Weed in Canada has ZERO value

ComputerSaysNo said:

Assuming these are Canadian dollars. That means not even USD 3 per gram for high-quality weed. It boggles the mind.

What's the labour intensity to harvest 1g in a "small-scale" operation (let's say 200g/month)? Let's say you work 30 hours/month for 3 months, and then 10 additional hours for harvesting/bagging etc., that's 100 hours for 600g in my example, 6 g/work hour, so at the cited price you don't even make USD 15 per hour; it's probably even less because my estimates for material and labour cost are likely too low.

Instrinsic value of cannabis apparently not very high (OK, not surprising).

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If you're not from Canada you need to remember we can get multi-thousand plant licenses for the cost of a postage stamp with no real build out or security requirements/costs.

Less than half-lb/mo is hardly an 'operation' of any size. Basically just a hobby tent in a basement.

You need to be doing at minimum a couple lbs/mo to be able to use any economy of scale that can work with sub $1k/lbs

Basically instead of renting out your basement suite to some college kids to help out your mortgage you just put some plants down there instead.

If you grow in soil the time spent is negligible. I feed my plants one time when I flip to flower and then feed the dirt again when I harvest, that's it. Everything else is just watering which can be automated fairly simply. Trimming is about a pound per day, maybe 2 days on some of the nastier foxtailing cuts.

The "$100/zip" people are talking about isn't "high-quality" either, just an acceptable level of smoke, nothing crazy.

Cycad said:

Here in Mexico where 10% sinsemilla is selling for $10/ounce at the half-pound buy, I don't see any market at all except in added-value products such as edibles.

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There's never a market in the major drug-producing countries. It's always somewhere else.
Pure cocaine in, say, columbia is maybe $2 per g, and sells for 30 times that (or more) in the US or EU.

DancesWithWorms said:

If you're not from Canada you need to remember we can get multi-thousand plant licenses for the cost of a postage stamp with no real build out or security requirements/costs.
Less than half-lb/mo is hardly an 'operation' of any size. Basically just a hobby tent in a basement.

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Yes, in Canada the situation is basically as it should be. There's nothing special about the plant, it's about as easy to grow as basil, only come harvest time there's some work involved; on the other hand it stores quite well, much better than most other fresh crops.

So there's no surprise that an operation of any size comparable to traditional agriculture is necessary to make ends meet.

Canada is now practically "Mexico w/o the Sinaloa cartel" with regards to weed. I don't see why prices should rebound ever, unless taxes are raised, outside of niche markets for exotic premium flowers.

That's the exact paradox, exotic/top-shelf/zaza/piff whatever under no circumstances can be grown and sold on a massive scale. It will always be expensive and fairly difficult to source.

Once the cuts start circulating the market just moves onto the next hype thing. $250/zips of Mac1 quickly become $99/ounces while harvests of White Truffle/Rootbeer/Khalifa Mints etc still fetch 300+/zip in the exact same market even though the flower itself isn't really objectively any 'better'.

DancesWithWorms said:

That's the exact paradox, exotic/top-shelf/zaza/piff whatever under no circumstances can be grown and sold on a massive scale. It will always be expensive and fairly difficult to source.

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It's not a "paradox" at all. "Exotic" by definition means that it's not available in bulk. There needs to be a demand for "exotic", however, and that demand is not driven by "quality", but by hype and marketing and myths.

Why would any "exotic" flower be significantly more expensive to grow than Skunk #1? It doesn't work that way with Cannabis unless I'm missing something quite not so obvious here.

Look at the wine industry: expensive wines are not objectively better than anything in the generally accepted price range. There have been more than enough blind tests that prove that over and over again. There's no quality-driven market for premium wines, it's purely fueled by bullshit and people with too much money. Cannabis might follow.

The prices will recover because we've reached a point where more people are getting out of the game than getting in.

Indoor AA-AAA prices in legal states like California are getting up to that 3-4x price multiplier over what is available here in BC, that's just historically too high for recent years. Once the border opens up more product will start going south again, dropping california's already low prices while boosting pricing in Canada. It has always been a pressure relief valve on pricing that just happened to not be available due to COVID.

If the market for quads stays under $1400-$1500 CAD a LOT of those growers won't be here this time next year without some serious cutting of corners.

We still have to get through the ACMPR review this year which could change the landscape drastically almost overnight.

It's a liquid, transparent, mostly supply-meets-demand driven market w/o a lot of external risk since it is mostly grown in controlled environments (so no floods or droughts or pests wiping out crops, like with the vanilla from Madagascar suddenly more expensive for years).

