War

[printer]

They should be able to get a start on the gas fields in the west of the country. Ukraine had deals with western oil companies as far back as 2010 who did exploration and when the word of reserves got out, the war in the Donbass started just after and the companies pulled out. There are between 1.6 and 5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves in Ukraine, if memory serves me. Europe needs a dependable source of energy and petrochemicals and Ukraine is close by. Apparently they have a large existing NG infrastructure with pipelines to the west and storage capacity. I dunno how long it would take a drilling crew to punch holes into the gas pockets, but a dozen rigs could get a fair amount of gas flowing in a year of drilling. From what I can see they just need to drill the wells and hook them up to existing infrastructure that was constructed in soviet times, before this resource was known about.

Considering the importance of oil and gas income to Russia, the development of Ukrainian resources would be a threat to them. Not long after the discovery of these resources, the war in the Donbas and annexation of Crimea began, then the oil companies pulled out. I also think it is a factor in rapidly admitting Ukraine into the EU, internal energy security. It seems such a big factor in all this shit and I'm kinda curious as to why there is not more mention of it. If they were doing anything to move the idea forward, I don't think they would mention it, the Russians would not be happy about their cash cow being cut off.

So oil companies are going to jump in and 'just hook them up' with Putin not noticing. Fuck man. Also it is not just digging a well and hooking up to a pipe.

In general, natural gas processing includes the following steps:

1. Condensate and Water Removal.
2. Acid Gas Removal.
3. Dehydration – moisture removal.
4. Mercury Removal.
5. Nitrogen Rejection.
6. NGL Recovery, Separation, Fractionation, and Treatment of Natural Gas Liquids.

There is no drilling for gas until the war is over.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

So oil companies are going to jump in and 'just hook them up' with Putin not noticing. Fuck man. Also it is not just digging a well and hooking up to a pipe.

In general, natural gas processing includes the following steps:

1. Condensate and Water Removal.
2. Acid Gas Removal.
3. Dehydration – moisture removal.
4. Mercury Removal.
5. Nitrogen Rejection.
6. NGL Recovery, Separation, Fractionation, and Treatment of Natural Gas Liquids.

There is no drilling for gas until the war is over.

Such a plant is feed from raw gas pipelines from the production wells I'm not sure how far the raw gas can be transported, but it would need to be processed before liquification or being passed to customers and I suppose how much processing it requires depends on the source.

No exploiting it, though wells could be drilled and capped in the west at least, or processed in plants in Poland. I suppose those involved know best, but it is there and there is a need in Europe. I think oil and gas had much to do with the cause of this war and it will have much to do with an eventual peace. It also helps to explain the accelerated pace of EU membership for Ukraine. Either way I think Russia is finished as a European energy supplier for the foreseeable future, they cannot allow themselves to be under Putin's power again. They are still sending gas while playing with the valve, but over the longer term they are finished.

 

[Sativied]

The whole idea of Ukraine becoming a reliable, dependable, secure energy supplier for the EU, a regional economic superpower, replacing Russia as supplier, it having anything to do with accepting Ukraine as a EU candidate, sounds like a B-movie that has no basis in reality and is why it’s not spoken of in this dimension. At best their resources will contribute a little to helping them get back on their feet. There are many reasons this fictional future is highly unlikely to become a reality, let alone a key issue in the war from EU‘s perspective.

