TheMan13
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My Best Guess on Outcomes of Marijuana Initiatives
BY KEITH STROUP ON NOVEMBER 3, 2014ACTIVISM, EDITORIAL, LEGALIZATION, MARIJUANA LAWS, NORML, OPINION, UNCATEGORIZED
This column is being written a couple of days prior to the November 4th election, and will be published on Monday, Nov. 3, election eve. So it only seems appropriate to offer my prognosis on the four statewide marijuana-related voter initiatives, as well as a number of municipal voter initiatives in Michigan and Maine.
Our Opponents Claim the Sky Is Falling
Before setting out on this dangerous endeavor of projecting election results, I should acknowledge the emergence of a seemingly re-energized gang of drug warriors, still willing to exploit fear and misinformation to justify the continued criminal prohibition of marijuana, and to protect their jobs. Our opponents were clearly caught somewhat off-guard by the legalization victories in 2012 in Colorado and Washington, despite their opposition. These smug law-enforcement and drug counseling industry reps had grown accustomed to their ability to shape the public debate over marijuana policy, and to paint anyone who favored the option of legalizing and regulating marijuana as being out of the political mainstream.
But their sleight-of-hand had finally been detected by a majority of Americans, who concluded that marijuana prohibition is a failed and destructive public policy, causing far more harm than the use of marijuana itself. Fear mongering can sometimes work when the audience is ill-informed; but falls flat when people are well-informed.
Over the last several months, we have seen Kevin Sabet with Project Sam, the principal remaining anti-marijuana zealots supporting prohibition, making outrageous claims about the experience with legalization in these first two states, claiming all sorts of unintended consequences. One vocal opponent of the Florida initiative recently referred to the overwhelmingly favorable experience in Colorado as the “Colorado calamity.” The Brookings Institution, in fact, did a comprehensive report on the first six-months of legalization in CO, and found the roll-out of the new law had been overwhelmingly successful. But no one needs to worry Sabet and his ilk with the facts.
One of our opponents in Oregon recently claimed at a public debate that five children in Colorado had died from overdosing on edibles, only to be embarrassed into apologizing and retracting the statement when confronted with demands for the evidence (which, of course, did not exist, since it is impossible to die from an overdose of marijuana, either edible or smoked). While the number of these ideologues making new claims of “reefer madness” is small, they continue to get national media attention with their allegations, and to confuse and dumb-down the public debate.
Florida Amendment 2
The majority of the polling in Florida appears to show that our level of public support for Amendment 2, the medical use initiative, has declined significantly from earlier levels, and the outcome remains in doubt. A number of polls suggest support for the measure is above 50 percent, but insufficient to reach the 60 percent level required for a constitutional amendment. Yet the most recent poll, paid for by United for Care, the official sponsors of the initiative, found 62% support among likely voters, giving cause for some optimism. Should the proposal win more than 50 percent but fail to be approved, the strategy of opting for a constitutional amendment will likely be second-guessed for a long time in Florida (and elsewhere).
Oregon Measure 91
The Oregon legalization proposal, Measure 91, appears headed for victory, although the outcome is expected to be close. The latest polling found 52 percent support and 41% percent opposed. I would guess we might win this initiative with 55 percent approval. If approved, Measure 91 will likely be a model for others states to consider in the next round of elections in 2016.
Alaska Measure 2
The Alaska legalization proposal, Measure 2, appears to have lost the support of a significant number of young voters, and will likely be rejected by a slight majority of the voters; perhaps 52 percent opposed and 48 percent in support. I still hold out hope that those younger voters are still with us, and that they may have been largely missed in the polling in such a vast and low-populated state; but that is probably wishful thinking. The law enforcement establishment appears to have successfully circled the wagons to protect the status quo in Alaska.
Fortunately, Alaskans are already legally permitted to posses up to four ounces of marijuana in their homes, so their law, even if the full legalization initiative is defeated, will still be better than the law in all but two or three states.
DC Initiative 71
The legalization proposal in DC , Initiative 71, appears headed for an overwhelming victory, likely to gain the support of nearly 60 percent of the voters. I will be disappointed if our support is less than 58 percent. Because of the complexities and limitation of the District’s Home Rule charter, it is far from certain when these new proposals will take effect, but the mere act of approving legalization for the nation’s capital will make it far more difficult for Congress to continue to ignore marijuana legalization, as well as stopping the arrests of marijuana smokers in the District, where African Americans were eight times more likely to be arrested than their white counterparts.
