War
- Thread starter captainmorgan
- Start date
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
This is why FPV and other small fighting drones are important, there are no production problems, and they can substitute for artillery in some cases, and they do destroy a lot of Russian equipment and positions for very low cost. One can see why they want to field 10K of FPV drones a month, since regular munitions are slow to produce and expensive.
The Economics of Artillery Shells in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Unguided artillery shells are arguably one of the most important weapons on the battlefield. But how many artillery shells Ukraine needs, how many shells are produced around the world, and why the equation is not just about the number of shells that each side has, is #NotWhatYouThink #NWYT
The Economics of Artillery Shells in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Unguided artillery shells are arguably one of the most important weapons on the battlefield. But how many artillery shells Ukraine needs, how many shells are produced around the world, and why the equation is not just about the number of shells that each side has, is #NotWhatYouThink #NWYT
printer
Well-Known Member
The light blue in the middle, the green above it and a smattering of the dark blue being the T-80BV.
Another missing post from X on why the increase, They were mothballed because they sucked fuel and were expensive to run. Because of it they are still in pretty good shape compared to the 72 and older variants.
Another missing post from X on why the increase, They were mothballed because they sucked fuel and were expensive to run. Because of it they are still in pretty good shape compared to the 72 and older variants.
printer
Well-Known Member
Seems Twitter no longer is showing this post, a MRAP hitting five mines and an artillery strike with the soldiers getting out after.
Last edited:
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Nothing burns through a treasury like war, especially when their foreign reserves have been frozen, and they are under sanctions with their primary source of revenue cut off. How a country finances a war is important, for a long time the Brits raised money through the bank of England and during WW2 US citizens largely paid for things with war bonds, stretching out the pain over years and fueling the post war boom, when consumer goods were being made and houses were being built. A war can leave you weaker or stronger depending on how it's paid for and if the Ukrainians get seized Russian money and favorable trade agreements from the EU they could be in good shape post war. Russia on the other hand will be a financial disaster for a decade post war with a broken economy and military.
By the time they are ready to sell their oil and gas again the world might not be using much, and the capital investment required to get it up and running again won't be there. In 10 years, we should begin to see the impact of EVs, renewables, energy storage and heat pumps on the oil and gas markets. Regulations will reduce the consumption of NG to industrial and power generation only. They looked to be screwed for good to me and when all the left-over Soviet era shit is gone, they will be largely toothless. Except for nukes and that would be suicide for them, but maybe not for everybody else. They have many enemies and will need to hit multiple countries, including those who don't have nukes like Poland, Germany and Ukraine, along with America the UK and France, so their supply of unreliable poorly maintained nukes will be stretched thin.
By the time they are ready to sell their oil and gas again the world might not be using much, and the capital investment required to get it up and running again won't be there. In 10 years, we should begin to see the impact of EVs, renewables, energy storage and heat pumps on the oil and gas markets. Regulations will reduce the consumption of NG to industrial and power generation only. They looked to be screwed for good to me and when all the left-over Soviet era shit is gone, they will be largely toothless. Except for nukes and that would be suicide for them, but maybe not for everybody else. They have many enemies and will need to hit multiple countries, including those who don't have nukes like Poland, Germany and Ukraine, along with America the UK and France, so their supply of unreliable poorly maintained nukes will be stretched thin.
Last edited:
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Let's talk about Russia, a talking point, and the reality....
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I posted a video about the bigger copter drone that drops these monsters and there is no shortage of ammo supply. Another example of innovation making up for a shortage of artillery shells. With enough such long-range drones they could return many of these mines to the Russians and save a lot of munitions that are in short supply. They should be able to quickly buy or build copters capable of this quickly, much more quickly than artillery shells can be produced apparently. If Uncle Sam and the EU can't supply enough shells, perhaps they can help with these? How many mines could 1000 such drones drop a day, how many sorties could they fly, there are few production bottlenecks, just cash is required and there are those hundreds of thousands of mines laying around and being dug up all the time and should be returned to the Russian fighting positions. If one of these landed on a tank it would probably destroy it.
