Lockdowns don't work.

[abandonconflict]

View attachment 4534266

Poorly implemented travel restrictions in Singapore. I wasn't even including it along with the 3 examples I gave in the OP due to that. Aside from that, lockdowns have always been part of their strategy anyway. They just called it something else and it didn't work.

Singapore coronavirus surge raises fears of post-lockdown breakouts

City state reports 142 new infections as other countries eye ways out of lockdown amid economic fears

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dr.Amber Trichome]

If we had unlimited testing and tracing we would not have to lock down. If patient zero was found early and was quarantined and traced then end of pandemic. If Trump has jumped on the tests and tracings early but due to lack of foresight on all leaders here we are.

 

[Budley Doright]

If we had unlimited testing and tracing we would not have to lock down. If patient zero was found early and was quarantined and traced then end of pandemic. If Trump has jumped on the tests and tracings early but due to lack of foresight on all leaders here we are.

Yes I think your right, early action, detection, and tracking. Canada was allowing unrestricted travel well into the crisis and we lost it. When community transmissions started to escalate then we went to deacon 3 so to speak.

 

[Budley Doright]

Poorly implemented travel restrictions in Singapore. I wasn't even including it along with the 3 examples I gave in the OP due to that. Aside from that, lockdowns have always been part of their strategy anyway. They just called it something else and it didn't work.

Singapore coronavirus surge raises fears of post-lockdown breakouts

City state reports 142 new infections as other countries eye ways out of lockdown amid economic fears

www.theguardian.com

Actually you gave 4 but one seems to have left the building lol. So what exactly do you consider a lockdown? Maybe clarify exactly what that is to you will clear some of this up.

 

[abandonconflict]

If we had unlimited testing and tracing we would not have to lock down. If patient zero was found early and was quarantined and traced then end of pandemic. If Trump has jumped on the tests and tracings early but due to lack of foresight on all leaders here we are.

At this point, I don't expect that the biggest lockdowns can be simply halted. this is mostly due to the fact that people in places like Rome and New York may be too sick to work. Let's look at the US to the exclusion of other countries for a moment just to hypothesize here on how we go forward. Let's assume the the entire New York Metropolitan region stays largely locked down, just to maintain order and with the assumption that people simply can't return to work. The rest of the country is still in the relatively nascent stages of the spread.

The rest of the country could definitely implement a massive test and trace program that would allow for the reopening of the economy. The FDA has recently approved a 15 minute home test kit that people can use at home. It's not 100% accurate but it's cheap and it's good enough as the first step in a tracing program. The company that invented them can make 50k by next week. If many companies also produce them, we'll have millions. They would expose infection chains and greatly aid tracing.

There are already drive through testing sites in Michigan similar to those in South Korea which expose healthcare workers to very little risk and do not make patients sit in a waiting room in a hospital. They give results by SMS in 3 days. The tests can be mass produced as well as a single South Korean company can produce hundreds of thousands per day. It is totally feasible to implement such a testing regime if the government decides to do so and get's production started.

The tracing programs are already being implemented and many regional health authorities are already in the process of hiring tens of thousands of people to run them. If legislation could be drafted quickly, there is already an app that can utilize existing networks and coverage and personal devices and rapidly create covid maps, even if many people do not participate, infection chains would be exposed and those who do participate could more easily know when to isolate or prove that they are employable.

It would work. Otherwise, there are going to have to be lockdowns probably until there's a vaccine. With what we've seen in the lockdown in NYC, there are 7468 new cases since yesterday and 6337 cases from the previous day. That means that the rate of spread has increased 16% despite the severe lockdown in that city. What the strategy for such a lock down is and has been is to "flatten the curve". That means they're expecting, eventually the number of new cases will become flat. So at this rate, we'd be lucky if it flattens out at 7500 new cases per day. Then it will stay at about that rate for days or even weeks and then begin to taper off. Mind you, we'd still be seeing THOUSANDS OF NEW CASES PER DAY for months. If we're very very lucky, the number of new cases per day will decrease at the same rate that it increased after that flat period. Most likely, and this is the strategy, they will simply be able to get to a point where people are eventually recovering or dying as fast as they're getting infected so that the healthcare system isn't over-burdened.