It makes sense to look at the intrinsic value of the product, plus some mark-up, and that will be the long-term price. What you cited are external factors, such as COVID, and the fact that in California the market is not as liberal as it is in Canada (tighter restrictions on growers etc, I'm not an expert).

It's still an illegal market though, this isn't basil or tomatoes.

The pricing has to reflect that in some way at least.

I was talking about an actual legal market. In my region it is quite illegal, and the pricing very much reflects the risks involved.

OK, the conversation and pricing quoted here is all in regards to the illegal black market in Canada if that wasn't clear to somebody not from here.

The legal market in Canada can't come anywhere near these prices, good weed is still $5k+/lb at retail pricing and can never compete with the black market based on how our excise taxes are set up. There is a pricing floor for any legal producer that cannot be passed.

DancesWithWorms said:

The prices will recover because we've reached a point where more people are getting out of the game than getting in.

Indoor AA-AAA prices in legal states like California are getting up to that 3-4x price multiplier over what is available here in BC, that's just historically too high for recent years. Once the border opens up more product will start going south again, dropping california's already low prices while boosting pricing in Canada. It has always been a pressure relief valve on pricing that just happened to not be available due to COVID.

If the market for quads stays under $1400-$1500 CAD a LOT of those growers won't be here this time next year without some serious cutting of corners.

We still have to get through the ACMPR review this year which could change the landscape drastically almost overnight.

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I agree with everything you're saying... spot on. I've heard of so many people shutting down for good and this is only going to help the market bounce back quicker when the borders fully open IMO. I think grower who stick it out will be rewarded once things go back to normal. From what I've seen it's always been a roller coaster ride regarding canadian wholesale prices... this time does feel a little different but it will bounce back as it always does. Moving average over the last 2 decades though has been trending slowly downwards.

Whats your take on the possible changes to the ACMPR? I guess no one really knows. I was following some of the panel discussions a few months ago, then nothing, no news, no updates. I know this october it's up for review. Wonder if they will release any changes quickly or drag it out.

Do you think past october easily getting a 250 plant lisence is going to be a thing of the past?

2klude said:

Whats your take on the possible changes to the ACMPR? I guess no one really knows. I was following some of the panel discussions a few months ago, then nothing, no news, no updates. I know this october it's up for review. Wonder if they will release any changes quickly or drag it out.

Do you think past october easily getting a 250 plant lisence is going to be a thing of the past?

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Not expecting many changes at all to the current ACMPR setup beyond what they already floated in that proposal earlier in the year, just maybe some increased scrutiny on people they have some kind of evidence suggesting they may be producing illicit product.

Health Canada's hands are pretty tied and I can't see them coming up with the money for boots on the ground type enforcement/site checks when they have so many problems just getting paper renewals and applications processed in a timely manner.

The only real way to shut it down would be to go after the doctors/nurse practicioners that are just writing recs in an office all day long for people they've never met. The problem is that despite the name Health Canada has very little oversight in regards to medical professionals in Canada, all doctors/nurses are governed by individual provincial boards rather than at the national level.

I think going forward large plant count licences will be even cheaper, there are just more and more 3rd party services competing with each other for clients pushing prices down. My email inbox and cellphone get blown up constantly with renewal/application discounts and text messages to my phone.

DancesWithWorms said:

OK, the conversation and pricing quoted here is all in regards to the illegal black market in Canada if that wasn't clear to somebody not from here.

The legal market in Canada can't come anywhere near these prices, good weed is still $5k+/lb at retail pricing and can never compete with the black market based on how our excise taxes are set up. There is a pricing floor for any legal producer that cannot be passed.

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This is very interesting, and it makes sense.

However, there is a big difference between being purely in a black market inside a liberalized legal market, and being under the risk of criminal persecution where no legal market even exists.

Assuming weed gets liberalized and taxed where I live, the tax will be put in a spot where you will be able to sell legally at the current black market price; and a lot of customers will feel better about buying legally for various reasons. Selling on the black market will then be mostly an issue of tax evasion and money laundering -- no longer an issue of possibly going to jail for even participating in the market.

The threshold for police raids is a lot higher when it comes to interrupting black market operations as opposed to stopping a clearly illegal activity. If growing is "generally legal", no judge will issue warrants to raid out a "possibly illegal operation", unless it's a clear cut case. I'm guessing it would take a lot of heat off all the small-time growers, who could still have a nice side-gig and have fun with it.

Overall i'm not too worried about the market until the retail prices absolutely tank, that's when you can get into the death spiral of people racing to the bottom just to cover a light bill.

Cannabis is quite unique in that it's so easy to create a quality product that you can directly sell for just about anyone.

You don't have to distill anything, no harmful chemicals involved, no need to set up a cigarette factory or a lab. Just grow, and harvest, and sell.

