That's essentially the grand point I was trying to raise. But I can be comfortable saying Zhong Guo Cheapos will give 12khrs anyway (+/- 2khrs) . So I presume that is a safe estimate for any DIY rig.
But I was fairly sure someone like SDS or Supra have been running theirs for that long. Then again, many COBs seem to get changed like tires in F1-racing around here. Everyone is trying to sit on the bleeding edge
Solid State ...Service Life ,is absolutely dependant from
cooling ...
Whether we're referring to LED chips (thus COBs ) ,MOSFETs or any other solid state device ...
For COBs there's another factor determining service life ,of lesser importance than cooling ...
Every LES is made of silicone of some sort (there are two different types mainly used ,at the moment *)
which is a semi-permeable material to gases and water vapour ..
Depending on LES material,thickness and surface area and of course the environment variables ,
the service life of a COB may be decreased ,even if efficient cooling is utilised ..
But that is a very complex issue to be analysed ,for the moment being ...
* ( phenyl & methyl silicones .For more info google " LED encapsulating silicone material " )
Cheers.