Drone Drops Anti Tank Mine On Russian Trenches
Drone Drops Anti Tank Mine On Russian Trenches
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
That is a possible scenario LED,hope it comes to fruition,so many dark variables exist though I find it hard to wear rose colored glasses. Putin can play a general mobilization card and put 3 times the bodies in the field that Ukraine can,it'd be met w/some dissention but he can play the Russian sovereignty under threat and Western conspiracy card to the max w/his propoganda machine. A bromance w/Kim Jung Un is in the works in which a quid pro quo of Russia getting massive amounts of artillery and rockets from a country preparing for war for 70 yrs. will eagerly fill in exchange for ICBM,sattelite,and submarine tech assistance.Polls in my country are starting to get frightening concerning the 2024 elections and the 180 in Foreign policy a R victory would entail. Ukraine deserves immense kudos for their spirited defense of their country against steep odds,that said I'm skeptical that they can split Russian forces in half any time soon,to me arming the Ukranian's for a counter off, that didn't have supporting air assetts was a fools game and asked them to do something NATO would never do; advance against heavily defended layers of dug in troops without any semblance of air support.That said all I hold out hope for is that evil never prevails in the long run.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Joe just needs to finish off Vlad and republican racism will take care of China for him or any republican who wins, they would continue Biden's policy on China and Russia will be fucked completely by inauguration day. We all know Vietnam can fight well, so does China, since they had their war with them too!
Last edited:
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I think you are seeing Joe's strategic plan play out of sucking Vlad in, making him think he could win and commit everything, then after he was worn down, pour in the arms as they did, and they will pour in more too. The election is over a year away and the change of administrations longer, by then Russia should be beaten out of Ukraine and be largely toothless. If required, the EU can finish the war or keep it going low level, many countries in the EU have larger economies than Russia. They made Vlad use up his vast hoard of inherited Soviet era equipment and munitions and when it is gone, most of the equipment, particularly the modern stuff can't be replaced. In 6 months, they will have a lot of F16s from Europe and an airforce, when they have reduced the Russian AA defenses enough and drive the Russian air force back a thousand kilometers with drone attacks on their bases, it will be safe for them to have those F-16s. Meanwhile drones fill the roles or try to, of conventional airpower in combined arms offensive operations. Once the Ukrainians have F16s it will be all over, if it isn't before then.
Some wars are kind to presidents and this one will be kind to Joe with victory coming before the election I figure. Aid from Ukraine has split the GOP right down the middle, unlike most other issues, even Lindsay Graham is against Trump on cutting Ukrainian support. Joe isn't gonna let Ukraine lose and is looking to eliminate the Russian threat for a very long time by destroying their military and economy in an attritional war with a highly motivated trained and well-equipped enemy, Ukraine. The smart people in Ukraine know this is their best long-term security, it will eliminate the threat to them too, besides they can blame the long war on the allies and that's ok, it gives Zelenskyy lots of cover.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Driving a big army from one of the poorest countries in Europe in less than 3 years is not bad considering where they started. Giving the Ukrainians the weapons and strict instructions could end the war quickly and Joe is not afraid of Vlad either. They could have cut the rail bridges 100 miles inside Russia on the half dozen routes into Ukraine. The Russians cannot operate in any strength more than 50km from their railheads because of logistical issues, a shortage of trucks. If that was done however Vlad would have pulled back early before he had a chance to clean out his cupboard and have to conscript men from the cities... The Ukrainians might yet take out those rail bridges inside Russia and are rapidly developing the means to do so, many are in the middle of nowhere with no point AA defense. Rail lines can be rapidly repaired and the Russians have dedicated units for this task, but rail bridges are another matter and take months to fix, longer in Russia and several can be targeted along each route.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
I don’t believe there is a strategic plan in play here. In fact, I think this is your peculiar propensity for political pareidolia leading you to see such.