- Ukraine is a gas transit country, for many reasons, and not a very reliable one. Germany wanted Nordstream 2 to avoid going through Ukraine and Poland, having old and inefficient pipelines. Over 100 points where gas is stolen with pressure drops as a result.
- Ukraine is a net gas importer (till war including from Russia), the projected increase over the next few years without the war wouldn’t have made them an exporter.
- Having gas in the ground is far from having gas in pipelines. Pipelines running over fields is at best a nice bonus, doesn’t make it much easier. There aren’t a whole lot of companies who can do it on a meaningful scale and want to risk financing it. Shell, Exxon, for example, also tried and bailed. Unrest in just Crimea and corruption was enough to cancel projects of billions. The suggestion they will come back and try again anytime soon is just absurd. Oil and gas companies are not quite the philanthropists.
- The main difference between Ukraine and Russia is their current leadership… (applause for myself for putting that so diplomatic)
- Ukraine is at war. And that war is unlikely going to be over soon, at least not in a way that leads to a stable and safe enough situation that words like secure and dependable apply. Even if they push all Russians back across the border, there’s still an agressive shithole with nukes just across the border.
- Even if you ignore that harsh reality, it would take many years for Ukraine to produce gas for export in a way EU wants (of course different rules apply to Russia…) and in a yearly amount that matters enough to even explore this fantasy. By that time several things will have happened. EU will no longer need gas from Russia. That part of the energy demand will have been replaced by renewables and other sources, who require long term contracts. It would make zero sense to go (back) to relying on gas from Ukraine in any significant matter. Especially when we’re phasing out gas entirely. There already was no long term commitment to gas anymore, the war only changed that by forcing the EU to go faster, not a different direction than planned.
- Germany made a mistake choosing natural gas as a transition to renewables because of self-imposed gradual climate goals. One they will have to correct ‘thanks’ to Putin. Apart from Germany and a few shitholes in the east, the reliance on russian gas as well as gas itself is heavily sensationalized by the media. The risk for Germany isn’t the end of the nation, it’s a recession, or more realistically, they grow a little bit less fast for 2 years. Or just the blunt reality, they’ll stop being pussies about their nuclear power plants and continue to use them. The media loves to use sensational percentages. France imports X % of their gas from Russia… oh they must depend on it then. No, cause they use relatively little gas at all and that russian part makes up just a couple of % of their total energy consumption. The need for russian gas will end soon, and with it Ukraine’s role in EU’s gas consumption, costing them billions per year.

Should have gone with EU wants relatively green nuclear power and solar power from Ukraine. Always enjoy some facts in the fiction I read.

There, I said it, couldn’t let this ridiculousness go unreplied any longer. Feel much better now. No offense, carry on fantasizing, it’s a free world in our case.

 

[printer]

I went to school taking Instrumentation Engineering and a big employer of graduates is in the oil and gas industry. So I knew a little about (and less now after the years that gone by) the workings of getting it out of the ground and into a usable form. This is not a minimal undertaking. and as said, oil companies do not do things for the well being of others. I do think we will have gas for a few more decades at least. It is also handy for making fertilizer and other products. Germany went to gas to get away from nuclear and ween themselves off the brown coal they have in abundance. Their bet on Russia went south but their intentions were good. If Putin did not want to make a mini-USSR gas from Russia would not be an issue.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The whole idea of Ukraine becoming a reliable, dependable, secure energy supplier for the EU, a regional economic superpower, replacing Russia as supplier, it having anything to do with accepting Ukraine as a EU candidate, sounds like a B-movie that has no basis in reality and is why it’s not spoken of in this dimension. At best their resources will contribute a little to helping them get back on their feet. There are many reasons this fictional future is highly unlikely to become a reality, let alone a key issue in the war from EU‘s perspective.

- Ukraine is a gas transit country, for many reasons, and not a very reliable one. Germany wanted Nordstream 2 to avoid going through Ukraine and Poland, having old and inefficient pipelines. Over 100 points where gas is stolen with pressure drops as a result.
- Ukraine is a net gas importer (till war including from Russia), the projected increase over the next few years without the war wouldn’t have made them an exporter.
- Having gas in the ground is far from having gas in pipelines. Pipelines running over fields is at best a nice bonus, doesn’t make it much easier. There aren’t a whole lot of companies who can do it on a meaningful scale and want to risk financing it. Shell, Exxon, for example, also tried and bailed. Unrest in just Crimea and corruption was enough to cancel projects of billions. The suggestion they will come back and try again anytime soon is just absurd. Oil and gas companies are not quite the philanthropists.
- The main difference between Ukraine and Russia is their current leadership… (applause for myself for putting that so diplomatic)
- Ukraine is at war. And that war is unlikely going to be over soon, at least not in a way that leads to a stable and safe enough situation that words like secure and dependable apply. Even if they push all Russians back across the border, there’s still an agressive shithole with nukes just across the border.
- Even if you ignore that harsh reality, it would take many years for Ukraine to produce gas for export in a way EU wants (of course different rules apply to Russia…) and in a yearly amount that matters enough to even explore this fantasy. By that time several things will have happened. EU will no longer need gas from Russia. That part of the energy demand will have been replaced by renewables and other sources, who require long term contracts. It would make zero sense to go (back) to relying on gas from Ukraine in any significant matter. Especially when we’re phasing out gas entirely. There already was no long term commitment to gas anymore, the war only changed that by forcing the EU to go faster, not a different direction than planned.
- Germany made a mistake choosing natural gas as a transition to renewables because of self-imposed gradual climate goals. One they will have to correct ‘thanks’ to Putin. Apart from Germany and a few shitholes in the east, the reliance on russian gas as well as gas itself is heavily sensationalized by the media. The risk for Germany isn’t the end of the nation, it’s a recession, or more realistically, they grow a little bit less fast for 2 years. Or just the blunt reality, they’ll stop being pussies about their nuclear power plants and continue to use them. The media loves to use sensational percentages. France imports X % of their gas from Russia… oh they must depend on it then. No, cause they use relatively little gas at all and that russian part makes up just a couple of % of their total energy consumption. The need for russian gas will end soon, and with it Ukraine’s role in EU’s gas consumption, costing them billions per year.

