DIY-HP-LED
Well-Known Member
They are speaking of the UK or alpha variant, as it is now known, delta is far more contagious.
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Why Infectious Coronavirus Variant Worse Than Deadly Variant: Expert (businessinsider.com)
Jan 6, 2021, 9:41 AM
A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain
SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that has spread across the globe like wildfire and killed 1.85 million people worldwide, has mutated, and experts believe that the new variant known as B.1.1.7 is much more infectious.
Scientists blame this variant for the surging numbers of people infected with the virus in the UK, which has seen hospitals filling up with COVID-19 patients, forcing the UK into lockdown. UK government advisors said on December 18 that the UK variant was estimated to have a 71% higher growth rate than other variants. The growth rate is how quickly the number of infections changes daily.
Early studies led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggest the variant is unlikely to cause more serious illness, and experts have said vaccines should still work against it. But according to Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School for Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the ability to spread more easily could make the variant more dangerous than a deadlier strain would be.
Kucharski, a scientific advisor to the UK government, tweeted on December 28 that a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
In an interview with Business Insider on Monday, Kucharski explained his math and described what he thinks needs to happen next.
Dr. Catherine Schuster-Bruce: What were you trying to say with your tweet?
Adam Kucharski: I think for me the key message is getting people to understand how much more of a problem an increase in transmission is, especially when we're so close to being able to vaccinate a whole bunch of people.
Can you explain the maths?
A general principle for every disease out there is a variant that is 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
I think the point is, a small risk of death with a very large number of people infected, means more deaths than a slightly higher risk of death amongst a much smaller outbreak. A really severe disease that one person gets won't necessarily have as much impact as a 'sometimes-severe' disease that a huge number of people get. It's a trade-off between how many people get it, and what the impact is.
Given where we are with this coronavirus and the fact we've got vaccines, the question is around what the impact is going to be in the window before vaccines become useful. In that situation, higher transmission is, in general, going to be a much bigger problem than the equivalent change in intensity — even if it's not more severe, you end up having more impact than a virus that's spreading more slowly.
The same principles would apply in the US and the UK?
Yeah, because essentially they're referring to the underlying epidemic that's happening, which in reality, we just measure a glimpse of with testing.
Would an infectious-disease expert or genomics expert agree with you?
Well, I hope so. I think it depends. I mean, there's obviously uncertainty around the exact values here, but I think we've got a clear surge in spread in the UK. So even if it turns out to be something else, you've got that increased transmission, which is an enormous problem when you've got a vaccine on the horizon.
Even if it turns out that some component of it was behavior and another component was changes in the virus, that's still an increase in transmission, which is going to be an accelerating problem to deal with.
I think increasingly there's consensus that something unusual is going on here. If it's genuinely 50% more transmissible, we've got a real problem.
...
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Why Infectious Coronavirus Variant Worse Than Deadly Variant: Expert (businessinsider.com)
Jan 6, 2021, 9:41 AM
A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain
- The novel coronavirus responsible for the pandemic has mutated. One variant, called B.1.1.7, is more infectious and has forced the UK into lockdown.
- The variant has also been discovered in multiple US states and in other countries.
- The variant does not appear to be more deadly, and experts believe existing vaccines should work against it.
- But Adam Kucharski, an assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said that, in general, a variant that's 50% more transmissible is a bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
- "A really severe disease that one person gets won't necessarily have as much impact as a 'sometimes-severe' disease that a huge number of people get," he told Business Insider.
SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that has spread across the globe like wildfire and killed 1.85 million people worldwide, has mutated, and experts believe that the new variant known as B.1.1.7 is much more infectious.
Scientists blame this variant for the surging numbers of people infected with the virus in the UK, which has seen hospitals filling up with COVID-19 patients, forcing the UK into lockdown. UK government advisors said on December 18 that the UK variant was estimated to have a 71% higher growth rate than other variants. The growth rate is how quickly the number of infections changes daily.
Early studies led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggest the variant is unlikely to cause more serious illness, and experts have said vaccines should still work against it. But according to Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School for Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the ability to spread more easily could make the variant more dangerous than a deadlier strain would be.
Kucharski, a scientific advisor to the UK government, tweeted on December 28 that a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
In an interview with Business Insider on Monday, Kucharski explained his math and described what he thinks needs to happen next.
Dr. Catherine Schuster-Bruce: What were you trying to say with your tweet?
Adam Kucharski: I think for me the key message is getting people to understand how much more of a problem an increase in transmission is, especially when we're so close to being able to vaccinate a whole bunch of people.
Can you explain the maths?
A general principle for every disease out there is a variant that is 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
I think the point is, a small risk of death with a very large number of people infected, means more deaths than a slightly higher risk of death amongst a much smaller outbreak. A really severe disease that one person gets won't necessarily have as much impact as a 'sometimes-severe' disease that a huge number of people get. It's a trade-off between how many people get it, and what the impact is.
Given where we are with this coronavirus and the fact we've got vaccines, the question is around what the impact is going to be in the window before vaccines become useful. In that situation, higher transmission is, in general, going to be a much bigger problem than the equivalent change in intensity — even if it's not more severe, you end up having more impact than a virus that's spreading more slowly.
The same principles would apply in the US and the UK?
Yeah, because essentially they're referring to the underlying epidemic that's happening, which in reality, we just measure a glimpse of with testing.
Would an infectious-disease expert or genomics expert agree with you?
Well, I hope so. I think it depends. I mean, there's obviously uncertainty around the exact values here, but I think we've got a clear surge in spread in the UK. So even if it turns out to be something else, you've got that increased transmission, which is an enormous problem when you've got a vaccine on the horizon.
Even if it turns out that some component of it was behavior and another component was changes in the virus, that's still an increase in transmission, which is going to be an accelerating problem to deal with.
I think increasingly there's consensus that something unusual is going on here. If it's genuinely 50% more transmissible, we've got a real problem.
...
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