RIU poll Trump VS Clinton
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medicropper07
Well-Known Member
c Mike?
srh88
Well-Known Member
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Yeah, that is the right thing to do. I think it just brings more prestige to the office, Also I would not even let her debate until she releases the 33,000 deleted emails! If she does not present them and take a drug test on stage so we can all see her pee, she should be locked up for treason!
Wow Pie! I never realized how smart you are. Does that happen a lot?
Flaming Pie
Well-Known Member
Well you guys are so convinced that donald does cocaine with zero evidence. I would think you would jump at the opportunity to prove he does with a drug test.Yeah, that is the right thing to do. I think it just brings more prestige to the office, Also I would not even let her debate until she releases the 33,000 deleted emails! If she does not present them and take a drug test on stage so we can all see her pee, she should be locked up for treason!
Wow Pie! I never realized how smart you are. Does that happen a lot?
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
A lot of people might think he is being disingenuous about it knowing that she would never demean herself like that. I have even heard some dum-dums say that Trump is just using projection to deflect accusations (sniff) of him using cocaine.
I am sure we all know how ridiculous that is. Nobody here has ever seen a drug user accuse somebody else of doing drugs. That's unpossible.
I think he should make her take a lie detector test and, instead of a debate, he can ask her questions about her victims for 90 minutes. If that doesn't work, he should waterboard her right on stage - or worse.
choomer
Well-Known Member
Antagonism isn't perpetual
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It's likely not (the opinion of even Nate Silver's 538), and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds. The 538 site also reflected this, as shown below (and still ascending October 15 to now a high 30's% reversion!) But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised tens of thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation. Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days. And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been. This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time. And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation? In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary. How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?
Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth. The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter. Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible. Right... Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.
The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears. Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes. And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won. This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls. We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.
Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog). For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record. These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter. Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders. This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties). And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump. Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that. But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points. Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls. The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person. But this does not negate the data point altogether. Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?
The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote. In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
Justin-case
Well-Known Member
Antagonism isn't perpetual
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It's likely not (the opinion of even Nate Silver's 538), and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds. The 538 site also reflected this, as shown below (and still ascending October 15 to now a high 30's% reversion!) But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised tens of thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation. Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days. And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been. This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time. And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation? In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary. How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?
Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth. The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter. Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible. Right... Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.
The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears. Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes. And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won. This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls. We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.
Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog). For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record. These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter. Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders. This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties). And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump. Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that. But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points. Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls. The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person. But this does not negate the data point altogether. Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?
The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote. In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
Sore loser
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
I read that all. It was exactly how I feel. Especially the bold part! You rock bro!Antagonism isn't perpetual
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It's likely not (the opinion of even Nate Silver's 538), and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds. The 538 site also reflected this, as shown below (and still ascending October 15 to now a high 30's% reversion!) But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised tens of thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation. Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days. And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been. This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time. And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation? In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary. How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?
Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth. The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter. Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible. Right... Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.
The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears. Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes. And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won. This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls. We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.
Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog). For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record. These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter. Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders. This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties). And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump. Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that. But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points. Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls. The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person. But this does not negate the data point altogether. Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?
The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote. In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
Illinois Enema Bandit
Well-Known Member
Here's the attendance at an average Trump rally,only 20,000 people inside this rally 
Now let's look at an average Hillary rally where she is forced to hire known Hollywood child actors to ask scripted questions so she can give scripted responses .
How many people have you seen wearing red bows in their hair lol,makes it easy to spot her super fast .
Now let's look at an average Hillary rally where she is forced to hire known Hollywood child actors to ask scripted questions so she can give scripted responses .
How many people have you seen wearing red bows in their hair lol,makes it easy to spot her super fast .
tangerinegreen555
Well-Known Member
Antagonism isn't perpetual
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It's likely not (the opinion of even Nate Silver's 538), and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds. The 538 site also reflected this, as shown below (and still ascending October 15 to now a high 30's% reversion!) But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised tens of thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation. Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days. And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been. This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time. And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation? In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary. How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?
Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth. The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter. Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible. Right... Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.
The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears. Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes. And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won. This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls. We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.
Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog). For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record. These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter. Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders. This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties). And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump. Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that. But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points. Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls. The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person. But this does not negate the data point altogether. Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?
The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote. In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
tangerinegreen555
Well-Known Member
Here's the attendance at an average Trump rally,only 20,000 people inside this rally
Now let's look at an average Hillary rally where she is forced to hire known Hollywood child actors to ask scripted questions so she can give scripted responses .
How many people have you seen wearing red bows in their hair lol,makes it easy to spot her super fast .
srh88
Well-Known Member
trump rally just looks like a bunch of morons waiting for a wrestling match to start. clintons, while smaller.. looks much more composed and is more in tune with the crowd. taking questions and shit. trump rallies are just him yelling into a mic about hillary clinton for a couple hoursHere's the attendance at an average Trump rally,only 20,000 people inside this rally
Now let's look at an average Hillary rally where she is forced to hire known Hollywood child actors to ask scripted questions so she can give scripted responses .
How many people have you seen wearing red bows in their hair lol,makes it easy to spot her super fast .
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
The size of her crowd is so small because she murders everybody that gets close to her. The Trump Rally was badass bro.Here's the attendance at an average Trump rally,only 20,000 people inside this rally
Now let's look at an average Hillary rally where she is forced to hire known Hollywood child actors to ask scripted questions so she can give scripted responses .
How many people have you seen wearing red bows in their hair lol,makes it easy to spot her super fast .
tangerinegreen555
Well-Known Member
She's now up to 432 murders, they rise from the dead daily to give their accounts.
It's all over the net. I heard it's true. I'm sure I smell sulphur.
Illinois Enema Bandit
Well-Known Member
Fake scripted questions from known Hollywood actors with their own IMB page kinda composed
But she's just some random 15 yr old girl with a cute red bow in her hair reading from a script ,c'mon man you know better ,professional film makers have reviewed that video & highlited how the camera #2 gives the actress her visual cue to " get ready " to read her lines ,that's not composure,its fake .
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
The people were super nice. Check out my African Americans! Aren't they great?
There was another there for a little while but he "left" early. We had to get his mind right.
But it was a real diverse crowd.
These people brought some stamina!
There was another there for a little while but he "left" early. We had to get his mind right.
But it was a real diverse crowd.
These people brought some stamina!
srh88
Well-Known Member
i didnt even watch the video.. its probably some kinda conspiracy type shit thoughFake scripted questions from known Hollywood actors with their own IMB page kinda composed
But she's just some random 15 yr old girl with a cute red bow in her hair reading from a script ,c'mon man you know better ,professional film makers have reviewed that video & highlited how the camera #2 gives the actress her visual cue to " get ready " to read her lines ,that's not composure,its fake .
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
False flag! I saw that girl fake crying over "her friends getting gunned down" at Sandy Hook. I knew right away she was a fake.Fake scripted questions from known Hollywood actors with their own IMB page kinda composed
But she's just some random 15 yr old girl with a cute red bow in her hair reading from a script ,c'mon man you know better ,professional film makers have reviewed that video & highlited how the camera #2 gives the actress her visual cue to " get ready " to read her lines ,that's not composure,its fake .
Good job bro! White Pride! Nation Power!
Unclebaldrick
Well-Known Member
Look at it! Just look at it!