doublejj
Well-Known Member
JUST IN — Tucker Carlson is reportedly in discussions to interview Vladimir Putin, as reported by RT.
War
- Thread starter captainmorgan
- Start date
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Here is the GOPs Ukrainian problem in stats, Trump sucks Putin's ass and so do the magats, but their position is equally unpopular among the majority of both democrats and republicans. See why Mitch and even Lindsay differs from Trump and the magats on Ukraine?
doublejj
Well-Known Member
It was only a matter of time before Russian state TV blamed the UK for the death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
To my most recent post about support for Ukraine. Once you perceive someone as an enemy, it is hard to change that attitude unless they do a lot to prove otherwise, works for Russia too. Many older voters grew up in the cold war and have pretty fixed ideas about Russia, ideas recently confirmed and reinforced by atrocities, and they lean republican. It is an issue that divides the republicans like no other and Biden pushing for extra funding for Ukraine fucks them over!
Even if they don't really need it!
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
That's why ya hope Trump wins the GOP nomination to keep these assholes from winning it or having time to prepare with Trump out of the way. If he wins the GOP nomination and ends up in prison, he won't resign but will apply in the states at the last moment denying anybody else a shot, if he can. He will then be disqualified on the eve of the election. With what Trump is facing the prospect of him winning the primaries should be remote, but he has an enormous lead that must be whittled down and a base impervious to facts and reason. If the republican establishment can't use the 14th to keep him out of the GOP primaries, they will use it to make sure Trump loses the nomination by the convention. His trial date is the day before super Tuesday in 24 and shit should be coming out in the following weeks, Beau mentioned the schedule for everything in his recent video about it and it looks sewed up tight for a spring verdict.
I fear another republican contender could beat Joe and all are POS and unfit for office, some are outright traitors, and none have any character worth a shit. If they pick one with Donald locked away and muzzled, then the party might fall in line behind them, with Trump winning the nomination it seems a sure bet, considering the 14th and his legal issues. The whole idea is absurd that this guy can still be around after not winning an election since 2016 and being a consistent loser, that the 14th amendment has to be applied to.
I fear another republican contender could beat Joe and all are POS and unfit for office, some are outright traitors, and none have any character worth a shit. If they pick one with Donald locked away and muzzled, then the party might fall in line behind them, with Trump winning the nomination it seems a sure bet, considering the 14th and his legal issues. The whole idea is absurd that this guy can still be around after not winning an election since 2016 and being a consistent loser, that the 14th amendment has to be applied to.
Sativied
Well-Known Member
Yeah but we covered that early on in this thread too, Russians are masochistic. When someone in the west says Russians are doing bad it just means something different than it does to the Russians themselves. Like setting the thermostat a few degrees higher in hell. I want to see major cracks. Fact is it hasn’t gone quickly enough and no major blows have been dealt that triggered enough to be fed up with the situation. Instead the slow decline allowed them to get accustomed to it. Easier than spoiled people in the west deal with the inflation from the pandemic and the energy crisis. And just look at Erdogan and how he affected the economy, turkish lira, and still got reelected. Should be a lesson for the future, don’t slowly introduce sanctions, hit them hard and cause an abrupt change.
So many percentages in this article, so much effort…
Yes, the sanctions against Russia are working
HR/VP Blog - Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has imposed 11 rounds of ever-tighter sanctions against Russia. Some people claim these sanctions have not worked. This is simply not true. Within a year, they have already limited Moscow’s options considerably causing financial...
“And the outlook for 2023 remains bleak. According to the latest OECD report, Russia’s GDP is foreseen to shrink by up to 2.5%.”
What they don’t mentioned is that -2.5% is a worst case scenario prediction and it’s expected the Russian economy might grow similar to the EU zone or at contract with a similar negligible amount. Nor do they include positive predictions for the years to follow. The fact they mislead using the lowest end of the prediction should tell you something. Just as the media referring to the ruble as plummeting. If there were major cracks to point out there’d be no need for such disingenuous cherry picking.
Russia overtakes Germany to become fifth biggest economy in the world in GDP on a PPP basis
The late US Senator John McCain once called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” and the fact that Russia’s nominal GDP is about ...
intellinews.com
It’s partly a matter of perspective but dictating perspective is standard mo for Russia.
