I dunno. If you cut the data differently, it looks like 9 states might decide it. But, yeah, this all just means 4 or 9 states will get all the attention from campaigns. The rest just wait around while their future is decided for them. Not a fan of the Electoral College.
In the snake shaped figure below, light red and light blue states are toss-ups because voter preference a the time of the poll fell within the statistical margin of error.
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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