"I can't say Democrats did anything to earn it."
the infrastructure bill, the covid relief bill, the gun bill (such as it is), the chips bill, the inflation reduction bill...the pact act.
not being fuckface republican douchebags...not being involved with white supremacists...not trying to overthrow the legitimate government...seems like they ought to get at least a little credit...
Those acts you list kept the base of support but a turning point for Democrats was Republican over-reach on abortion. If they hadn't done that, we'd be looking at Senate and House strongly under Republican control. The House has shifted to Pugs gaining only 10 (from forty) seats and the Senate leans Dem but is still in play for pugs.
The main
reason given for Biden's disapproval are high inflation (economy), and gun policies. The largest demographic group that will probably decide the outcome of this election are white people, of whom 51% disapprove of Biden while 38% disapprove. They say are not happy with Biden's economy, policies on gun laws, and hold negative views on him personally. That disapproval leaks into the congressional races. Outside of what Biden and the Democratic congress has done, people hold strongly negative views on Congress, which never helps.
Completely outside of rational thought, history plays a large role in forecasting results in this election. In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018,
the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
(source)
Does this sound ignorant and dumbass to you? It does to me, but the fact remains that a lot of people aren't happy about the direction the country is going and their sentiment makes a difference.
Don't forget that the House is strongly affected by Gerrymandering. In states where pugs drew up district maps, Dems have to way outperform just to have a chance of winning. Voter suppression looms large too.
Then again, this isn't a normal election, Repugs are pissing all over themselves when it comes to the quality of their candidates, a lot of Independent voters haven't made up their minds and opinion polls won't be decent indicators of how people will vote until we are closer to the election. Trump looms large. He's not popular among most of the population. If Democrats can keep the election about him, maybe they will manage to beat historical patterns. Which is why I say Democrats didn't EARN the shift in sentiment toward them, Republicans handed it to them.