 

[abandonconflict]

The very central fact with the "lockdown and flatten the curve" strategy is that we graph new cases logarithmically. That means we take the number of new cases per day and graph a line by how quickly that number grows or declines. We have not reached the flattening inflection point. The number of new cases per day is getting drastically higher every day. So as a country, the strategy is that it will eventually stop getting higher. Who knows what that number will be when it flattens out. It could be 25,000 new cases per day or even many more. That's just when it flattens out. Then we're still looking at having that number of new cases everyday until that number gradually (hopefully) starts to get smaller. The major premise in that strategy is that the healthcare system could be geared to manage that number of new cases per day.

All other priorities in society would be rescinded and the economy would be essentially severely hampered. The nation would not recover any time soon. That 25k number is optimistic. In NYC alone, it would be optimistic to hope for it to flatten at 7500 new cases per day, that would be if it flattened out right now.

 

[abandonconflict]

Actually you gave 4 but one seems to have left the building lol. So what exactly do you consider a lockdown? Maybe clarify exactly what that is to you will clear some of this up.

No, in the OP I gave 3 and also pointed to Sweden because even with no lockdown or test and trace, they're still experiencing far less case growth than NYC. Someone else foisted Singapore into my argument and I made the mistake of accepting it.

Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, test and trace.

 

[Dr.Amber Trichome]

At this point, I don't expect that the biggest lockdowns can be simply halted. this is mostly due to the fact that people in places like Rome and New York may be too sick to work. Let's look at the US to the exclusion of other countries for a moment just to hypothesize here on how we go forward. Let's assume the the entire New York Metropolitan region stays largely locked down, just to maintain order and with the assumption that people simply can't return to work. The rest of the country is still in the relatively nascent stages of the spread.

The rest of the country could definitely implement a massive test and trace program that would allow for the reopening of the economy. The FDA has recently approved a 15 minute home test kit that people can use at home. It's not 100% accurate but it's cheap and it's good enough as the first step in a tracing program. The company that invented them can make 50k by next week. If many companies also produce them, we'll have millions. They would expose infection chains and greatly aid tracing.

There are already drive through testing sites in Michigan similar to those in South Korea which expose healthcare workers to very little risk and do not make patients sit in a waiting room in a hospital. They give results by SMS in 3 days. The tests can be mass produced as well as a single South Korean company can produce hundreds of thousands per day. It is totally feasible to implement such a testing regime if the government decides to do so and get's production started.

The tracing programs are already being implemented and many regional health authorities are already in the process of hiring tens of thousands of people to run them. If legislation could be drafted quickly, there is already an app that can utilize existing networks and coverage and personal devices and rapidly create covid maps, even if many people do not participate, infection chains would be exposed and those who do participate could more easily know when to isolate or prove that they are employable.

It would work. Otherwise, there are going to have to be lockdowns probably until there's a vaccine. With what we've seen in the lockdown in NYC, there are 7468 new cases since yesterday and 6337 cases from the previous day. That means that the rate of spread has increased 16% despite the severe lockdown in that city. What the strategy for such a lock down is and has been is to "flatten the curve". That means they're expecting, eventually the number of new cases will become flat. So at this rate, we'd be lucky if it flattens out at 7500 new cases per day. Then it will stay at about that rate for days or even weeks and then begin to taper off. Mind you, we'd still be seeing THOUSANDS OF NEW CASES PER DAY for months. If we're very very lucky, the number of new cases per day will decrease at the same rate that it increased after that flat period. Most likely, and this is the strategy, they will simply be able to get to a point where people are eventually recovering or dying as fast as they're getting infected so that the healthcare system isn't over-burdened.

I totally agree . That makes a lot of sense. You have the most interesting threads. Have a nice day Abandon. Take care!

 

[tangerinegreen555]

No, sorry, it isn't. Hasn't been correct since about 3 weeks ago.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.

ourworldindata.org

It's honestly kind of a dumb question and an appeal to emotion. I'm telling you lockdowns don't work. I showed you numerically how well it worked in NYC which has one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. I presented 4 examples of outbreaks that have been very effectively controlled without such lockdowns. Rome's numbers are quite similar to those of NYC. I'm not placing anyoen anywhere. I'm telling you lockdowns don't work and that your information regarding numbers is just wrong, with solid citations.

