Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.

abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
And we appreciate the effort but you seem upset that people are discussing their fears? Why wouldn’t they, it’s a scary fucking thing. Seems you’ve peppered in a few personal fears as well.
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It's not ALL ABOUT the fears though. That does unnerve me. Science is so easily dismissed but memes and sensational headlines aren't. I'm citing actual numbers and people still want to talk about 41 million dead Americans. It's kind of a circus.
 
doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
That reproductive rate and the fact that it spreads while incubating before symptoms have manifest make it extremely likely this will catch.

We're starting to see better epidemiological data as well. There are 40,894 confirmed currently infected (likely significantly higher if it were possible to count nonconfirmed) of which 7,375 are in intensive care units (critical cases) which is 18%. This number is hard to rely on due to the difficulty in confirming all cases. There are likely thousands (if not tens of thousands) of unreported mild cases. So we have a maximum number. We know that the percentage of cases that become critical is not more than 18%.

The next piece of valuable epidemiological data we have going forward is similar. There are 48,181 confirmed cases that had outcomes. Of those, 3,053 were fatalities. This is about 6%, so we know that the fatality rate is at a maximum 6% but again, there were likely many more unconfirmed cases which were mild and unreported which resulted in recovery.
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OP says it's highly likely were all gonna catch this COVID-19 and then posts that it has a confirmed fatality rate of 6%.....well there are 327mil americans. that's = 19mil dead....and there is no reason to panic? Seriously?:o
 
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Lucky Luke

Lucky Luke

Well-Known Member
Budley Doright said:
Why? The way to stop it is to contain it. Why let it loose? I do believe we need to stop all travel for a few weeks...... will it stop? Doubt it but slowing it down would be a good thing so as to not over tax the healthcare systems.
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Its already loose. Its hurting economies and lively hoods. Just let it loose and let it cull those it will.
 
Lucky Luke

Lucky Luke

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Sometimes you say extremely stupid shit.
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You say that because im more of a realist. What will be will be. We cannot live forever and not many are prone to die from it- immunity is the reward.

Keep in mind we have a decent public health system and my island state has a population of about 500k.
 
Lucky Luke

Lucky Luke

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
what would 6% of the Australian population be?....
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Death rate will be 1 to 1.5%. Not 6. Thats over dramatisation JJ. But yes allot of old and frail people will die and allot of kids will then be naturally immune.

May be higher than 1.5 in America amongst the poor.
 
Lucky Luke

Lucky Luke

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I'm going to let the jokers vs the panickers have it out.
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You got ur self in that spot not me. I'm a realist with a morbid aussie sense of humour.

JJ all the data says around 2% in China- which has a shit health system compared to Australia. Authorities here are expecting a death toll of 1 to 1.5 %. You would expect it higher in America due to your health system and due to when a antivirus is available (say 18 months?) we will get it free or cheap as and u lot will probably have to pay a tad for it.
 
doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
The current numbers as posted by abandon below.... shows a fatality rate of 6%

abandonconflict said:
That reproductive rate and the fact that it spreads while incubating before symptoms have manifest make it extremely likely this will catch.

We're starting to see better epidemiological data as well. There are 40,894 confirmed currently infected (likely significantly higher if it were possible to count nonconfirmed) of which 7,375 are in intensive care units (critical cases) which is 18%. This number is hard to rely on due to the difficulty in confirming all cases. There are likely thousands (if not tens of thousands) of unreported mild cases. So we have a maximum number. We know that the percentage of cases that become critical is not more than 18%.

The next piece of valuable epidemiological data we have going forward is similar. There are 48,181 confirmed cases that had outcomes. Of those, 3,053 were fatalities. This is about 6%, so we know that the fatality rate is at a maximum 6% but again, there were likely many more unconfirmed cases which were mild and unreported which resulted in recovery.
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The current numbers as posted by abandon above^ shows a fatality rate of 6%
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Lucky Luke said:
You got ur self in that spot not me. I'm a realist with a morbid aussie sense of humour.

JJ all the data says around 2% in China- which has a shit health system compared to Australia. Authorities here are expecting a death toll of 1 to 1.5 %. You would expect it higher in America due to your health system and due to when a antivirus is available (say 18 months?) we will get it free or cheap as and u lot will probably have to pay a tad for it.
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The Jama study out of China says that 19% of cases are critical and of those, a whopping 49% are fatal. That's a 9% case fatality rate. I agree that it's probably very close to 2% but the data doesn't conclude this because there isn't enough data.

The data would seem to conclude a 6% fatality rate based on the percentage of confirmed cases (with any outcome) having that outcome. We know that possibly a majority of cases go unreported and therefore unconfirmed because they are mild.

For the record, I correctly called you a joker. You're cynical and you seem to (although not actually) think a culling would be good. You meme and constantly make light of this with no real data cited. You're closer to reality than the panickers, but I called you a joker because you indeed do more joking about it than anything. It's part of my habit of describing things correctly, based on reality, not to offend. With that said, I'll give you credit for having thick skin about it.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
OP says it's highly likely were all gonna catch this COVID-19 and then posts that it has a confirmed fatality rate of 6%.....well there are 327mil americans. that's = 19mil dead....and there is no reason to panic? Seriously?:o
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No, that's incorrect. I said that is the max possible based on confirmed cases vs outcomes. I also said that there are very likely many more unconfirmed cases, possibly even a majority. I have consistently also maintained that I do not trust the numbers reported by the CCP. I also categorically to refuse to refer to the virus by the name it was given by the WHO. It is 2019nCoV or the Wuhan coronavirus.
 
doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
The Jama study out of China says that 19% of cases are critical and of those, a whopping 49% are fatal. That's a 9% case fatality rate. I agree that it's probably very close to 2% but the data doesn't conclude this because there isn't enough data.

The data would seem to conclude a 6% fatality rate based on the percentage of confirmed cases (with any outcome) having that outcome. We know that possibly a majority of cases go unreported and therefore unconfirmed because they are mild.

For the record, I correctly called you a joker. You're cynical and you seem to (although not actually) think a culling would be good. You meme and constantly make light of this with no real data cited. You're closer to reality than the panickers, but I called you a joker because you indeed do more joking about it than anything. It's part of my habit of describing things correctly, based on reality, not to offend. With that said, I'll give you credit for having thick skin about it.
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6% fatality rate in america = 19mil dead....that's more than all the soldiers killed in WWII by all sides...
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
6% fatality rate in america = 19mil dead....that's more than all the soldiers killed in WWII by all sides...
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Even the 1918 flu epidemic only infected a third to half of the population, for one thing. For another thing, I have corrected you several times now by pointing out that many cases are never reported and therefore not confirmed, maybe even most cases.
 
Joedank

Joedank

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
OP says it's highly likely were all gonna catch this COVID-19 and then posts that it has a confirmed fatality rate of 6%.....well there are 327mil americans. that's = 19mil dead....and there is no reason to panic? Seriously?:o
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I agree . So when should we start to panic ? How do we keep watering our plants while panicking?!?
 
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