Our Next Housing Bubble Is Here..

S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
why this is so bad:

  1. taking away a person's way to work and/or work livelihood (job loss)
  2. once repo'd it's hard to impossible to get financed again
  3. putting strain on public transit infrastructure that's already strained and broken
  4. more homeless on the street

A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/?utm_term=.f2dba26f5b83

Banks no longer use collection agencies; you are placed on repo list and rogue tow trucks use technology to scan tags in large parking areas. Once they receive a 'hit', you're hooked up immediately. If you want your car back, you pay back payments AND exorbitant 'tow fee'..now, if you HAD the payments wouldn't you have paid them? what makes a bank think that you're going to come up with cash when you couldn't the previous 3 months? Well, they assume you will go to family.

What's going to happen to all these cars once they're taken back? Banks don't wait for the account to go 5-6 months arrears, 2-3 months and YOU'RE on the list.

It's a Trumpy World, now..'C' for Colored (thanks to @Unclebaldrick for the clarification)

https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-report-trump-housing-discrimination-2017-2
 
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CannaBruh

CannaBruh

Well-Known Member
Debt based economy is NOT Trump's doing.

I was interested in some metrics and charts and shit, but got political "gotcha" thread titled. Good play.

"catchy title" enter thread, zero evidence leading into "why this is so bad..."

terribly written paper..
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
CannaBruh said:
Debt based economy is NOT Trump's doing.

I was interested in some metrics and charts and shit, but got political "gotcha" thread titled. Good play.

"catchy title" enter thread, zero evidence leading into "why this is so bad..."

terribly written paper..
Click to expand...
made you click-it:wink:

i actually gave you 4 solid reasons. the 5th deals with cars flooding the market, similar to housing.

perhaps you should click on the link for further metrics in article?

and yes..Trump is responsible.
 
CannaBruh

CannaBruh

Well-Known Member
I read the article tho and this is what it says, literally;

"
Overall, many borrowers have strong credit scores and repay their loans on time, but defaults have been high among “subprime” borrowers with credit scores under 620 on an 850-point scale.

The share of auto loan borrowers who were three months behind on their payments peaked at 5.3 percent in late 2010. The share is slightly lower now — 4.5 percent — because the total number of borrowers has risen so much in the past several years"
Overall, many borrowers have strong credit scores and repay their loans on time, but defaults have been high among “subprime” borrowers with credit scores under 620 on an 850-point scale.

The share of auto loan borrowers who were three months behind on their payments peaked at 5.3 percent in late 2010. The share is slightly lower now — 4.5 percent — because the total number of borrowers has risen so much in the past several years"

coupled with;

"While defaults on auto loans are a red flag, they are unlikely to take down the entire financial system as mortgages did in the lead-up to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. "


Basically, sub-prime lenders are behind in payments more so than credible borrowers.
Today's numbers, while higher overall are less in % behind than those that were behind by % leading up to the financial crisis. "slightly lower" a whole 1 point lower, off of 5.3% that's how many percentage down .... (it's more than 1)

More borrowers overall today in numbers, more overall behind in payments but overall LESS in %, so if you chart/trend this, what's it look like?

The article reads like a big bank advert for NOT taking a sub-prime loan. That's it.
 
CannaBruh

CannaBruh

Well-Known Member
The article you open citing states that overall % is DOWN relative to financial crisis of the past.

It points out that suspect borrowers (sub-prime) are still having trouble paying off their loans (nothing new)

If you want to point to crisis point to the many trillions in debt the US is operating under, might have something there.

Auto loan sub-prime marker/indicator/flag, meh.
 
Unclebaldrick

Unclebaldrick

Well-Known Member
CannaBruh said:
The article you open citing states that overall % is DOWN relative to financial crisis of the past.

It points out that suspect borrowers (sub-prime) are still having trouble paying off their loans (nothing new)

If you want to point to crisis point to the many trillions in debt the US is operating under, might have something there.

Auto loan sub-prime marker/indicator/flag, meh.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it is really fucked up that Trimp is running a record deficit during a good economy. I mean, running an expansionary budget during a strong recession is one thing, but there is no excuse for what he is doing now. If the economy ever turns down (which, I am sure you know, indicators suggest soon) we will have no way to stimulate the economy.

Considering the fact that you consider the national debt as important, I am sure you would agree that what he is doing is highly irresponsible and he should not be re-elected.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
CannaBruh said:
Debt based economy is NOT Trump's doing.

I was interested in some metrics and charts and shit, but got political "gotcha" thread titled. Good play.

"catchy title" enter thread, zero evidence leading into "why this is so bad..."

terribly written paper..
Click to expand...
We've had months and months of companies missing forecasts and bad economic news yet the markets are relatively calm with low volatility and relatively stable market.

The following link is to an article that is behind a paywall so I'll post some parts of it.
Are markets somehow ‘broken’?

https://www.ft.com/content/af043692-8d4c-11e9-a24d-b42f641eca37

The Vix index, a popular gauge of Wall Street fear that measures the volatility implied by option prices, has nudged higher since May, and so has its equivalent for the US Treasury market, the Move index. But compared with the deteriorating backdrop they look remarkably low. Here they are charted against the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which measures divergences in forecasts and newspaper mentions of uncertainty.



