Colorado
Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010. Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning. On the other hand, the only statewide GOP office holder, Attorney General John Suthers, has said he will run for reelection and not for the Senate, so there is no clear opponent, either. You can't beat somebody with nobody, so Bennet might actually get a weak and unknown opponent. So far, the only challenger is an unknown, young, black, Aurora City Councilman, Ryan Frazier (R).
Connecticut
Incumbent Chris Dodd is a five-term senator from a blue state so under normal conditions it shouldn't be hard for him to become a six-term senator. However, he is also chairman of the Senate banking committee and as such is partially responsible for the various bailouts going on. These could be his Achilles heel. A potential Republican opponent could attack the bailouts and indirectly Dodd. Also, Dodd got a low-interest loan from a bank he oversees. Republicans say he is corrupt. Former representative Rob Simmons (R) is going to run against Dodd, but Simmons was ousted in 2006 and his failure as an incumbent to hold his own House seat does not bode well for a statewide run. Early polls show Dodd in trouble but Simmons may have a competitive primary against the former ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley and perhaps others.
Florida
Sen. Mel Martinez is retiring at the end of his term. After some hesitation, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is running for the job and is the favorite. However, there is going to be a nasty primary between former state House majority leader Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL). Conservatives will back Rubio, forcing Crist to tack to the right during the primary, which is Aug. 24. This means even if Crist wins, he has little time to tack back to the center. For Democrats, the race is wide open with the only announced candidate so far being Kendrick Meek, who is not well known in the state. If it ends up Crist vs. Meek, Crist will win handily.
Illinois
After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement. Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis (D) and Bobby Kennedy's son, Chris Kennedy (D), have already announced they are running. Rep. Mark Kirk is running for the Republican nomination, but since open Senate seats are pretty rare, he could draw a primary challenger. If the race ends up being Giannoulis vs. Kirk, Giannoulis is favored since (1) he has already won statewide election and Kirk has not, and (2) Illinois is a deep blue state so any Democrat not involved in a scandal (which is a bit of a rarity in Illinois) is the automatic favorite.
Kentucky
Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. While he was a great pitcher, he was hardly a great senator. His age and lack of fundraising drove him from the 2010 race, so the Republican candidate is probably going to be Trey Grayson, the Kentucky Secretary of State. The Democrats have two contenders, Lt.Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, and Attorney General Jack Conway. If the two of them bloody each other in a primary, Grayson might coast to an easy victory. But both are battle-hardened politicians and either one could give Greyson a run for his money.
Louisiana
David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a customer of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. Perhaps once. Perhaps twice. Perhaps 1000 times. Bet on the latter. Vitter might even face a primary challenger from porn star Stormy Daniels. Even though she has no political background, she is guaranteed lots of press coverage and photos. Who might the Democrats run? Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu might be a good choice--were it not for the fact that his sister, Mary, is the other senator. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) is thinking about running.
Missouri
Four-term senator Kit Bond (R) has decided to call it quits. He will be 77 at the end of another term and he's not interested, so we have an open seat in a key swing state. The other Missouri senator is a Democrat, Claire McCaskill. Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the likely Republican nominee at this point. Robin Carnahan (D), the current Missouri Secretary of State and a member of a Missouri dynasty is running and is the favorite. Father Mel was governor. Mother Jean was senator. Brother Russ is a congressman. Needless to say, the Carnahan name is pretty well known in Missouri. A serious primary challenge seems unlikely
Nevada
Although the gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, defeating the powerful majority leader will be tough. For one thing, Nevada swung strongly into the Democratic column in 2008, as Democratic registration went up by 113,000 in 2008 and Obama won the state by a large margin. For another, Reid's position gives him the ability to bring home the bacon. Also working in his favor is that the Republicans have a very thin bench in Nevada. The governor has been involved in one scandal after another and the lieutenant governor is under indictment. The only serious Republican left is former representative Jon Porter, but if he couldn't even win his own district, it could be tough statewide. Reid is taking no chances, though. He raised $7.7 million in the first quarter of 2009.
