War

cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
printer said:
I do not think that the West will drop a barrage of nukes for the use of one tactical nuke. That would be irrisposible and may set off events none of us want. I think they might use other means or just toss one to show they mean business. Maybe an out of the way bridge east of Crimea?
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I think I see the rub. I wasn’t specific enough; I was thinking of a massive conventional response, with interdiction of Russian air and sea assets probably high on the list. Having Western strategic bombers boldly overflying Russian territory for all to see
might just have a salutary effect on Russian behavior at the diplomats’ table.

That is for the use of one or two battlefield nukes. There doubtless comes a point where, if Russia used a lot of kilotons, Nato response would be in kind.
But as an amateur, my “armchair field marshal” opinion on this, and where the boundary might be, is likely worth about what you paid for it.

As for the bridge —
I think the most elegant solution would not be to drop it, but to take it whole. Let’s imagine Ukraine maintains the current momentum and succeeds in taking it all back.

I speculate that Ukraine could make a case in the UN for occupying a few dozen square km of territory on the eastern end of Putin’s Folly in Krasnodar oblast, as a security zone against a proven aggressor. It appeals to my sense of enlightened Schadenfreude. ;)
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Vlad does not have as tight a lock on power as he would like and the limits of his power are becoming apparent. His reluctance to declare war and call up a draft are among them. What good would it do when they are using obsolete tanks and buying old out of date ammo from North Korea already? His air force is grounded by corruption, lack of spares and lack of training for the pilots and the army has little equipment left. His whole military was one big Pushkin village of corrupt idiots. Remember, Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe and had a minimum of western aid when this war began.
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I see opinion pieces that are all over the map. "The war in Ukraine will be over soon". "The war is a brutal stalemate with no end in sight"

There is more propaganda produced on this war coming from all side than reliable facts based news reporting. So, I don't trust the headlines or videos. Or you, for that matter.

The war isn't just on the ground, it is an economic one too. Europe is about to go into a recession due to Putin's has cutting off Russian oil, gas and coal supplies that they had become dependent on. Also too, Russia's GDP is probably dropping by double digits, an outside estimate is their economy will lose 40% of GDP. But Putin is a sociopath and he's not personally affected by that. Until he's removed, I don't see him stopping. My guess is Putin will hang in there through the at least winter and maybe another year to try to crack NATO's alliance with Ukraine and US's willingness to ship billions in military equipment each month keep up. Don't forget the US has an election coming up in November. A Republican controlled House is likely and Senate is too close to call, so there will be a change in support when/if that happens.

I'm not saying you are wrong, Russia's military capability has been seriously degraded. They have lost a lot of their best soldiers and equipment. It is doubtful that they now have enough in reserve to prosecute an invasion. What remains to be seen is how well dug in they are in regions they occupy. If this becomes a stalemate, how long will resolve on either side last?
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
It's a classic conventional war now that the Russians have been whittled down to size. If things work out for the Ukrainians near Kherson, it will shift the balance significantly when added to the recent Russian losses in the east. Once that happens and the allies supply the munitions, the Russians are pretty much screwed in the rest of the country. A drive towards the sea of Azov would cut the depleted Russian forces in half, threaten the Kerch bridge directly and that would cut off the Russians in Crimea and southern Ukraine. It would force the reluctant Russians to come out from behind their heavily fortified positions in the Donbas to try and stop them on equal ground.


Russia and Ukraine war map 14 September 2022 - 203 day invasion | Military summary latest news today
4,964 views Sep 14, 2022 Russia and Ukraine war map 14 September 2022 - 203 day invasion | Military summary latest news today
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
printer said:
Why take a promise which does not get rid of the possibility when just rolling into Ukraine will have you greeted as liberators?
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as long as you believe the criminally corrupt intelligence organ you built by hand...and the criminally corrupt generals you picked by hand...and the criminally corrupt kleptocrats you put in office because you thought you could control them...
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Such large numbers of prisoners would be employed as human shields against further attack by nukes.
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directly against the Geneva convention...
https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/human-shields/
since we seem to be trying to maintain the moral high ground, this would not be a good idea...
and i really don't think putin would give a flying fuck at a rolling rat's prolapsed asshole if he killed thousands of his own men, as long as he still had enough to send into the hot zone to secure it, with their inadequate, out dated radiation gear...
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
ANC said:
Would be cool if you could use the defeated army as soldiers like the Mongols.
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who wants them? an army you would have to equip, and train, and they would still have no spirit, no drive?...all russian soldiers do is murder, rape, and get falling down drunk...keep the fuckers, i wouldn't have them.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
I see opinion pieces that are all over the map. "The war in Ukraine will be over soon". "The war is a brutal stalemate with no end in sight"

There is more propaganda produced on this war coming from all side than reliable facts based news reporting. So, I don't trust the headlines or videos. Or you, for that matter.