I'm not trying to harass you. I am well aware that I am becoming extremely unpopular for stating shit nobody wants to hear. Sorry, not sorry.

Lockdowns don't fucking work. Testing and tracing does.

3 weeks ago absolutely, positively did not put the US ahead of South Korea in per capita testing. Furthermore, many tests are repeated on the same person.

Lockdowns do exactly what they're intended to do. Flatten the curve and you've not proven a thing with apples to oranges bullshit statistics. NY could easily have 2X as many cases as they do now by doing what you say.

And you don't have the guts to admit you'd think of your family first instead of some utterly ridiculous idea you're just babbling on about at this point.

 

[abandonconflict]

3 weeks ago absolutely, positively did not put the US ahead of South Korea in per capita testing.

Kinda splitting hairs here, it's why I said "not exactly". The US is now testing more per day per capita than anyone except Italy (on some days). Why does it matter? It shows the viability of test and trace. The US suddenly jumped to one of the biggest testers without great effort. It shows that it's viable, because your comment was to the effect that we can't do it since we didn't start it as early on as South Korea did. Relatively speaking, we did. Our outbreak is similar per capita to theirs when they started their test and trace program. It's definitely feasible. Maybe not to save NYC, but the rest of the country's economy? Absolutely.

Lockdowns do exactly what they're intended to do. Flatten the curve and you've not proven a thing with apples to oranges bullshit statistics. NY could easily have 2X as many cases as they do now by doing what you say.

So that's your contention. That it would have been worse? You can't prove that for a second. You never will. The fact is, NYC has the fastest case growth rate in the world despite having one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. They have recorded 7468 new cases in the last 24 hours and 6337 new cases in the 24 hour period before that. That's a fact and if I'm causing you personal harm by stating it, it's your problem. It's not apples to oranges, it's lives. It's people becoming sick and it's the biggest threat that my country has faced in generations and I am very willing to take an honest look at it. I have the guts to do that.

7,468 new cases in the last 24 hours, 6,337 in the 24 hours before that. That's an increase of 16%. That is a very unflat curve. I don't want to wait and see what new ungodly number it is tomorrow, but you know what? If it's higher, I'm going to look at today's 7,468 like it was a good day while we just wait for the curve to flatten. NY will easily have 2x as many new cases per day in 5 fucking days if the curve does not flatten now and that is longer than it would take to implement a test and trace program that would expose infection chains.

And you don't have the guts to admit you'd think of your family first instead of some utterly ridiculous idea you're just babbling on about at this point.

You're god damn right my family is more important to me than all of NYC. You're the one who doesn't have the guts to take a good hard fucking look at what is going to fucking happen right in your hometown sooner than you think if you're counting on a lockdown to stop the spread.

Would I die to save NYC, you're god damn right I would. I'm a combat vet. I wouldn't hesitate.

 

[Budley Doright]

No, in the OP I gave 3 and also pointed to Sweden because even with no lockdown or test and trace, they're still experiencing far less case growth than NYC. Someone else foisted Singapore into my argument and I made the mistake of accepting it.

Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, test and trace.

So you were tricked into mentioning Sweden? And yes I agree that it worked for the 3 that caught it “early” and were able to track, isolate and test. And I agree that a lockdown was not required but it’s not because their actions would work in other countries that did not catch it “early”. you also keep mentioning South Korea as having a higher rate of infection than the states at the start. What you have failed to add the majority of those infections were concentrated in one place and relatively easy to trace, track and isolate. The MD’s that have spoke about their success has said it was due to early action and not that lock downs are ineffective when the shit hits the fan so to speak. On the contrary they are saying lifting measures in place now would be catastrophic. Yes they are saying we all should adopt parts of the modeling when the recovery starts. What they are not saying is stop the lockdowns now to initiate the model. This argument, yes that is exactly what it is now when people are called dumb, has gotten ridicules with you shaping the information to somehow suit your argument which is flawed and false, this according to every leading expert on infectious disease.