So as long as the government puts a price floor on weed via taxation, as you've already mentioned, the black market can simply slightly undercut, and you're golden; as long as you're content with it being a small-scale operation.

DancesWithWorms said:

Not expecting many changes at all to the current ACMPR setup beyond what they already floated in that proposal earlier in the year, just maybe some increased scrutiny on people they have some kind of evidence suggesting they may be producing illicit product.

Health Canada's hands are pretty tied and I can't see them coming up with the money for boots on the ground type enforcement/site checks when they have so many problems just getting paper renewals and applications processed in a timely manner.

The only real way to shut it down would be to go after the doctors/nurse practicioners that are just writing recs in an office all day long for people they've never met. The problem is that despite the name Health Canada has very little oversight in regards to medical professionals in Canada, all doctors/nurses are governed by individual provincial boards rather than at the national level.

I think going forward large plant count licences will be even cheaper, there are just more and more 3rd party services competing with each other for clients pushing prices down. My email inbox and cellphone get blown up constantly with renewal/application discounts and text messages to my phone.

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I like your outlook at things and I hope it works out that way. I'd hate to have to scale everything down or increase my veg times to comply to my plant count.

I've noticed a increase in the spam emails I'm getting regarding renewals. I've also notice some "2 for 1" deals and overall prices are about half what they were a year ago for ACMPR licensing. It's a double edge sword though imo. On one hand it's super easy to be licensed and on the other so much product flooding the market cause everyone is legally growing. Only way around it all is to grow the best possible buds and stand out among the heard.

DancesWithWorms said:

My email inbox and cellphone get blown up constantly with renewal/application discounts and text messages to my phone

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2klude said:

I've noticed a increase in the spam emails I'm getting regarding renewals. I've also notice some "2 for 1" deals and overall prices are about half what they were a year ago for ACMPR licensing.

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I've had my med permit for 6 or 7 years now and never once got an email from my docs about it. You guys must be paying somebody to do yours I gather. I've never applied to HC for a grow permit either and just want the document to wave around in court should I ever get busted. I have one for 12g/day and the wife for 6 so if we did get legal we could grow something like 92 indoor plants adding in the 4 rec plants. This winter I expect to have around half that many at one time but most will be clones as I'll be busy doing some breeding and making lots of fem and regular seeds. Will be flowering lots of bud too buy maybe a dozen plants at once if that.

I'm developing a bit of a following with a few friends and their friends for my cocobudder and now DMSO CBD lotions for pain so may have to go a little commercial but just enough to cover expenses and a little for labour. Mostly just making them for myself and sharing.

OldMedUser said:

I've had my med permit for 6 or 7 years now and never once got an email from my docs about it. You guys must be paying somebody to do yours I gather. I've never applied to HC for a grow permit either and just want the document to wave around in court should I ever get busted. I have one for 12g/day and the wife for 6 so if we did get legal we could grow something like 92 indoor plants adding in the 4 rec plants.

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How does that work in detail over there?

You have a permit for a certain amount per day, and then there's the general permission to grow up to 4 plants in Canada.

And now you could apply for another permit, medical in this case, and that would allow up to 92 plants? Where does the number 92 come from? And which applications do you have to file where, and how much does that cost?

What about commercial licensing? If you have that, and you grow stuff, do you have to deliver it to specific places or can you also sell it yourself if you pay the taxes?

If there's a website where one can get this information I would be interested; mostly out of curiosity ofc, I'm not in Canada.

In the midwest here it’s gotten weird. A quality 1g vape cart at first (3 years ago) might run you $70 +15%. Now you can buy them for $20 out the door lots of places.. There are farms literally everywhere in rural areas and half the old buildings in most towns are full of herb. It’s nuts! But flower hasn’t come down in price all that much. Sure you can get a seedy oz for $50 but quality is still over $200. There’s NO WAY all this is staying here the county I live in alone has way more than enough ganja to supply the state. And we have 77 counties.

ComputerSaysNo said:

How does that work in detail over there?

You have a permit for a certain amount per day, and then there's the general permission to grow up to 4 plants in Canada.

And now you could apply for another permit, medical in this case, and that would allow up to 92 plants? Where does the number 92 come from? And which applications do you have to file where, and how much does that cost?

What about commercial licensing? If you have that, and you grow stuff, do you have to deliver it to specific places or can you also sell it yourself if you pay the taxes?

If there's a website where one can get this information I would be interested; mostly out of curiosity ofc, I'm not in Canada.

