Japan NIKKEI 225

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NoDrama

Well-Known Member
tokeprep said:
There's plenty of interest in treasuries without the Fed's action (indeed, despite it, since their goal is to lower interest rates).
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LOL no there isn't , The fed buys more than half of all treasury issues. China is a net seller, US Households are net sellers, Mutual funds are net sellers, Banks do not buy treasuries.

Foreign treasury investment has been going downhill for the last 5 years.

The problem with spouting things you learned in college from a book is that often that book is out of date and is just plain WRONG.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/who-is-buying-u-s-treasuries/
 
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tokeprep

Well-Known Member
NoDrama said:
LOL no there isn't , The fed buys more than half of all treasury issues. China is a net seller, US Households are net sellers, Mutual funds are net sellers, Banks do not buy treasuries.

Foreign treasury investment has been going downhill for the last 5 years.

The problem with spouting things you learned in college from a book is that often that book is out of date and is just plain WRONG.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/who-is-buying-u-s-treasuries/
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The auctions are oversubscribed by several times the amount the treasury is actually selling. How peculiar that you would attempt to attack me for using old information and then refer to an article that's almost two years old.
 
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NoDrama

Well-Known Member
tokeprep said:
The auctions are oversubscribed by several times the amount the treasury is actually selling. How peculiar that you would attempt to attack me for using old information and then refer to an article that's almost two years old.
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Snore!

The Fed buys $45 Billion per month. This is not news for most of us.

Do the math.

more than 50% of all treasuries are soaked up by the fed.

The Fed CANNOT buy treasuries from the US Treasury.

According to Bloomberg , the Fed is buying 90% of all NEW issues.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/treasury-scarcity-to-grow-as-fed-buys-90-of-new-bonds.html

You can bitch about that being 6 months old, things haven't changed since 2008 doofus.

Tell us again how the fed holds no US Debt and isn't even a player in the game. Then explain how much a 10 year US treasury will yield you.
 
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tokeprep

Well-Known Member
NoDrama said:
Snore!

The Fed buys $45 Billion per month. This is not news for most of us.

Do the math.

more than 50% of all treasuries are soaked up by the fed.

The Fed CANNOT buy treasuries from the US Treasury.

According to Bloomberg , the Fed is buying 90% of all NEW issues.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-03/treasury-scarcity-to-grow-as-fed-buys-90-of-new-bonds.html

You can bitch about that being 6 months old, things haven't changed since 2008 doofus.

Tell us again how the fed holds no US Debt and isn't even a player in the game. Then explain how much a 10 year US treasury will yield you.
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The article you just linked to describes an auction that was four times oversubscribed. The Fed could have bought nothing and they would have had no problem selling.

Even after a huge buying spree the Fed only holds 10% of the US debt. That they're now buying an amount almost equivalent to the treasuries being issued is a function of the much smaller deficit and significantly lower borrowing, which is a positive thing.
 
OGEvilgenius

OGEvilgenius

Well-Known Member
tokeprep said:
Healthy markets go up and down all the time.
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Here are the Five Biggest One Day Losses for the Dow Jones Industry Average (as a %):

1. 10/19/1987 -> -22.61% (Stock Market Crash of 1987)

2. 10/28/1929 -> -12.82%

3. 10/29/1929 -> -11.73%

4. 11/06/1929 -> -9.92%

5. 12/18/1899 -> -8.72%


http://www.davemanuel.com/2008/09/21/the-biggest-one-day-gains-and-losses-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average/

Totally healthy of course. You might want to note those dates.
 
Balzac89

Balzac89

Undercover Mod
When I started the thread the Nikkei was just shy of 16,000 points on May 23rd. It is now at 13,200.

A drop of 17.5% in less than two weeks. That is quite the correction.
 
S

silasraven

Well-Known Member
Balzac89 said:
7 percent in one day is outstanding. It is probably a good sign right?
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good sign to buy jap stocks, their cars arnt that great and they are nothing like china when it comes to space tech( they have their own station for crying out loud). golds worth allot there but not as much as russian gold.
 
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tokeprep

Well-Known Member
Balzac89 said:
When I started the thread the Nikkei was just shy of 16,000 points on May 23rd. It is now at 13,200.

A drop of 17.5% in less than two weeks. That is quite the correction.
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The Nikkei was below 11,000 points on the first day of the year. In six months it shot up above 15,000--a gain of almost 50%. It's still up 25% for the year.