 

[tangerinegreen555]

Kinda splitting hairs here, it's why I said "not exactly". The US is now testing more per day per capita than anyone except Italy (on some days). Why does it matter? It shows the viability of test and trace. The US suddenly jumped to one of the biggest testers without great effort. It shows that it's viable, because your comment was to the effect that we can't do it since we didn't start it as early on as South Korea did. Relatively speaking, we did. Our outbreak is similar per capita to theirs when they started their test and trace program. It's definitely feasible. Maybe not to save NYC, but the rest of the country's economy? Absolutely.

So that's your contention. That it would have been worse? You can't prove that for a second. You never will. The fact is, NYC has the fastest case growth rate in the world despite having one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. They have recorded 7468 new cases in the last 24 hours and 6337 new cases in the 24 hour period before that. That's a fact and if I'm causing you personal harm by stating it, it's your problem. It's not apples to oranges, it's lives. It's people becoming sick and it's the biggest threat that my country has faced in generations and I am very willing to take an honest look at it. I have the guts to do that.

7,468 new cases in the last 24 hours, 6,337 in the 24 hours before that. That's an increase of 16%. That is a very unflat curve. I don't want to wait and see what new ungodly number it is tomorrow, but you know what? If it's higher, I'm going to look at today's 7,468 like it was a good day while we just wait for the curve to flatten. NY will easily have 2x as many new cases per day in 5 fucking days if the curve does not flatten now and that is longer than it would take to implement a test and trace program that would expose infection chains.

You're god damn right my family is more important to me than all of NYC. You're the one who doesn't have the guts to take a good hard fucking look at what is going to fucking happen right in your hometown sooner than you think if you're counting on a lockdown to stop the spread.

Would I die to save NYC, you're god damn right I would. I'm a combat vet. I wouldn't hesitate.

I don't agree with anything you say on this subject.

Unsubstantiated opinions and distorted statistics shouldn't have a place in policy making.

That's how Trump operates, and he argued behind the scenes making some if the same points you make. Fortunately, Fauci and Brix convinced him otherwise for now.

This isn't over, they'll plenty of time to fuck it up even worse later though.

Your whole thread reminds me of someone in high school speech class who draws the short straw for the debate practice and has to defend a position that totally sucks. Like why we should have continued the Vietnam War for another decade.

Doesn't make sense.

 

[abandonconflict]

So you were tricked into mentioning Sweden?

No, god damned dude, I never said Sweden had implemented an effective test and trace. You wonder why I get annoyed. Read the shit before you comment on it. The example of Sweden shows what case growth rate looks like where the government does nothing. That's useful.

And yes I agree that it worked for the 3 that caught it “early” and were able to track, isolate and test.

South Korea had a higher percentage of its population infected than the US population does now and far higher than Canada and yet test and trace was still highly effective in containing it. I mentioned this several times, including to you.

What you have failed to add the majority of those infections were concentrated in one place and relatively easy to trace, track and isolate.

That can be accounted for, in fact it facilitates the exposure of infection chains. It actually makes it easier that the spread is over a wider area.

The MD’s that have spoke about their success has said it was due to early action and not that lock downs are ineffective when the shit hits the fan so to speak.

fine that's what South Korean doctors have said or not said, while South Korea never implemented such lockdowns or shut down its economy

 

[abandonconflict]

Unsubstantiated opinions and distorted statistics

Which ones were those exactly?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

It must be nice for you having so much money that you can stay home call me a Trump supporter just because I want to get out and work to feed my family and save the fucking world from climate change by solving coral bleaching.

Just kidding Abandon and I figure you are under stress and are concerned about those you love. I do feel very fortunate about my personal circumstances, I'm not rich though and give lot's away. I can only imagine the problems this is causing you and I believe it is motivating your thinking in this area.

 

[abandonconflict]

Just kidding Abandon and I figure you are under stress and are concerned about those you love. I do feel very fortunate about my personal circumstances, I'm not rich though and give lot's away. I can only imagine the problems this is causing you and I believe it is motivating your thinking in this area.