Should have gone with EU wants relatively green nuclear power and solar power from Ukraine. Always enjoy some facts in the fiction I read.

There, I said it, couldn’t let this ridiculousness go unreplied any longer. Feel much better now. No offense, carry on fantasizing, it’s a free world in our case.

So you are saying that Europe has no need of NG or petrochemicals over the next decade? Renewables won't cut it for power generation and will need to be supplemented for awhile and the transition to EVs in the EU should take a decade with diminishing demand. It is not an all or nothing proposition and supply can grow over time, there are also fields in the extreme west of the country that can be exploited and processing facilities located in Poland if required. It is mostly Germany that must be weaned off Russian energy and burning NG to generate electricity in Germany and Poland is a lot better than burning shitty coal and lignite. Germany also has a large petrochemical industry that will be going for sometime into the future. I'm a fan of the green new grid and this war will accelerate it, but it is a decade or more away at best. In five years the battery technology should be starting to revolutionize EV's and energy storage, it would take Europe a decade to electrify trucking in the EU with pantograph systems to charge trucks on the move.

We will see what the war situation looks like at the end of the year, because I think this war is about energy and to an extent Russian imperialism. As for facts, I posted a map of Ukrainian energy resources and the obvious threat and competition they represent to Russia. Their discovery by western oil companies was quickly followed by war in the Donbas and the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

 

[printer]

Natural gas overview
Poland is a small producer of natural gas with domestic production stable at around 4 bcm per year from 2009 to 2020.
Consumption of natural gas in the country is set to rise by close to 50%, to 30 bcm by 2030
Expiration of a long-term supply contract with Russian Gazprom by the end of 2022, will pose additional challenges to secure stable gas deliveries, especially in view of the expected significant increase of consumption over next decade.

Diversification of supply sources and routes, development of natural gas infrastructures, expansion of underground storage capacity and of domestic gas production are the key elements of Poland’s gas security policy.

Poland Natural Gas Security Policy – Analysis - IEA

Poland Natural Gas Security Policy - Analysis and findings. An article by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Does not look like Poland has a lot of capacity.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Natural gas overview
Poland is a small producer of natural gas with domestic production stable at around 4 bcm per year from 2009 to 2020.
Consumption of natural gas in the country is set to rise by close to 50%, to 30 bcm by 2030
Expiration of a long-term supply contract with Russian Gazprom by the end of 2022, will pose additional challenges to secure stable gas deliveries, especially in view of the expected significant increase of consumption over next decade.

Diversification of supply sources and routes, development of natural gas infrastructures, expansion of underground storage capacity and of domestic gas production are the key elements of Poland’s gas security policy.

Poland Natural Gas Security Policy – Analysis - IEA

Poland Natural Gas Security Policy - Analysis and findings. An article by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Does not look like Poland has a lot of capacity.