Guam
Citizens residing in the US territory Guam will decide on Proposal 14A, the Compassionate Cannabis Use Act. If approved by voters, the measure would “direct the Department of Public Health and Social Services to regulate the use of marijuana as treatment for medical conditions.” The Department would have up to nine months following the law’s passage to provide rules for the territory’s medical marijuana program.
Municipal Initiatives.
Michigan
Municipal initiatives in 11 communities in Michigan (Berkley, Clare, Frankfort, Harrison, Huntington Woods, Lapeer, Mt. Pleasant, Onaway, Port Huron, Pleasant Ridge and Saginaw) will be asked if they support making minor marijuana arrests the lowest law-enforcement priority, effectively decriminalizing marijuana in those towns. Over the last three years, Hazel Park, Oak Park, Lansing, Jackson, Ferndale, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ypsilanti, Flint and Kalamazoo have all previously passed similar marijuana initiatives.
To date, proponents of these municipal initiatives in Michigan, the Safer Michigan Coalition, have established a perfect record; not one Michigan community has rejected similar proposals. And I would anticipate they will continue that perfect record with a string of municipal victories on November 4th.
Maine
Two cities in Maine (Lewiston and South Portland) will have municipal initiatives on the ballot to fully decriminalize up to one ounce of marijuana, similar to one approved by 67 percent of voters in Portland in 2013. Based on the earlier election, one would expect both of these initiatives will also be approved by the voters.
New Mexico
Voters in two counties, Bernalillo and Santa Fe – will decide on non-binding countywide ballot measures asking citizens whether to reduce minor marijuana possession offenses from a criminal misdemeanor to a fine-only, civil offense.
Massachusetts
Voters in eight select districts in the state will decide on non-binding public policy questions asking, “Shall the State Representative from this district be instructed to vote in favor of legislation that would allow the state to regulate and tax marijuana in the same manner as alcohol?”
Now it is time for the voters to speak. If you live in one of these jurisdictions, please exercise your most basic right in a democracy by voting to end marijuana prohibition. If you fail to vote, then you can’t complain if you don’t like the results. Please do not miss this opportunity to help shape the marijuana laws in your jurisdiction.
http://marijuana.com/news/2014/11/my-best-guess-on-outcomes-of-marijuana-initiatives/
BY KEITH STROUP ON NOVEMBER 3, 2014ACTIVISM, EDITORIAL, LEGALIZATION, MARIJUANA LAWS, NORML, OPINION, UNCATEGORIZED
This column is being written a couple of days prior to the November 4th election, and will be published on Monday, Nov. 3, election eve. So it only seems appropriate to offer my prognosis on the four statewide marijuana-related voter initiatives, as well as a number of municipal voter initiatives in Michigan and Maine.
Our Opponents Claim the Sky Is Falling
Before setting out on this dangerous endeavor of projecting election results, I should acknowledge the emergence of a seemingly re-energized gang of drug warriors, still willing to exploit fear and misinformation to justify the continued criminal prohibition of marijuana, and to protect their jobs. Our opponents were clearly caught somewhat off-guard by the legalization victories in 2012 in Colorado and Washington, despite their opposition. These smug law-enforcement and drug counseling industry reps had grown accustomed to their ability to shape the public debate over marijuana policy, and to paint anyone who favored the option of legalizing and regulating marijuana as being out of the political mainstream.
But their sleight-of-hand had finally been detected by a majority of Americans, who concluded that marijuana prohibition is a failed and destructive public policy, causing far more harm than the use of marijuana itself. Fear mongering can sometimes work when the audience is ill-informed; but falls flat when people are well-informed.
Over the last several months, we have seen Kevin Sabet with Project Sam, the principal remaining anti-marijuana zealots supporting prohibition, making outrageous claims about the experience with legalization in these first two states, claiming all sorts of unintended consequences. One vocal opponent of the Florida initiative recently referred to the overwhelmingly favorable experience in Colorado as the “Colorado calamity.” The Brookings Institution, in fact, did a comprehensive report on the first six-months of legalization in CO, and found the roll-out of the new law had been overwhelmingly successful. But no one needs to worry Sabet and his ilk with the facts.
One of our opponents in Oregon recently claimed at a public debate that five children in Colorado had died from overdosing on edibles, only to be embarrassed into apologizing and retracting the statement when confronted with demands for the evidence (which, of course, did not exist, since it is impossible to die from an overdose of marijuana, either edible or smoked). While the number of these ideologues making new claims of “reefer madness” is small, they continue to get national media attention with their allegations, and to confuse and dumb-down the public debate.
