Lockdowns don't work.

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
We have to find the right balance of continuing to have a civil society and social distancing. By all means, cancel big events like concerts and parades, close locations where masses gather and only allow a certain number of people into buildings at a time. Not letting peopel sunbath on the fucking beach is making things worse, not better. What should have happened was early travel bans. Remarkably, that's what the administration tried to do, but nobody wanted to listen because that's what he's always wanted to do and peopel are just automatically inclined to disregard Trump.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
so more people will die and that's a sacrifice your willing to make, i get it. but I'm no Kamikaze, I'm not willing to die for dear leader.
No. That's not it at all. In fact, death rates in general are not decreasing as a result of the lockdowns. Also, that comment was kinda racist.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
The articles don't match your conclusions.

You'll have to explain yourself better. The Swedish government isn't convinced their measures are enough and stand ready to lock down if rates get high. South Korea has a very thorough tracing system in place as does Hong Kong.
None of your ideas work without better testing in place and teams ready to identify hot spots.

From your posts, am I right to read that you believe China is still seeding infections where their people are still able to travel to?
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
IDK about herd immunity....
Coronavirus reinfection fears grow as cured patients test positive with possibly ‘reactivated’ virus
About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
IDK about herd immunity....
Coronavirus reinfection fears grow as cured patients test positive with possibly ‘reactivated’ virus
About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.
No mention is made of their symptoms or severity.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
IDK about herd immunity....
Coronavirus reinfection fears grow as cured patients test positive with possibly ‘reactivated’ virus
About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.
Also, right there in the article, you should have read where they flattened their curve without closing businesses. An expensive testing system was mentioned but I doubt it was nearly as expensive as lockdowns or giant economic stim plans.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
exactly......too early to tell. Lets be safe and error on the side of saving lives...
But lockdowns don't save lives. You can't even really prove it slows the spread. I mean, I do think it has some effect on the spread, but it depends on how you look at the cases and even by doing nothing at all, you'd see a parabola on the graph, meaning it would go up and then come down on its own anyway. All I'm saying is the cost is too high.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
We have to find the right balance of continuing to have a civil society and social distancing. By all means, cancel big events like concerts and parades, close locations where masses gather and only allow a certain number of people into buildings at a time. Not letting peopel sunbath on the fucking beach is making things worse, not better. What should have happened was early travel bans. Remarkably, that's what the administration tried to do, but nobody wanted to listen because that's what he's always wanted to do and peopel are just automatically inclined to disregard Trump.
Yeah poor trump......
Coronavirus: Trump retweets threat to fire Dr Fauci who said US response cost lives

Dr Anthony Fauci said fewer people would have died if Trump administration had announced isolation measures earlier
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Yeah poor trump......
Coronavirus: Trump retweets threat to fire Dr Fauci who said US response cost lives

Dr Anthony Fauci said fewer people would have died if Trump administration had announced isolation measures earlier
Clownshoes. So first you make a kamikaze remark, then I'm a Trump supporter just because I disagree with you. Then you cite an article from a rag owned by Jack Ma. You need to tighten up your shot group today. I agree with Fauci. We should have isolated sooner. We don't need to completely lock everything down everywhere. At this point, New York has no choice but to be locked down because it just can't function, but it definitely didn't isolate until 3 weeks ago really.

Isolation is what I suggest, not lockdowns.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
Clownshoes. So first you make a kamikaze remark, then I'm a Trump supporter just because I disagree with you. Then you cite an article from a rag owned by Jack Ma. You need to tighten up your shot group today. I agree with Fauci. We should have isolated sooner. We don't need to completely lock everything down everywhere. At this point, New York has no choice but to be locked down because it just can't function, but it definitely didn't isolate until 3 weeks ago really.

Isolation is what I suggest, not lockdowns.
You, who blames the Chinese for everything but the price of cheese, is calling me a racist....that's a laugh.
 

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
I think the argument can't be settled here until it's 2022 and we look back on it .