We will see what the war situation brings, the Ukrainians would like it over by winter, but I doubt that will be the case. It all depends on western supplies of weapons and munitions, but if they keep on going as they are, the Russians will be in serious trouble before too long and their offensive capabilities are diminishing weekly. Attacking at Kherson is causing the Russians to thin out their forces in the east to bolster defenses in the the south. Cutting off the forces north and west of the Dnipro would be a good start and that appears to be what they are doing. Threaten the entrance to Crimea and you will get their attention.

If the EU has a plan in partnership with Ukraine, I think they could develop the energy fairly quickly, considering the emergency situation. Missile defense systems can protect processing facilities in the future from the Russians lobbing missiles and of course the Ukrainians could retaliate in kind. The Ukrainians might drive Russia back to the war start line in February and perhaps further back than that in the east. The Russians must be scrambling to adapt to the introduction of HIMARS and adaptation is slowed by their C&C and officers being destroyed, along with their fuel and ammo dumps.

 

[cannabineer]

Even if our fossil carbon fuel use zeroes, we will still be pulling petroleum out of the ground. It is literally the starting material for the 20th Century*. There’s centuries of supply for manufacture, and we won’t run out ‘til the price of Kuiper tholeiitic tar (delivered) drops below oil’s.

Coal tar gets the Best Supporting Oscar for the second half of the 19th. But cars and aircraft would be expensive to fuel. Petroleum fixed that. Until the Otto motor became widely used, the light naphtha fraction from oil was waste. The motor turned oil’s liability (lotsa light hydrocarbon) into a feature, and the rest …

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Even if our fossil carbon fuel use zeroes, we will still be pulling petroleum out of the ground. It is literally the starting material for the 20th Century*. There’s centuries of supply for manufacture, and we won’t run out ‘til the price of Kuiper tholeiitic tar (delivered) drops below oil’s.

Coal tar gets the Best Supporting Oscar for the second half of the 19th. But cars and aircraft would be expensive to fuel. Petroleum fixed that. Until the Otto motor became widely used, the light naphtha fraction from oil was waste. The motor turned oil’s liability (lotsa light hydrocarbon) into a feature, and the rest …

Just imagine how many gallons of (potential) gasoline were just burnt off as waste, till they figured out a use for it. There was a period of 33 years where they manufactured a LOT of kerosene and just "disposed" of the waste. it had to be in the millions of gallons, maybe hundreds of millions?
Just imagine how much damage it did to the atmosphere back then...And kept doing, as they started refining it for fuel. They went from no cars in 1892 to 9 million cars in 1920, by 1930 it was 23 million. none of them with catalytic converters, none of the refineries with filters, none of them treated their exhaust.

 

[cannabineer]

Just imagine how many gallons of (potential) gasoline were just burnt off as waste, till they figured out a use for it. There was a period of 33 years where they manufactured a LOT of kerosene and just "disposed" of the waste. it had to be in the millions of gallons, maybe hundreds of millions?
Just imagine how much damage it did to the atmosphere back then...And kept doing, as they started refining it for fuel. They went from no cars in 1892 to 9 million cars in 1920, by 1930 it was 23 million. none of them with catalytic converters, none of the refineries with filters, none of them treated their exhaust.

The inflections are interesting. Late 19th and early 20th shows how much we torched off.



You can also see the effects of deforestation (16th and 17th cty) and the growth of coal from rhe mid-18th. You can see the Great Depression and then, both literally and figuratively: to the moon!

 

[printer]

We will see what the war situation brings, the Ukrainians would like it over by winter, but I doubt that will be the case. It all depends on western supplies of weapons and munitions, but if they keep on going as they are, the Russians will be in serious trouble before too long and their offensive capabilities are diminishing weekly. Attacking at Kherson is causing the Russians to thin out their forces in the east to bolster defenses in the the south. Cutting off the forces north and west of the Dnipro would be a good start and that appears to be what they are doing. Threaten the entrance to Crimea and you will get their attention.

If the EU has a plan in partnership with Ukraine, I think they could develop the energy fairly quickly, considering the emergency situation. Missile defense systems can protect processing facilities in the future from the Russians lobbing missiles and of course the Ukrainians could retaliate in kind. The Ukrainians might drive Russia back to the war start line in February and perhaps further back than that in the east. The Russians must be scrambling to adapt to the introduction of HIMARS and adaptation is slowed by their C&C and officers being destroyed, along with their fuel and ammo dumps.