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Right off the bat the ACMPR, Access to Cannabis for Medical Purposes Regulations, is basically a permission slip from your doctor to use pot for whatever medical condition you believe pot is best for you and he/she agrees. It only lasts for a year then needs renewal. When he fills out the form he puts in how many grams/day you are allowed. I tried for over 10 years to get a doc up here in northern Alberta to sign for me and eventually while out in BC moving my mom found a doc there to sign on my 2nd visit. He put in 8g/day after my explaining I was after hi-CBD pot mainly. He was happy he didn't have to go thru a 20 min talk about how to use it or any of the usual BS. I could have taught him a lot. No cost to me and he just billed my provincial medical for 2 unspecified visits. The next year I went to see my doc here just to get a slip that confirmed I suffered from arthritis and chronic depression to take back to BC as that doc there now worked at a pot clinic and they needed something like that. $275/yr to use their services but they were only going to charge me $150 as I was broke and on disability at the time.

But my doc, who denied me years earlier, decided to sign for me and has since tho now left to work in BC so I need a new doc to sign. I may travel there to get him to do it if he still will. He like most docs we get up here are imported from South Africa or elsewhere tho SA seems to be where most come from. He bumped my dosage up to 12g/day when I asked and a couple years later signed for my wife at 6g/day when she was diagnosed with liver tumours which have shrunk or disappeared since she started taking RSO a couple years ago. just light doses but enough to knock most stoners out if they took her dose right off the bat. My prostate has shrunk by 30% since I started taking it a few months ago and my PSA dropped by almost 2 full points too so no damned cancer for now!

Once you have the docs paper you can apply to Health Canada for a permit to grow your own meds. 5 plants indoors and 2 outdoors for every g/day you are allowed. If you live down closer to the US border you can grow huge pot trees outside and get a huge crop but up here around 56N you need autos to have the plants finish before the snow flies and you don't get lots from them but the gov't doesn't make allowances for that.

I've been growing here for 20 years and never needed anyone's permission so don't apply to grow. I don't want to be on any gov't hit list if they decide to crack down on growers.

There are a lot of clinics that will sign for you and charge based on how many grams/day you ask for and you can ask for lots if you got the cash which is totally unethical and illegal but HC lets them get away with it. Nobody needs a permit to grow 500 plants to supply their personal medical needs so they sell their excess to the black market or their buddies at BM prices.. I could have paid $400 for the med permit and another $400 for the grow permit years ago when I couldn't get a doc to legitimately sign but felt it was wrong so didn't out of principle rightly or wrongly. I don't sell pot as a rule and give away quite a bit to a half dozen friends. Somebody wants a bunch then I might take a donation to my electric bill but still at less than half the price of street pot or 'legal' stuff.

None of that is for commercial use and there are all sorts of hoops to jump thru to get into that. I'm not interested so don't know lots about it but it is easier than it was a couple years ago. To sell it you have to go thru your provincial regulatory board after it has passed tests as safe. Not cheap.

As you've read in this thread there's not a lot of money in it any more. Huge glut on the market especially with the border shut down as a lot of our pot went south when it used to all come from the south. I used to run down to Bellingham, WA to score a few lbs from my bro-in-law and run it up to make double my money selling it to friends. Mexican brick weed back then.

Really, really interesting! Thanks for the long explanation, much appreciated.

OldMedUser said:

5 plants indoors and 2 outdoors for every g/day you are allowed.

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This is sooo random. The plant counts are silly in the first place, but these "limits" make no sense at all. 1 plant can give you 50g/month even if everything that could goes wrong.

If you live down closer to the US border you can grow huge pot trees outside and get a huge crop but up here around 56N you need autos to have the plants finish before the snow flies and you don't get lots from them but the gov't doesn't make allowances for that.

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Yeah, I mean they probably know how stupid the plant count limitation is anyway, but I guess counting plants is the only thing the lawmakers deemed practical; it gets very complicated beyond that.

You could probably grow something like Early Queen in your climate outdoors. Have you tried?

I've been growing here for 20 years and never needed anyone's permission so don't apply to grow. I don't want to be on any gov't hit list if they decide to crack down on growers.

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That's quite clever. So that is what you meant when you said "you will have some docs to wave around in court". You would be allowed to grow x plants with your medication allowance, just couldn't be bothered to apply formally for the grow permit.

There are a lot of clinics that will sign for you and charge based on how many grams/day you ask for and you can ask for lots if you got the cash which is totally unethical and illegal but HC lets them get away with it. Nobody needs a permit to grow 500 plants to supply their personal medical needs so they sell their excess to the black market or their buddies at BM prices..

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That is outrageous, but expected. But as I said above, those plant limits are silly, and since they even issue "personal" permits to grow more than a couple of plants at all, it should be obvious to anybody that the stuff must be for the black market.