Too much misinformation, disinformation, educated guessing, not enough data, no peer reviewed studies, and not enough corraborated precise information about what the virus can/will do.

All the models are based on educated guessing on data they're not sure about. And they need widespread testing to get a true handle on how many people really had it.

I'm not going anywhere without a mask and then only when I have to. It's a temporary lock down to try to save lives.

I have no problem with it as a short term measure. We'll recover. It's not the first catastrophe we've ever faced.
 

doublejj

Well-Known Member
I think the argument can't be settled here until it's 2022 and we look back on it .

Too much misinformation, disinformation, educated guessing, not enough data, no peer reviewed studies, and not enough corraborated precise information about what the virus can/will do.

All the models are based on educated guessing on data they're not sure about. And they need widespread testing to get a true handle on how many people really had it.

I'm not going anywhere without a mask and then only when I have to. It's a temporary lock down to try to save lives.

I have no problem with it as a short term measure. We'll recover. It's not the first catastrophe we've ever faced.
some people can't stand the 'inconvenience' of trying to help others...
 

Unclebaldrick

Well-Known Member
I think the argument can't be settled here until it's 2022 and we look back on it .

Too much misinformation, disinformation, educated guessing, not enough data, no peer reviewed studies, and not enough corraborated precise information about what the virus can/will do.

All the models are based on educated guessing on data they're not sure about. And they need widespread testing to get a true handle on how many people really had it.

I'm not going anywhere without a mask and then only when I have to. It's a temporary lock down to try to save lives.

I have no problem with it as a short term measure. We'll recover. It's not the first catastrophe we've ever faced.
Yes, there are many questions. But something like a viral spread is perfect for simulations. And those simulations have been done over a wide range of variables.

The "wash over us" policy is certainly one of those policies that has been thoroughly tested and yet nearly every country has taken the choice of a lockdown anyway. I guess it all comes down to how you prioritize the outcomes.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
First, I don't know how many of us are already immune. We may already be past the point where it can spread or we might soon be there. A blood test to identify people who have been exposed and developed immunity is needed to know when herd immunity is sufficient. That said, we don't know how long immunity will last.

Lockdown was necessary in New York, Seattle and New Orleans. Not to save lives but to keep the medical system from being overloaded with very sick people. I don't know where you are coming from when you say "lockdowns don't work". They do work to cut the number of sick people in hospitals. The purpose of lockdowns is to allow capacity to treat Covid patients and other sick people who would die if the medical system is swamped.

Lockdowns do cut the rates of new cases from developing in hot spots. Once rates in all parts of the country are low, if as predicted, 95% are still susceptible, then we'll need to put controls in place. These would be wide scale testing, monitor for new cases, isolate them and well as all who came into contact with the infection. Also, trace back to find asymptomatic carriers or other new sources of the infection. This is close to what S. Korea is doing.

A vaccine is the end game. Developing the vaccine is an event driven schedule and not one that can be predicted. From what I've read, it's going to be years before a vaccine is ready for deployment.
That's not at all what South Korea has done though. In South Korea you can go to a restaurant. Colleges are open for class. Employment hasn't suffered drastically. I agree that those 3 cities are emergencies but they got that way because they did not screen visitors when they knew there was a pandemic. New Orleans had tens of thousands of international travelers for Mardi Gras. New York had international travelers coming in at full speed until 3 weeks ago. I'm honestly not that informed about Seattle so I won't comment on it. Now that they are disaster sites, they can't function and therefore have no choice but to lock down. Even so, it can't really be proven numerically that the curve is flattening due to the lockdowns and small businesses being shut and people being on house arrest.
 

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Yes, there are many questions. But something like a viral spread is perfect for simulations. And those simulations have been done over a wide range of variables.

The "wash over us" policy is certainly one of those policies that has been thoroughly tested and yet nearly every country has taken the choice of a lockdown anyway. I guess it all comes down to how you prioritize the outcomes.
The countries that did not, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have been more successful. Businesses have remained open in those places.
 
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