And how much would Shell have to pay to the dead construction worker's families that got wiped out by the Russians building the processing plant. Recall just this week Russia fired four missiles into Odessa and two got knocked down. They do a reasonable job but are not 100%. You will not get any construction going until the end of the war.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

And how much would Shell have to pay to the dead construction worker's families that got wiped out by the Russians building the processing plant. Recall just this week Russia fired four missiles into Odessa and two got knocked down. They do a reasonable job but are not 100%. You will not get any construction going until the end of the war.

I figure Ukrainian workers would do the heavy lifting and the EU would provide some kind of liability protection. Facilities to process raw Ukrainian gas could be built in Poland for the western fields. The point is ya have to start somewhere and I wouldn't expect them to announce it. We will see how things pan out in a few months and how much long range striking power the Russians have left, and how much of Ukraine they lose in the south and east. Being out of range of most of their artillery and rockets helps a lot with working in peace and their longer range stuff appears to be somewhat inaccurate and a lot of it can be dealt with by anti missile systems.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

I figure Ukrainian workers would do the heavy lifting and the EU would provide some kind of liability protection. Facilities to process raw Ukrainian gas could be built in Poland for the western fields. The point is ya have to start somewhere and I wouldn't expect them to announce it. We will see how things pan out in a few months and how much long range striking power the Russians have left, and how much of Ukraine they lose in the south and east. Being out of range of most of their artillery and rockets helps a lot with working in peace and their longer range stuff appears to be somewhat inaccurate and a lot of it can be dealt with by anti missile systems.

if they're doing anything like that, it's probably to supply themselves with this winter, and they're probably being pretty circumspect about it.

 

[cannabineer]

I figure Ukrainian workers would do the heavy lifting and the EU would provide some kind of liability protection. Facilities to process raw Ukrainian gas could be built in Poland for the western fields. The point is ya have to start somewhere and I wouldn't expect them to announce it. We will see how things pan out in a few months and how much long range striking power the Russians have left, and how much of Ukraine they lose in the south and east. Being out of range of most of their artillery and rockets helps a lot with working in peace and their longer range stuff appears to be somewhat inaccurate and a lot of it can be dealt with by anti missile systems.

I lean toward printer’s analysis.
While the Chinese have proven that they can build field hospitals over a weekend, even they would need a month to build a gas processing plant. That is IF they have prepositioned kits like the hospitals.

At this point I would have said something dismissing China as not having all the tech for ground to tanker/pipeline, but a quick googling reminded me of their big investments across Africa getting the goods out of the ground, onshore and off. They have or will have the skills.

But that works in peacetime. Nobody but military engineers could touch it, and engineers catch a lot of metal.* Especially with enemy aircraft about. Job 1 is concluding the shooting war.

*i also suspect that Ukraine’s engineers are a bit busy.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I lean toward printer’s analysis.
While the Chinese have proven that they can build field hospitals over a weekend, even they would need a month to build a gas processing plant. That is IF they have prepositioned kits like the hospitals.

At this point I would have said something dismissing China as not having all the tech for ground to tanker/pipeline, but a quick googling reminded me of their big investments across Africa getting the goods out of the ground, onshore and off. They have or will have the skills.

But that works in peacetime. Nobody but military engineers could touch it, and engineers catch a lot of metal.* Especially with enemy aircraft about. Job 1 is concluding the shooting war.

*i also suspect that Ukraine’s engineers are a bit busy.

I don't think Ukrainian resources development could happen on any scale, except for perhaps in the west of the country near Poland, wells might also be drilled and capped for now. As I said before, the only thing standing in the way of developing this resource is the Russian army and it needs to be not just defeated, but destroyed as an offensive force. Their precision long range missiles are dwindling and precision for them is not the same thing as for the west, unless they are using laser guidance. The main idea is while Vlad might mobilize many men, he will have difficulty arming and equipping them, they can't even build obsolete T-72 tanks without foreign parts.