New Hampshire
Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was going to become Secretary of Commerce and then he changed his mind. He abstained on the stimulus bill (which was de facto the same as voting against cloture) but took a lot of heat for it from NH Republicans. Then he withdrew and said he wouldn't run in 2010 either, creating an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) has already said he is running and is unlikely to be challenged by any other Democrat. The state is increasingly blue in the past two cycles and the GOP's bench there is very thin. But the Republicans lucked out when Kelly Ayotte, the state's Attorney General said she would run.
North Carolina
Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan (D) at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. The Democrats have plenty of contenders here, but the field hasn't sorted itself out yet. Fortunately for Burr, the strongest Democrat, Attorney General Roy Cooper, has ruled out a run.
Ohio
Sen. George Voinovich is retiring after two terms in the Senate, creating an open seat in a swing state. This will one of the most bitterly fought races in 2010. Former congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is the likely nominee for the Republicans. He was also director of the budget during the Bush administration, which will be a handicap as the Democrats will accuse him of causing the recession. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is running as is Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, a terrible campaigner, is nevertheless the choice of the establishment. Brunner is an insurgent, but polls show them fairly close.
Safe Democrats in Alphabetical Order by State
Arkansas
Incumbe Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). State Senate minority leader Kim Hendren (R) announced a run against her but promptly referred to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as "that Jew" which got him a lot of free publicity but probably few votes even among antisemites because Lincoln isn't Jewish and she's his opponent, not Schumer.
California
Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). If Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) had challenged her, she might have had to sweat a bit. But since he said he is retiring from public office in 2010, she is a shoo-in for reelection.
Delaware
Gov. Ruth Minner (D-DE) has appointed Ted Kaufman, a long-time aide to Sen. Joe Biden, to fill Biden's seat. Kaufman is not expected to run in 2010 leaving the seat open. It is likely that Biden's son, Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq, will run for it and if he does, he will be the odds-on favorite in this heavily Democratic state unless Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)) runs, in which case it will be a real barnburner.
Hawaii
Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 but has said he plans to run for a ninth term. He will probably win easily unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) decides to run, in which case it could be a contest. Still, Republicans are scarce on the ground in Hawaii and in an Inouye-Lingle matchup, Inouye would be the favorite. Even if Inouye retires, the Democrats are likely to hold the seat as their bench is deep here.
Indiana
Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. However, this color does not appear to apply to the Bayh family. Evan has been elected to statewide office five times (once as secretary of state, twice as governor, and twice as senator). Furthermore, his father was a three-term senator. If Gov. Mitch Daniels runs for the Senate, Bayh would at least have to campaign, but with $11 million in the bank before even starting, that wouldn't be hard to do. Since the $11 million is no secret, Daniels will think long and hard about where he is going to get that kind of money from before entering the race.
Maryland
Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to, and since she likes her job, the Republicans can't count on a retirement, either.
New York
The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer, but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some statewide exposure to run for some other office later. Remember, this is the guy who ran the DSCC for two cycles and knocked off 14 sitting Republicans. He did so primarily due to his ability to raise mountains of money for other people. If he could do that for a mayor in far-off Alaska, imagine what he can do for himself. Schumer is invincible.
New York
Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton when she became Secretary of State. She has only one term of experience in the House, so she will be a target. However, in 2008 she got 68% of the vote in a somewhat (R+3) Republican district and she has a 100% rating from the NRA, so many Republicans clearly find her acceptable. She is also a prodigious fundraiser. By 2010 she will be well known in the state. Nevertheless, several representatives were/are mulling a primary challenge. Rep. Steve Israel pulled out when Rahm Emanuel told him that if he ran, the President would personally campaign against him. Representatives Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy might yet enter the fray, though. The Republicans best hope is that Rudy Giuliani enters the race, although his many marriages and divorces and other baggage will not be a plus upstate and maybe not even in NYC. Former governor George Pataki is a possible, but unlikely candidate. All in all, if Emanuel can scare away all primary challengers, Gillibrand is probably safe.