More likely, the Biden administration is sending what it can break loose from the opponents of expensive aid to Ukraine. What you see as planned I see as chance.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
What I see is the US could end the war in short order by helping Ukraine take out rail bridges. The "plan" evolved from the invasion to Ukraine looking like it could beat the Russians and last year a decision point was reached, but not widely announced, Joe told Austin and Blinken to STFU about it. The arms shortage is because of how they choose to fight the war of attrition, America and NATO depend more on airpower than artillery so don't stockpile a lot, that's where drones come in handy with a low cost per kill, a high hit to miss ratio and few production bottlenecks.
U.S. Defense Sec. Austin: We Want to See Russia Weakened
10,729 views Apr 25, 2022
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Washington wants to see Russian forces "weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine." He made the comments while speaking to reporters in Kyiv alongside Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during the highest-level U.S. visit to Ukraine since Russia invaded two months ago.
Now that the trap has been sprung, they are being more open about it.
Ukrainian war strategy is ‘about depleting Russian forces’
75,520 views Sep 7, 2023 #Blinken #Ukraine #Russia
Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Ukraine to announce another $2 billion in aid from the Biden Administration. Richard Engel and Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman join Ryan Nobles to discuss the small counteroffensive gains on the battlefield and the decreasing level of interest among GOP congressional members. “This was not necessarily going to be a quick lightning strike to regain territory quickly. It was about depleting Russian forces,” Vindman says. “The Ukrainians continue to gain ground, it is likely that momentum is going to pick up and the Ukrainians are gonna hit some of their markers with territory.”
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
Hmmm. That does cause me to rethink. While it’s possible that SecDef is making lemonade out of lemons, and while I don’t know when attrition became a component of US policy, you make a good case.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
It was the only time it was publicly discussed by them or anybody else until recently, they went radio silent after that and I can imagine what Joe said to them! I caught it and posted it to this thread when it happened, so that and the Russians utter dependency on the rails made me think that the Pentagon thought about this shit long ago and NATO would have cut Russian rail logistics at its vulnerable points as one of their first moves. Probably by using air launched cruise missiles, NATO would have taken down hundreds of Russian Rail bridges in western Russia crippling them immediately, next the power grid.
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
I think that the cautionary side of that is that Putin is as nervous as a dude with a gram of meth in his system peering through a crack in the blinds.
A visibly aggressive assist by Nato to do the things you describe might well be perceived as an existential threat to those in power, which is the same as Russia in their eyes.
So it is vital that Nato do all it can while not risking the tripping of that “existential threat” switch. There is no way that crossing the nuclear threshold would be in anyone’s interest. I suspect that is a principal reason Nato warbirds are not patrolling Ukrainian airspace at this time.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
It is a factor, but one Joe and NATO are using to their advantage now that Vlad is fully committed to a war of attrition that he dares not lose. He cannot slow the pace of it either, Ukraine determines the pace of events now and they are chewing through his troops and equipment at a horrific rate as they strive for the coast of the Sea of Azov. If they succeed and blow the Kerch bridge the Russians are fucked to the west of them and in Crimea. All the equipment will have to be left there or destroyed when or if they get the troops off. Think about how catastrophic a defeat that would be for the Russians with Crimea cut off and F16s starting to glide bomb it this winter or spring with the Russians bottle up inside Crimea would be useless to the war effort while the Ukrainian lines are shortened considerably, all pointing east with a small force at the throat of Crimea covering the exits. A breakthrough in the south could lead to panic and collapse for the Russian forces there.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
The Ukrainians are now liking the idea of an attritional war too, as long as they can destroy them while driving them from their land. Once they are destroyed, they will be incapable of being a threat to them or anybody else for a very long time and in that time, Ukraine will prosper and grow stronger while Russia grows weaker. Some in Ukraine look at this as the punishment phase for their many crimes, in war the only justice is that which you make, and they want to make a lot of it before they are done with the Russians. Once burned on the white-hot stove they will be reluctant to lean their burned off stumps on it again!