The S&P 500 is up less than 15% in the same period. The fact that the Nikkei is correcting, given that significant run, shouldn't be surprising. Since a year ago the Nikkei was below 9,000 points, that's even more true.
 
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NoDrama

Well-Known Member
tokeprep said:
The article you just linked to describes an auction that was four times oversubscribed. The Fed could have bought nothing and they would have had no problem selling.

Even after a huge buying spree the Fed only holds 10% of the US debt. That they're now buying an amount almost equivalent to the treasuries being issued is a function of the much smaller deficit and significantly lower borrowing, which is a positive thing.
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I think you missed the previous post.

i.e. When the treasury auctions off bonds, the fed isn't ever buying any of them, that would be illegal. It can be oversubscribed by 100000000000000000%, but the fed would not be one of them.

The FED CANNOT buy bonds from the treasury. NEVER HAS NEVER WILL.
 
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NoDrama

Well-Known Member
tokeprep said:
The Nikkei was below 11,000 points on the first day of the year. In six months it shot up above 15,000--a gain of almost 50%. It's still up 25% for the year.

The S&P 500 is up less than 15% in the same period. The fact that the Nikkei is correcting, given that significant run, shouldn't be surprising. Since a year ago the Nikkei was below 9,000 points, that's even more true.
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12 years ago it was above 20,000.
 
Balzac89

Balzac89

Undercover Mod
I'm just glad volatility signals a healthy market. Right? Or are the profiteers trying to make money on the way down...

I just see the volatility of the Japanese market reaching the point of crash. When it is down almost 900 points in one session. Than immediately the following day up almost 500 points and leveling off at 250+.

Goldman closed its long positions in the Nikkei.

The only positive is the volatility is pushing investors into the U.S. market.
 
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tokeprep

Well-Known Member
Balzac89 said:
I'm just glad volatility signals a healthy market. Right? Or are the profiteers trying to make money on the way down...

I just see the volatility of the Japanese market reaching the point of crash. When it is down almost 900 points in one session. Than immediately the following day up almost 500 points and leveling off at 250+.

Goldman closed its long positions in the Nikkei.

The only positive is the volatility is pushing investors into the U.S. market.
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The volatility reflects something internal to Japan. There's been an expectation that the new prime minister's policies would finally revitalize the economy and make it healthy again after twenty years of stumbling (keeping in mind that Japan's problem has long been deflation). Japanese markets ran up massively--far exceeding increases in worldwide counterparts--on the expectation (or perhaps just the hope) that Japan would finally be cured.

Now the market is questioning whether those policies are working sufficiently to fill the expectations they spurred. The market is still up significantly over where it was a year ago, so people still see things better than they must have then, but the boundless optimism for Abenomics has ceased.

At least for now. A few months of good data and you could see the Japanese market jump right back up to where it was before this correction began. Stumbles are only forgotten when events unfold that render them stumbles; so long as they're present events they're far more compelling than contingencies.
 
Balzac89

Balzac89

Undercover Mod
Johnny Retro said:


Explain that statement
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The price of Gold and Silver are determined more by contracts that do not involve physical metals.

The Contracts can be settled in real metal or the opposite in cash. (Cash is easier and cheaper)

Supply and Demand for real investment play a very small role in price determination.

Mainly because the contracts account for 100x the amount of physical Gold and Silver that can be bought and sold.
 
Balzac89

Balzac89

Undercover Mod
Most of the Gold in the world is held in the Central Banks (and is not available to the open market).

You know the ones that call it a barbarous relic.

The ones who print all the currency and loan it for free. The banks who take the money and don't loan it. They gamble with it.
 
Balzac89

Balzac89

Undercover Mod
This is the same reason 401ks are a joke.

It's like giving your savings to a gambler and sending him to the Casino.

If he wins you get your money back and a little extra.

If he loses he has no consequences it wasn't his money.


Bankers are the biggest criminals in history.
 
Johnny Retro

Johnny Retro

Well-Known Member
Balzac89 said:
The price of Gold and Silver are determined more by contracts that do not involve physical metals.

The Contracts can be settled in real metal or the opposite in cash. (Cash is easier and cheaper)

Supply and Demand for real investment play a very small role in price determination.

Mainly because the contracts account for 100x the amount of physical Gold and Silver that can be bought and sold.
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You are referring to the futures market which settles in physicals which totally debunks your statement. Supply and demand for futures play a huge role in price determination. If futures play no role then the argument can be made that this huge bull market in gold and silver has also been manipulation. It goes both ways. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_contract_specifications.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_contract_specifications.html
 
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