Why do we not sanction tf out of China? Plenty of good reasons, legally, morally. Yet we don‘t because we supposedly can’t do with China’s manufacturers and cheap disposable clothing. The excuse the US and EU uses. We can’t manufacture all the ‘stuff’ we want ourselves so we‘ll just have to tolerate millions in camps, slavery, and China not taking a strong stance against Russia. That’s what Ukraine is dealing with. Allies who care too much about themselves and keeping their hands clean, and enemies who have no fucks to give.
printer
Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Sanctions should disproportionally affect the Russians because they imported almost all their modern technology and infrastructure from the west, bought with oil money. Their own manufacturing economy withered away under the weight of corruption, and they are a bit like some oil rich middle east kingdom. When shit breaks down like their auto fleet parts will be not just hard to get, but expensive and they need imported parts for everything from elevators to railroads, they can't even make their own roller bearings for train wagons, and they wear out too.Yeah but we covered that early on in this thread too, Russians are masochistic. When someone in the west says Russians are doing bad it just means something different than it does to the Russians themselves. Like setting the thermostat a few degrees higher in hell. I want to see major cracks. Fact is it hasn’t gone quickly enough and no major blows have been dealt that triggered enough to be fed up with the situation. Instead the slow decline allowed them to get accustomed to it. Easier than spoiled people in the west deal with the inflation from the pandemic and the energy crisis. And just look at Erdogan and how he affected the economy, turkish lira, and still got reelected. Should be a lesson for the future, don’t slowly introduce sanctions, hit them hard and cause an abrupt change.
So many percentages in this article, so much effort…
Yes, the sanctions against Russia are working
HR/VP Blog - Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has imposed 11 rounds of ever-tighter sanctions against Russia. Some people claim these sanctions have not worked. This is simply not true. Within a year, they have already limited Moscow’s options considerably causing financial...www.eeas.europa.eu
“And the outlook for 2023 remains bleak. According to the latest OECD report, Russia’s GDP is foreseen to shrink by up to 2.5%.”
What they don’t mentioned is that -2.5% is a worst case scenario prediction and it’s expected the Russian economy might grow similar to the EU zone or at contract with a similar negligible amount. Nor do they include positive predictions for the years to follow. The fact they mislead using the lowest end of the prediction should tell you something. Just as the media referring to the ruble as plummeting. If there were major cracks to point out there’d be no need for such disingenuous cherry picking.
Russia overtakes Germany to become fifth biggest economy in the world in GDP on a PPP basis
The late US Senator John McCain once called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” and the fact that Russia’s nominal GDP is about ...
It’s partly a matter of perspective but dictating perspective is standard mo for Russia.
Why do we not sanction tf out of China? Plenty of good reasons, legally, morally. Yet we don‘t because we supposedly can’t do with China’s manufacturers and cheap disposable clothing. The excuse the US and EU uses. We can’t manufacture all the ‘stuff’ we want ourselves so we‘ll just have to tolerate millions in camps, slavery, and China not taking a strong stance against Russia. That’s what Ukraine is dealing with. Allies who care too much about themselves and keeping their hands clean, and enemies who have no fucks to give.
Perspective is one thing but everything around those in the cities should start falling apart, if we are gonna have cold war with these fuckers then go all in on trade. China hasn't crossed the line yet and we are pulling out and moving Asian operations to their Asian tiger neighbors who will also be our allies as China is ringed in. Normally such geopolitical power games are distasteful, but I figure there is a realignment under way in the world, with the liberal democracies clashing with authoritarian governments, we can't afford such assholes running countries anymore. It won't be left vs right, but liberal democracy vs authoritarianism and fascism. Once you have liberal democracy and can control corruption, then the left right thing and wealth imbalance will take care of itself.
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DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Russia is losing and perhaps on the ropes when their proxies and useful idiots start pleading for peace. They are attacking Ukraine in the north, desperately trying to distract from what is happening down south. The Ukrainians are learning as they go and getting more efficient at penetrating the Russian defenses.
Sativied
Well-Known Member
'Dying by the dozens every day' - Ukraine losses climb
Ukraine will not disclose its death count, but the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville witnesses the mounting toll.
www.bbc.com
I don’t believe we don’t have the means to stop this. What remains then is that it’s a choice, between ending the war and how much we’re willing to risk/sacrifice. History is not going to look kindly on us. But we’ll send F16s… ~8 months too late...