Florida Amendment 2
The majority of the polling in Florida appears to show that our level of public support for Amendment 2, the medical use initiative, has declined significantly from earlier levels, and the outcome remains in doubt. A number of polls suggest support for the measure is above 50 percent, but insufficient to reach the 60 percent level required for a constitutional amendment. Yet the most recent poll, paid for by United for Care, the official sponsors of the initiative, found 62% support among likely voters, giving cause for some optimism. Should the proposal win more than 50 percent but fail to be approved, the strategy of opting for a constitutional amendment will likely be second-guessed for a long time in Florida (and elsewhere).
Oregon Measure 91
The Oregon legalization proposal, Measure 91, appears headed for victory, although the outcome is expected to be close. The latest polling found 52 percent support and 41% percent opposed. I would guess we might win this initiative with 55 percent approval. If approved, Measure 91 will likely be a model for others states to consider in the next round of elections in 2016.
Alaska Measure 2
The Alaska legalization proposal, Measure 2, appears to have lost the support of a significant number of young voters, and will likely be rejected by a slight majority of the voters; perhaps 52 percent opposed and 48 percent in support. I still hold out hope that those younger voters are still with us, and that they may have been largely missed in the polling in such a vast and low-populated state; but that is probably wishful thinking. The law enforcement establishment appears to have successfully circled the wagons to protect the status quo in Alaska.
Fortunately, Alaskans are already legally permitted to posses up to four ounces of marijuana in their homes, so their law, even if the full legalization initiative is defeated, will still be better than the law in all but two or three states.
DC Initiative 71
The legalization proposal in DC , Initiative 71, appears headed for an overwhelming victory, likely to gain the support of nearly 60 percent of the voters. I will be disappointed if our support is less than 58 percent. Because of the complexities and limitation of the District’s Home Rule charter, it is far from certain when these new proposals will take effect, but the mere act of approving legalization for the nation’s capital will make it far more difficult for Congress to continue to ignore marijuana legalization, as well as stopping the arrests of marijuana smokers in the District, where African Americans were eight times more likely to be arrested than their white counterparts.
Guam
Citizens residing in the US territory Guam will decide on Proposal 14A, the Compassionate Cannabis Use Act. If approved by voters, the measure would “direct the Department of Public Health and Social Services to regulate the use of marijuana as treatment for medical conditions.” The Department would have up to nine months following the law’s passage to provide rules for the territory’s medical marijuana program.
Municipal Initiatives.
Michigan
Municipal initiatives in 11 communities in Michigan (Berkley, Clare, Frankfort, Harrison, Huntington Woods, Lapeer, Mt. Pleasant, Onaway, Port Huron, Pleasant Ridge and Saginaw) will be asked if they support making minor marijuana arrests the lowest law-enforcement priority, effectively decriminalizing marijuana in those towns. Over the last three years, Hazel Park, Oak Park, Lansing, Jackson, Ferndale, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Ypsilanti, Flint and Kalamazoo have all previously passed similar marijuana initiatives.
To date, proponents of these municipal initiatives in Michigan, the Safer Michigan Coalition, have established a perfect record; not one Michigan community has rejected similar proposals. And I would anticipate they will continue that perfect record with a string of municipal victories on November 4th.
Maine
Two cities in Maine (Lewiston and South Portland) will have municipal initiatives on the ballot to fully decriminalize up to one ounce of marijuana, similar to one approved by 67 percent of voters in Portland in 2013. Based on the earlier election, one would expect both of these initiatives will also be approved by the voters.
New Mexico
Voters in two counties, Bernalillo and Santa Fe – will decide on non-binding countywide ballot measures asking citizens whether to reduce minor marijuana possession offenses from a criminal misdemeanor to a fine-only, civil offense.
Massachusetts
Voters in eight select districts in the state will decide on non-binding public policy questions asking, “Shall the State Representative from this district be instructed to vote in favor of legislation that would allow the state to regulate and tax marijuana in the same manner as alcohol?”
Now it is time for the voters to speak. If you live in one of these jurisdictions, please exercise your most basic right in a democracy by voting to end marijuana prohibition. If you fail to vote, then you can’t complain if you don’t like the results. Please do not miss this opportunity to help shape the marijuana laws in your jurisdiction.
http://marijuana.com/news/2014/11/my-best-guess-on-outcomes-of-marijuana-initiatives/
