. I try to keep things about climate change solutions orientated.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Where do you get that solar panels and batteries will last 25-30 years?
25 to 30 years

When you're doing your research for this sustainable energy source, it's important to factor in how long solar panels typically last. The industry standard for most solar panels' lifespans is 25 to 30 years. Most reputable manufacturers offer production warranties for 25 years or more.Apr 12, 2023


How Long Do Solar Panels Last? - Forbes
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
Where do you get that solar panels and batteries will last 25-30 years?

In its annual Module Score Card study, PVEL analyzed 36 operational solar projects in India, and found significant impacts from heat degradation. The average annual degradation of the projects landed at 1.47%, but arrays located in colder, mountainous regions degraded at nearly half that rate, at 0.7%.

Lotta people don’t figure in heat-cycle degradation. Out here in the Mojave you can lose 20+% in fifteen years. Add to that that panels typically lose 0.35% output for every degree C above reference 25 (panel temp, not air) and that on a decent summer day a panel
can hit 70°C easy, it only gets worse.
 

printer

Well-Known Member

In its annual Module Score Card study, PVEL analyzed 36 operational solar projects in India, and found significant impacts from heat degradation. The average annual degradation of the projects landed at 1.47%, but arrays located in colder, mountainous regions degraded at nearly half that rate, at 0.7%.

Lotta people don’t figure in heat-cycle degradation. Out here in the Mojave you can lose 20+% in fifteen years. Add to that that panels typically lose 0.35% output for every degree C above reference 25 (panel temp, not air) and that on a decent summer day a panel
can hit 70°C easy, it only gets worse.
And then there is the batteries. Li batteries degrade even if you do not use them.

25 to 30 years

When you're doing your research for this sustainable energy source, it's important to factor in how long solar panels typically last. The industry standard for most solar panels' lifespans is 25 to 30 years. Most reputable manufacturers offer production warranties for 25 years or more.Apr 12, 2023

How Long Do Solar Panels Last? - Forbes
You have some magic batteries?
 

printer

Well-Known Member
25 to 30 years

When you're doing your research for this sustainable energy source, it's important to factor in how long solar panels typically last. The industry standard for most solar panels' lifespans is 25 to 30 years. Most reputable manufacturers offer production warranties for 25 years or more.Apr 12, 2023

How Long Do Solar Panels Last? - Forbes
(bracing for barrage of wildly speculative tech vids)
Never a shortage.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
And then there is the batteries. Li batteries degrade even if you do not use them.



You have some magic batteries?
Batteries are on the way and several different chemistries are being offered. It is not what is avail right now that will make the biggest difference, but what will be over the next 5 or ten years and current lithium chemistries won't be around forever, they will be supplanted by others. I post articles with links to the papers they are based on too and videos for general consumption that are not really that speculative as I try to stick to things we might see in 5 or 10 years. This thread is more about information to base policy on, the science is often linked to for those who can digest it.

Right now, a limited number of lithium chemistries are in wide use, and these have issues with safety and longevity, but practical advances and improvement to even these are made regularly. I hope you don't consider MIT to be too speculative?

 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
The model of fast charging has physical problems especially with large vehicles and people should be charging from home for practical and economic reasons. There will be fast chargers, but a lot of people either won't use them or will use them on road trips.
From the land with most fast chargers per square mile, almost 40% of EV owners use them (over 22kW AC up to 350kW DC) “regularly”, 6% almost always. It’s not suitable for some smaller models but CCS is supported by nearly 20 brands ranging from small to large vehicles. One of the main problems holding back EU is the lack of fast chargers. Sure, definitely applies to road trips too, but at least as common is fast charging at MacDonalds (nearly every location here has them). What does play a role in those numbers is high energy rates here atm (so charging at home isn't that much cheaper) and the high gas rates, to which most EV drivers still compare the cost. The little extra saving doesn't weigh up to charging to 80% in 30 min or less. Completely removes charge and range phobia, always a fast charger near and barely takes more time than filling up with gasoline at a busy gas station. Fast charging is actually the more practical way, not everyone owns a car port or garage, in fact, most here don't even own there own parking space so it requires a cable to the public street. Especially tricky when you're not on bottom floor.

How long batteries last isn't the key issue, the cost per month/year is. But the lack of affordable battery now and lack of sunlight in dark hours is no excuse to not use solar now. What helps is a government that forces energy companies to pay for any excess people put onto the grid, although that deal is slowly being phased out with the expectation of more affordable batteries becoming available in a few years.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
From the land with most fast chargers per square mile, almost 40% of EV owners use them (over 22kW AC up to 350kW DC) “regularly”, 6% almost always. It’s not suitable for some smaller models but CCS is supported by nearly 20 brands ranging from small to large vehicles. One of the main problems holding back EU is the lack of fast chargers. Sure, definitely applies to road trips too, but at least as common is fast charging at MacDonalds (nearly every location here has them). What does play a role in those numbers is high energy rates here atm (so charging at home isn't that much cheaper) and the high gas rates, to which most EV drivers still compare the cost. The little extra saving doesn't weigh up to charging to 80% in 30 min or less. Completely removes charge and range phobia, always a fast charger near and barely takes more time than filling up with gasoline at a busy gas station. Fast charging is actually the more practical way, not everyone owns a car port or garage, in fact, most here don't even own there own parking space so it requires a cable to the public street. Especially tricky when you're not on bottom floor.

How long batteries last isn't the key issue, the cost per month/year is. But the lack of affordable battery now and lack of sunlight in dark hours is no excuse to not use solar now. What helps is a government that forces energy companies to pay for any excess people put onto the grid, although that deal is slowly being phased out with the expectation of more affordable batteries becoming available in a few years.
I was looking at the news of the new battery I posted in the thread above that charges very fast and the physical limitations of how much energy you can safely transfer to the battery in 3 minutes or even 10 minutes. With a smaller EV there are not too many issues with either fast or home charging, but with the North American kilowatt guzzlers like SUVs and half tons it will be an issue, dumping that much energy into a massive battery in a vehicle that gets three or four km per kWh. In North America cities are surrounded by suburbs of single-family dwellings with many homeowners and industrial parks.

In Europe there are not so many single-family houses and cars tend to be smaller, here many people require 3 tons of steel to drive to the corner store for a jug of milk or go to work, for many size matters, the bigger the better. GM just stopped production of the small energy efficient bolt EV in favor of the more profitable huge electric half tons.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
View attachment 5293954

1.5 megawatt hour big ass battery manufactured in NL, lasts up to 30 years, or so they claim. Used among others at construction sites.
I was referring to this battery technology that can charge to full in 3 minutes, comparable to gassing up the traditional way. The problem is getting all that power into the battery in a short period of time and the problem is compounded the larger and heavier the EV is. I imagine most people don't want to stop for a half hour charge in the morning or after work and on the road trips, unless they are having a meal while charging.

The charging limitation with this battery is the charging system.

 
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