The fictional line the west has placed conveniently in a position it suits them economically rather than the Uyghurs and the Ukrainians physically. My whole point is we’re letting this happen, and in that context China is by far the worst offender. Just like the US they have a responsibility to use their power, anything else means they are complicit. Yep, it’s like that. One planet, can’t have large powerful nations contributing to the demise of the planet and continue to give them that power as that means indirectly still being complicit. Good swimmers who let someone drown should be charged with murder.
That completely ignores the point I made while I had such a good analogy
. It leads mostly to first world problems from the American consumer in the capitalist west perspective. They’re self-sustainable in food, energy and vodka. Голь на выдумку хитра - Russian proverb: poor people are crafty. They’ll go Cuban on their cars while the west complains about the cost or duration of charging an EV.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
Europe is still gonna need gas for industry at least and for back up grid power, beats coal. Ukraine has lots of gas and just found more. You don't look for it if you aren't planning on selling it and conditions for doing that have been looking favorable for a while now. If Ukraine ends up selling gas, petroleum and other resources to the EU, it will be a long time before they even consider Russia. Ukraine is right on the border of the EU really close and tapping into the existing pipeline infrastructure should be easy. The demand for NG will dwindle over the next decade, particularly for domestic use, so there should be plenty in Ukraine to meet the needs of the EU and others. Europe would have the added benefit of the money they spend on Ukrainian energy will also contribute to their defense by making Ukraine strong, win, win.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
America can no more help the Uyghurs than the UK could help the poles squeezed between Hitler and Stalin. Trade is good and raises everybody's standard of living and quality of life, it is the first thing attacked in war for a reason. The average Russian lives like shit and makes a fraction of what people make in the west, but most of the population is urban and a million of their brightest left the country over the war or Putin. They are also more connected with smartphones and telegram, aside from the state propaganda that few really believe, none the less they are patriots and imperialists too for the most part.'Dying by the dozens every day' - Ukraine losses climb
Ukraine will not disclose its death count, but the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville witnesses the mounting toll.
I don’t believe we don’t have the means to stop this. What remains then is that it’s a choice, between ending the war and how much we’re willing to risk/sacrifice. History is not going to look kindly on us. But we’ll send F16s… ~8 months too late...
The fictional line the west has placed conveniently in a position it suits them economically rather than the Uyghurs and the Ukrainians physically. My whole point is we’re letting this happen, and in that context China is by far the worst offender. Just like the US they have a responsibility to use their power, anything else means they are complicit. Yep, it’s like that. One planet, can’t have large powerful nations contributing to the demise of the planet and continue to give them that power as that means indirectly still being complicit. Good swimmers who let someone drown should be charged with murder.
That completely ignores the point I made while I had such a good analogy
Голь на выдумку хитра - Russian proverb: poor people are crafty. They’ll go Cuban on their cars while the west complains about the cost or duration of charging an EV.
For a long time, China was a substitute for slave labor offered to western corporations like tribute to Rome, but that has changed there too. They started their own busnesses and are good at this capitalist thing. Many jobs are being displaced by technology, in a lot of cases automation has made onshoring manufacturing competitive as far less people are involved in production.
As for Ukraine I'm of the opinion that once they figured Ukraine could win a plan was hatched to destroy Russian military power and arms stockpiles with an attritional war and slow build up, make Vlad think he can win and suck everything he has in, then finish them off in a catastrophic defeat. Destroying Russian military and economic power while weaning Europe off Russian energy and trade will offer the best long-term security for Ukraine and Europe. Ya want the Russians behind their borders licking their wounded assholes for a decade facing off against an oil rich prosperous EU member Ukraine that is very well defended and sitting at Russia's throat.
Sativied
Well-Known Member
Oh not this again.
80% of proven reserves and approximately 90% of gas production is in the Dnieper-Donets basin, ie. along the Russian border, east of the Dnipro river. Ukrainian gas reserves are largely unproven, theoretical, not even at probable status, while investors want proven. Shell won a production agreement that does not expire until 2063. Then largest investment for Ukraine. Shell cares about one thing only, profits and pulled out, after investing billions, because of the war in Donbas in 2015 already. Short of entirely neutralizing the Russian threat, Shell isn’t going to take the risk again anytime soon.
State-owned Naftogaz, largest company in Ukraine, 50k employers, owner of the transit system, dominates 70% of the market. Ukraine has no intention of democratizing the market, they need Naftogaz.