North Dakota
While it may seem odd for North Dakota, a red state, to keep electing Democrats to the Senate, both senators are Democrats. If Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) decides to run, Dorgan may have to work hard to keep his job. Otherwise, Dorgan gets a fourth term, no questions asked. But there is a decent chance Hoeven won't risk his shoo-in job as governor for a race he could lose.
Oregon
Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated. He probably won't even be tested very hard.
Pennsylvania
Arlen Specter's switch back to the Democrats took everyone by surprise. He was elected to the Senate five times as a Republican in a blue state. As a Democrat, it will be even easier, especially if former representative Pat Toomey, who is very conservative, is the Republican nominee, as expected. Rather than risk losing his job, Specter switched parties. While Democrats on the left have been grumbling about Specter being a DINO (Democrat In Name Only), the party establishment supports his switch. However, he will first have to get past a primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a retired Vice-Admiral in the Navy.
Vermont
Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010. The only Republican who has even an outside chance of taking him down is Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), but Douglas is up for reelection in 2010. Like Jodi Rell in Connecticut, why would have give up an almost sure thing to be reelected as governor for a real longshot at a Senate seat?
Washington
Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. While the Republicans will surely mount a serious challenge to her, she would be the clear favorite for a fourth term even if the Republicans had a deep bench here, which they don't.
Wisconsin
What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. He should cruise to an easy reelection. It is doubtful that the Republicans will even be able to recruit a serious candidate against him.
Safe Republicans in Alphabetical Order by State
Alabama
Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He is also sitting on a huge pile of cash ($13 million) and won praise in his state for opposing the Wall St. bailout. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again no matter which sacrificial lamb the Democrats come up with.
Alaska
Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. Her only threat in red Alaska is if Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) decides that she needs some Washington experience to add to her resume prior to her potential 2012 run for President. While Palin was attacked for lack of experience during her Vice Presidential run in 2008, she does have experience in beating Murkowskis in primaries, having beaten Lisa's father, Frank in the 2006 Republican primary. However, Palin has said she is not running for the Senate. If she sticks with that, Murkowski is safe.
Arizona
A bit out of the blue, John McCain now has to pay more attention to what was until now an easy reelection campaign. He is going to be challenged in a primary by Minutemen founder Chris Simcox and attacked for proposing to make illegals citizens. If he tries to out-Tancredo Simcox, he will antagonize the state's large Latino population, which will hurt him in the general election. If he goes back to supporting the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill (which he cowrote), he will infuriate the right wing of his own party. Still, with former governor Janet Napolitano (D) now safely relocated to Washington, the Democrats don't have an A-list candidate to run against McCain.
Georgia
Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010. The Democrats are unlikely to even come up with a first-tier challenger.
Idaho
Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. He will cruise to reelection in 2010--if he runs. He was treated for prostate cancer in 2000 and again in 2005 and might decide to retire, but even if he does retire, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain the seat.
Iowa
Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable and recently negotiated a good committee assignment for the 112th Congress, so he has no intention of retiring.
Kansas
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius had run, she might have won, but since she opted for Secretary of Health and Human Services, the winner of the Republican primary will be elected senator. Two House Republicans, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, will battle it out for the Republican nomination.
Oklahoma
Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He's safe unless Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) decides to challenge him, in which case he might have to work hard to keep his job. However, Henry has said he won't run. But people have been known to change their minds. Without Henry as their nominee, the Democrats have no chance at all here. If Coburn retires, all bets are off.
South Carolina
Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe. The Democrats don't have any plausible candidates at all. He might even end up running unopposed.
South Dakota
John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats are really going to gun for him this time to get revenge. One potential candidate is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the state's sole representative. She has a proven track record of winning statewide by large margins and would be a serious challenger if she decides to go for a promotion to the Senate. But she may decide she would rather be governor, like her grandfather, or wait until Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retires. She's only 38, just got married, and is expecting her first child. Chances are she will decline to run in 2010 knowing she has plenty of time later on.
Utah
Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He won by 40 points last time. He'll be a U.S. senator until the cows come home.
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