This is not a very strong argument and I'm not convinced that you've proven anything.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This is not a very strong argument and I'm not convinced that you've proven anything.

Goes to motive, the word emotion comes from the latin emovre, meaning to stir, or move as in motivation, our emotions prioritise our thinking. A practitioner also looks at emotion as coloring our perception of reality at best and filtering and distorting our perception, causing delusion at worst. The stronger the emotion, the more profound the subconscious bias, there is but one way out and that way is to train your mind. Emotions start as feelings felt in the body, these "feelings" as we call them in the west can be either attractive, repulsive or neutral and this correlates with basic approach and avoidance behaviors. These feelings are reflected back into the mind where our intellect turns them into the more the complex emotions we experience on a conscious level. Thought and emotion are wound together like the strands of a rope.

Now I gotta get a coffee, wake up and eventually have a sit.

 

[abandonconflict]

i believe in science...and the DR's all say lockdowns save lives....

You also abuse ellipses. Nobody has proven that lockdowns save lives. Also, there's this:

there were more than 8,000 non-coronavirus deaths reported within NYC from March 11-April 13. For comparison, the city health department confirmed there were 5,167 deaths during that same time span last year — meaning there would've been a sudden, nearly 66 percent spike in deaths unrelated to the pandemic year-over-year, which would be unheard of.

NYC Reports Thousands of Additional Deaths, City Toll Tops 10K Despite Signs of Hope

New York’s daily death toll surged back near 800 Tuesday, a day after falling below 700 for the first time in a week, while its coronavirus caseload surpassed 200,000, according to the state’s Department of Health. Still, Gov. Andrew Cuomo pointed to signs of optimism as total hospitalizations...

www.nbcnewyork.com

This indicates that lockdowns kill.

 

[hanimmal]

muh logaraithmic graphs tho

And also, this is complete bullshit, again. 7 days ago in New York recorded about 8 thousand new cases but they also did a revisiion in counting method today. You're buying into doctored graphs.

So you don't accept official stats unless they're trying to reassure you that the logarithmic curve is flattening...

Those deaths were reported and counted.

Except in the countries with the most effective systems. Those doctors and scientists say that testing and contact tracing are so effective that lockdowns aren't necessary to flatten the curve. Also, the regions with the strictest lockdowns in the world, NYC and Rome, have the fastest case growth rates.

It seems now that many of the experts want to try testing and contact tracing as a way to open up the economy.

The Technology That Could Free America From Quarantine

Contact tracing is working in South Korea and Singapore. But it raises privacy issues.

www.theatlantic.com

Or, you know, lockdowns until there's a vaccine and no republic at all while the virus has continued to spread at alarming rates anyway.

All the "Logarithm scale" thing is just the rate of change in the number in this case,

Kinda splitting hairs here, it's why I said "not exactly". The US is now testing more per day per capita than anyone except Italy (on some days). Why does it matter? It shows the viability of test and trace. The US suddenly jumped to one of the biggest testers without great effort. It shows that it's viable, because your comment was to the effect that we can't do it since we didn't start it as early on as South Korea did. Relatively speaking, we did. Our outbreak is similar per capita to theirs when they started their test and trace program. It's definitely feasible. Maybe not to save NYC, but the rest of the country's economy? Absolutely.

So that's your contention. That it would have been worse? You can't prove that for a second. You never will. The fact is, NYC has the fastest case growth rate in the world despite having one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. They have recorded 7468 new cases in the last 24 hours and 6337 new cases in the 24 hour period before that. That's a fact and if I'm causing you personal harm by stating it, it's your problem. It's not apples to oranges, it's lives. It's people becoming sick and it's the biggest threat that my country has faced in generations and I am very willing to take an honest look at it. I have the guts to do that.

7,468 new cases in the last 24 hours, 6,337 in the 24 hours before that. That's an increase of 16%. That is a very unflat curve. I don't want to wait and see what new ungodly number it is tomorrow, but you know what? If it's higher, I'm going to look at today's 7,468 like it was a good day while we just wait for the curve to flatten. NY will easily have 2x as many new cases per day in 5 fucking days if the curve does not flatten now and that is longer than it would take to implement a test and trace program that would expose infection chains.