"You don't look for it if you aren't planning on selling it and conditions for doing that have been looking favorable for a while now."
How about when you want to use it? Sell it to your own population. Ukraine was and is a net importer and for the foreseeable future gas will continue to flow from EU to Ukraine (not physically yet, Ukraine buys Russian gas from several EU countries while it’s in transit). Any increase in gas production will first be used to make Ukraine self sufficient and after rebuilding the demand will increase. In addition to gas going from EU to Ukraine for Ukrainian use, more will flow to Ukraine as the EU wants to use their storage capacity. Apparently, in reality, they don’t expect Ukraine will produce enough to export large amounts.
Ukraine gas rates for consumers are so low there’s little profit to make unless you happen to have old soviet systems in place. While extracting it is extra expensive. Even more so if they’re in the EU by then cause they’ll be confronted with way more regulations. Most of the reserves are shale gas in hard to mine areas, their natural gas fields are almost depleted.
The transit system in Ukraine is old soviet crap, badly maintained, and in dire need of upgrades. The transit deal with Russia will end in 2024, if not renewed it will cost Ukraine billions in transit fees. EU funded research is already underway to see how much of the system can be salvaged for hydrogen, including pink hydrogen created with nuclear power. EU’s ‘hydrogen map’ expands into Ukraine. Part of reconstruction plans of Ukraine is that it’s going to be a test ground for smart grids and renewables. Unlike conservative contrarians in the west, Ukrainians aren’t going to complain about fields of solar panels and windmills entering the view.
An argument one could bring up, imo, is that even if EU isn’t after Ukrainian gas, it doesn’t want Russia to have it either. But then Ukraine’s reserves amount to 3% of what Russia has and Russia isn’t very capable of shale gas extraction without western support.
EU itself doesn’t really need Russian gas anymore. Painful process but in 6-7 years it’s a non-issue. The contracts it has with alternatives are mostly long term, 10 years and much longer. Qatar and US for example are not stupid nor philanthropists. EU wants to ban long term contracts starting 2049.
Leaked analysis in Germany. The planned LNG terminals would be huge overkill. The majority of planned terminals will likely not even be build, others at only 50% capacity.
Gas rates will not entirely drop back to cheap Russian gas rates just yet, governments throughout Europe still pay part of the gas bill, which continues to be a huge motivation to use less and use alternatives and speed up the transition to renewables. Climate neutral is still set for 2045 for Germany, 2050 for the EU.
EU is not after gas from after Russia the least attractive place to get it, Ukraine. You're sextoupling down on a fantasy that will never become reality.
Sativied
Well-Known Member
I disagree, the economic relations provide enough leverage and makes it a completely different situation you compare it to. History agrees with me, it's possible to stop a powerful country from putting millions in to camps. The difference isn't the price we'd have to pay, but the difference in pricing we're willing to pay.
BudmanTX
Well-Known Member
looks like the rats are starting to abandon ship in Tokmak...
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
I don't think the Ukrainians are losing nearly as many men as the Russians, 5 to one or more I think for a variety of reasons. If Biden and other major allies hatched a plan to suck Russia in by appearing to respond to their threats and make them commit everything, then they could destroy Russian military power and their ability to threaten Europe or their weaker neighbors. We are talking long term security here and suppose the Ukrainians or some of them reluctantly agree that this is the only real long-term security for Ukraine but complain as they should! The Ukrainian government can blame the way the war was fought on the allies using the theory you outlined, and it would not be their fault, they can blame the allies and that's ok. I believe there will be a catastrophic defeat for Russia long before the F16s show up, they are more to keep them out. I expect Crimea and the south of Ukraine to be cut off by fall, at least the rail links will be severed in the south of Ukraine and at Kerch. If they don't have Crimea by the time the F-16 arrive, then they will use them to bomb the shit out of the place until the Russians leave and bomb them getting away too.
cannabineer
Ursus marijanus
A cynic might say that China made many more Westerners billionaires than Russia.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
America isn't perfect and neither are other countries that trade with China, the severe suppression of minorities is getting progressively worse and now encompasses the Cantonese. I have my own bone to pick with China over Tibet and I'm aware of the reasons too. Most of the world's advanced microchips are made in Taiwan and everybody has a vital national interest there, that is the main difference, self-interest.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
The Germans are arranging for another 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine, and they are better than what the Russians have too.
DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
The target and just the target, no need of destroying your own infrastructure.