We will see how long this war lasts, there are competing interests and strategic approaches, some prefer a longer war and want sanctions on Russia to last. Europe is gonna be in for a cold winter it would appear, you can depend on Vlad playing with their gas valve. On the other hand he could piss them off and weapons would pour into Ukraine and his army would be finished of quickly. Also if he doesn't supply gas he doesn't make money and he needs money, cause nothing drains a treasury like war.

 

[cannabineer]

I don't think Ukrainian resources development could happen on any scale, except for perhaps in the west of the country near Poland, wells might also be drilled and capped for now. As I said before, the only thing standing in the way of developing this resource is the Russian army and it needs to be not just defeated, but destroyed as an offensive force. Their precision long range missiles are dwindling and precision for them is not the same thing as for the west, unless they are using laser guidance. The main idea is while Vlad might mobilize many men, he will have difficulty arming and equipping them, they can't even build obsolete T-72 tanks without foreign parts.

We will see how long this war lasts, there are competing interests and strategic approaches, some prefer a longer war and want sanctions on Russia to last. Europe is gonna be in for a cold winter it would appear, you can depend on Vlad playing with their gas valve. On the other hand he could piss them off and weapons would pour into Ukraine and his army would be finished of quickly. Also if he doesn't supply gas he doesn't make money and he needs money, cause nothing drains a treasury like war.

I’m not sure the war will be over soon. And Europe is even more acutely aware of the

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

I don't think Ukrainian resources development could happen on any scale, except for perhaps in the west of the country near Poland, wells might also be drilled and capped for now. As I said before, the only thing standing in the way of developing this resource is the Russian army and it needs to be not just defeated, but destroyed as an offensive force. Their precision long range missiles are dwindling and precision for them is not the same thing as for the west, unless they are using laser guidance. The main idea is while Vlad might mobilize many men, he will have difficulty arming and equipping them, they can't even build obsolete T-72 tanks without foreign parts.

We will see how long this war lasts, there are competing interests and strategic approaches, some prefer a longer war and want sanctions on Russia to last. Europe is gonna be in for a cold winter it would appear, you can depend on Vlad playing with their gas valve. On the other hand he could piss them off and weapons would pour into Ukraine and his army would be finished of quickly. Also if he doesn't supply gas he doesn't make money and he needs money, cause nothing drains a treasury like war.

https://www.voanews.com/a/sanctioned-russia-becomes-china-s-main-source-of-oil-customs-data-show-/6630543.html

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-russian-oil-imports-jump-over-50-times-since-april-official-122062301046_1.html

he's gonna supply gas, just not to Europe

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I’m not sure the war will be over soon. And Europe is even more acutely aware of the
View attachment 5170246

View attachment 5170247

Well they are doing a pretty good job of strangling him slowly, US Sec of def Austin let the cat out of the bag awhile back and Joe told him and Blinken to STFU! The idea is to destroy the Russian army who are fully committed to the struggle. I surmise that also means destroying the Russian economy with a long war too and that means weaning Europe of Russian energy and keeping sanctions on Russia for as long as they can. They want Russia eliminated as a conventional threat to Europe or even it's other neighbors. The eastern Europeans and former soviet slave states are very hawkish about the war and Joe is low key and quietly supplying the arms and support required.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

https://www.voanews.com/a/sanctioned-russia-becomes-china-s-main-source-of-oil-customs-data-show-/6630543.html

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-russian-oil-imports-jump-over-50-times-since-april-official-122062301046_1.html

he's gonna supply gas, just not to Europe

I figure over the next decade it will become increasingly hectic in the oil market with large scale EV adoption causing a drop in demand. One thing Europe is doing is energy savings with plans to upgrade insulation windows and doors. Heat pumps are another energy saver and if they use a ground loop they can give up to 5 watts of heat for every watt of energy used. It will be dynamic market IMHO with sellers coming to the realization that EV's and other green technologies will cause markets to shrink over the next couple of decades. Countries like Venezuela and Iran have vast reserves and will want to get in on the action while there is still some. In short I expect this technological change to be reflected in the price of oil in coming years. The mantra might be sell it while you can for many producing countries.

 

[Grandpapy]

I don't think Ukrainian resources development could happen on any scale, except for perhaps in the west of the country near Poland, wells might also be drilled and capped for now.

Chaney's move fast. Halliburton can prove you wrong.