You're god damn right my family is more important to me than all of NYC. You're the one who doesn't have the guts to take a good hard fucking look at what is going to fucking happen right in your hometown sooner than you think if you're counting on a lockdown to stop the spread.

Would I die to save NYC, you're god damn right I would. I'm a combat vet. I wouldn't hesitate.

The US is testing more per capita than any country but Italy, now you said, what is it per capita that we are testing? Is it enough to even get reliable statistics to extrapolate out to the rest of the population? Who is getting tested, just the sick people? I know in Michigan healthcare workers are not getting tested yet, and the PPE gear is getting tight too in the hospitals. So if there is a wave of people leaving their relatively unexposed (if it wasn't already) homes to go back to work, if there is another wave and the hospitals are not fully restocked, we put them back at risk of having to deal with a bunch of new patients without proper protections. Instead we could wait a couple weeks while the states deal with getting everything their hospitals need while employers figure out how they are going to move forward safely.

This is a fundamental shift in our economy. This is a revolutionary time like not seen since people realized every business has to have a working toilet (I'm just making shit up now, finally cleared a screening and am able to smoke again and am enjoying it) because if nothing else it is the only way to be safe, you must be able to relocate poop from your premises. Now they are going to have to have a way to maintain a clean environment.

Ive been to/worked at enough gyms, movies, restaurants, retail locations to know that these places might need to really rethink how they do things.

It might just end up that it will be on business owners to figure out ways to redo what they were doing and set up their stores/shops in a way that demonstrates they have a relatively clean environment so they can go forward always with the next pandemic in mind and minimize contamination between co-workers.

 

[abandonconflict]

All the "Logarithm scale" thing is just the rate of change in the number in this case

I know what it is. It's bullshit. Yeah, that's my opinion and yes, I know you disagree. That doesn't mean you have to feel offended. It's bullshit.

There were 7,468 new cases in New York in the last 24 hours. The 24 hour period before that saw 6,337 new cases. Follow this for a moment because this is where things turn into bullshit (yes my fucking opinion, GD) if you go to the trouble first of verifying the numbers I just told you, then look for the numbers of new cases from mid march, when it was dozens of new cases per day, you will see that on a logarithmic graph, the growth rate will look exactly the same when it was dozens of new cases as it does now that there are thousands of new cases per day.

I told this to someone else who argued the science with me. Please, assume that I understand the advanced mathematics because I am a highly educated professional who lives by numbers very passionately dedicated to life science. It's not to say I can't be wrong, but you can assume I know what the words mean that I am using.

Now, that case growth in NYC, if you look at it logarithmically, is 16%. It's astronomical. It's anything but flat. If we're EXTREMELY fortunate, it will flatten now. Then, for several days (Hopefully not for weeks) there will be 7500 new cases, every single day. Then, there will be a slight decrease but still thousands of new cases per day, and if we're extremely lucky, it will decrease at the same rate that it increased for the last few weeks. The chances of it being that lucky are dismally low and I could get into that, in fact I'd love to. For now, we can agree that at best, there will be thousands of new cases, everyday, for weeks. That's what "flatten the curve" means. That only applies to a logarithmic graph. Looking at it in a linear graph, it's an increase of total cases by more than 6% in two days, suggesting a doubling time barely better than global average.

What they don't talk about much, but which I assure you is a part of this strategy, is the "pumping of the breaks". Meaning they will try to loosen the lockdowns enough to get some economic output, but then reapply the lockdowns. I'll try to find some more info on that. It's bleak as fuck.

All indications are that we will have to continue like this until there is a vaccine, 16 months from now while the economy is crushed. The point of "flattening the curve" is to not exceed the capacity of the healthcare system. So there's also a baseline which can go up and down based on how we equip that healthcare system. They want to keep that line above the apex of the curve.

If the curve continues to rise at the current rate, just in NYC, it will be 15k new cases per day, in a week (again, a hopeful estimate) and then we will look back on today, when it was just shy of half that as I wish that was the growth rate. That baseline is going to go down everytime a nurse or doctor dies.

It would take less then that amount of time to implement a system like the one in South Korea.