The war isn't just on the ground, it is an economic one too. Europe is about to go into a recession due to Putin's has cutting off Russian oil, gas and coal supplies that they had become dependent on. Also too, Russia's GDP is probably dropping by double digits, an outside estimate is their economy will lose 40% of GDP. But Putin is a sociopath and he's not personally affected by that. Until he's removed, I don't see him stopping. My guess is Putin will hang in there through the at least winter and maybe another year to try to crack NATO's alliance with Ukraine and US's willingness to ship billions in military equipment each month keep up. Don't forget the US has an election coming up in November. A Republican controlled House is likely and Senate is too close to call, so there will be a change in support when/if that happens.

I'm not saying you are wrong, Russia's military capability has been seriously degraded. They have lost a lot of their best soldiers and equipment. It is doubtful that they now have enough in reserve to prosecute an invasion. What remains to be seen is how well dug in they are in regions they occupy. If this becomes a stalemate, how long will resolve on either side last?
Click to expand...
It will be a hard winter in Europe, but they will break their dependency on Russian oil, it's like life, ya get out what ya put in, in terms of work and sacrifice, unless dumb luck gets ya.

From my reading of the tea leaves, it looks like Ukraine will clear most of the country of Russians by the end of the year, Crimea might take longer. However the situation in Crimea could change with the loss of Kherson and the destruction of the Kerch bridge. A drive to the sea of Azov in the east would be all that it takes to capture a lot of Russians and their equipment, most of Vlad's army in fact. Good generalship is a humane way to conduct war, cutting off forces in modern warfare leads to quick surrenders when morale is low. We could see the surrender of over 30,00 Russians in cut off Kherson and the capture of all their equipment in a few weeks. If they cut the bridge at Kerch and cut then in half in the south it would mean one Helluva lot of prisoners and a lot of Russian equipment. Good intelligence, leadership, morale and generalship make it possible.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
cannabineer said:
As for the bridge —
I think the most elegant solution would not be to drop it, but to take it whole. Let’s imagine Ukraine maintains the current momentum and succeeds in taking it all back.

I speculate that Ukraine could make a case in the UN for occupying a few dozen square km of territory on the eastern end of Putin’s Folly in Krasnodar oblast, as a security zone against a proven aggressor. It appeals to my sense of enlightened Schadenfreude. ;)
Click to expand...
The problem is that capturing the bridge means shipments and soldiers can still be sent in which makes taking the bridge much harder. And there is little upside for Ukraine having the bridge intact.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Roger A. Shrubber said:
directly against the Geneva convention...
https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/human-shields/
since we seem to be trying to maintain the moral high ground, this would not be a good idea...
and i really don't think putin would give a flying fuck at a rolling rat's prolapsed asshole if he killed thousands of his own men, as long as he still had enough to send into the hot zone to secure it, with their inadequate, out dated radiation gear...
Click to expand...
Using nukes changes the ballgame completely and housing them in Ukrainian cities would not be out of line
 
cannabineer

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
printer said:
The problem is that capturing the bridge means shipments and soldiers can still be sent in which makes taking the bridge much harder. And there is little upside for Ukraine having the bridge intact.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that is why the UN would have to put its imprimatur on it.

But the idea of putting big signs on both approaches that say “now under new management!” in Ukrainian would be a fine way to tweak the tails of some aggrieved Russians. Jmo.
 
Roger A. Shrubber

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
Using nukes changes the ballgame completely and housing them in Ukrainian cities would not be out of line
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if putin drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian city, that is all fucking rules out the window, already. tactical nukes are made specifically to be used on a battlefield, to minimize fallout that could effect civilian populations. any use on a civilian population center would illicit an immediate response from NATO, probably a full out invasion, after a good carpet bombing of all known military installations, and the destruction of their entire fleet at sea.
at least that would be my response...so probably NATO will...make a resolution of some kind? get very cross and send russia to it's room without tea?
 
BudmanTX

BudmanTX

Well-Known Member
printer said:
There will never be a better time.
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i totally agree.....looks like Armenia and Azerbaijan are getting into a scuffle as well....can't remember which one is Russian backed though......things are gonna get interesting

Imagine if Saint Petersburg rose up (the Leningrad Oblat) and shot the finger at putin, they already want him removed....
 
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