The Move index is volatility in the treasury market, VIX is stock market volatility and the uncertainty index reflects the amount of bad news, whether in new reporting or when a company revises forecasts downward. The article mentions other indicators of an impending recession, such as yield curve inversion and a jump in junk bond prices. Yet, no sign of stocks pricing in these factors. As you can see, the market is placid while the news is not. So, what gives?

The author's point is that something is happening behind the scenes that has caused a break from decades-old patterns of market behavior. The conclusion in this article is that investor herding and reluctance of key market makers to take action has caused this break with long term trends. He's basically saying that a very sharp and painful correction is looming. Of course he doesn't say when and he hedges his words enough that Pad could have written it but that's the message.
 
tangerinegreen555

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
why this is so bad:

  1. taking away a person's way to work and/or work livelihood (job loss)
  2. once repo'd it's hard to impossible to get financed again
  3. putting strain on public transit infrastructure that's already strained and broken
  4. more homeless on the street

A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/?utm_term=.f2dba26f5b83

Banks no longer use collection agencies; you are placed on repo list and rogue tow trucks use technology to scan tags in large parking areas. Once they receive a 'hit', you're hooked up immediately. If you want your car back, you pay back payments AND exorbitant 'tow fee'..now, if you HAD the payments wouldn't you have paid them? what makes a bank think that you're going to come up with cash when you couldn't the previous 3 months? Well, they assume you will go to family.

What's going to happen to all these cars once they're taken back? Banks don't wait for the account to go 5-6 months arrears, 2-3 months and YOU'RE on the list.

It's a Trumpy World, now..'C' for Colored (thanks to @Unclebaldrick for the clarification)

https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-report-trump-housing-discrimination-2017-2
Click to expand...
If they weren't getting juiced so hard, they might not be behind.

Carvana's top interest rate is a legal 28%.

I know because I was looking at a car on there a couple months ago and filled out the credit app.

Came back 17.9%. I called them and asked WTF. Girl said 17.9% isn't bad, they go up to 28%.

I told them they're fucking nuts. I got a loan from Ford around 6%. I had two 0.0% loans from Ford when the last actual financial crisis hit.

When they're all offering 0.0% again, you'll know we're in a financial crisis.

Sorry you lost your car. You hang out with truck drivers though, right? You're up on their urination habits and all, you can always hit the road and see the country. Breaker, breaker we got a picture taker.
Have fun.
 
hellmutt bones

hellmutt bones

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
made you click-it:wink:

i actually gave you 4 solid reasons. the 5th deals with cars flooding the market, similar to housing.

perhaps you should click on the link for further metrics in article?

and yes..Trump is responsible.
Click to expand...
I blame Obama. Fucking Obama...bongsmilie
 
hanimmal

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
weird.
Click to expand...
https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/seo-analysis-tools

I was making a stupid joke about not trusting links within links on some of these websites out there, yours wasn't bad or anything you posted so it really didn't make much sense.

Sorry about that!

Unclebaldrick said:
Yeah, it is really fucked up that Trimp is running a record deficit during a good economy. I mean, running an expansionary budget during a strong recession is one thing, but there is no excuse for what he is doing now. If the economy ever turns down (which, I am sure you know, indicators suggest soon) we will have no way to stimulate the economy.

Considering the fact that you consider the national debt as important, I am sure you would agree that what he is doing is highly irresponsible and he should not be re-elected.
Click to expand...
Yeah everything was lined up so well too for whoever took over after Obama, shame Trump has to yank on every thread in the economy he can playing tough guy negotiator and then when it all goes to hell and people scramble to just get back to normal, he can walk away saying look I fixed this.
 
Budley Doright

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555 said:
If they weren't getting juiced so hard, they might not be behind.

Carvana's top interest rate is a legal 28%.

I know because I was looking at a car on there a couple months ago and filled out the credit app.

Came back 17.9%. I called them and asked WTF. Girl said 17.9% isn't bad, they go up to 28%.

I told them they're fucking nuts. I got a loan from Ford around 6%. I had two 0.0% loans from Ford when the last actual financial crisis hit.

When they're all offering 0.0% again, you'll know we're in a financial crisis.

Sorry you lost your car. You hang out with truck drivers though, right? You're up on their urination habits and all, you can always hit the road and see the country. Breaker, breaker we got a picture taker.
Have fun.
Click to expand...
There are a few that are offering “0” up here but nothing is ever 0. The zero percent thing is a joke really and just means you get to pay the interest that is the higher sell price at 0 percent, for 6 years lol. The zero percent is driven by people that really can’t afford a new car but can’t come up with the cash for the smarter choice of a cheaper good used car IMO.
 
tangerinegreen555

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
There are a few that are offering “0” up here but nothing is ever 0. The zero percent thing is a joke really and just means you get to pay the interest that is the higher sell price at 0 percent, for 6 years lol. The zero percent is driven by people that really can’t afford a new car but can’t come up with the cash for the smarter choice of a cheaper good used car IMO.
Click to expand...
Yeah, you either got a discount or 0.0%.

I think it was around $1500-2500 at the time maybe?

Most people can't just shell out $25-30K and the ones who can tend to not want to spend saved money when they can use somebody else's.
 
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