i'm not quite as optimistic as diy, it's far from over, and it will be a bloody fight. but i have confidence that Ukraine not only can win, but that they will win...
if you split the difference between those two estimates, that's 22,000 dead, which statistically, means more than 50,000 wounded too badly to fight any longer, so a fair estimate would seem to me to be 70,000 russians out of the fight.
while they have nearly a million in their armed services, they only have about 280,000 actual soldiers...that would be a 25% loss...in less than four months. tell me they can sustain those kinds of losses.
the Ukrainians started the war with 195,000 actual soldiers, i can't find accurate numbers at the moment for how many have volunteered since the war started, but most estimates are 20,000 or more. they have another 11,000,000 men of appropriate age if they need them.
the best estimates say that around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with another 18,000 wounded too badly to fight.
that's less than 8%, or a third of the russians losses, on a percentage basis.
the math just keeps saying the russians are hemorrhaging men and material, at a rate they cannot sustain. lets just hope the situation doesn't change drastically any time soon.