A rational, reasonable price for pot?

[desert dude]

I lack the conversion for dollars to hours. Understanding that a pound of well-trimmed (not the cheap-ass commercial trim I see and despise) weed takes 20ish man-hours, would you not consider that a factor that requires addressing? cn

Of course, all input costs have to be considered but there is no rule that says all your input costs will be recouped. If a grower's input costs are such that he makes no profit, then he stops growing, i.e. he was unsuccessful at the business. That is the free market.

 

[cannabineer]

It's clear to me that DD is basing his estimate on unrestricted mechanized outdoor agriculture on an industrial scale ... with indifferently machine-groomed product. Then i could see the price being equivalent to a high-end produce crop, say $20-30 a pound. cn

Of course, all input costs have to be considered but there is no rule that says all your input costs will be recouped. If a grower's input costs are such that he makes no profit, then he stops growing, i.e. he was unsuccessful at the business. That is the free market.

And there's the skunk in the woodpile. I'm talking Château Lapierre and DD is talking Bud Lite. cn

 

[UncleBuck]

Of course, all input costs have to be considered but there is no rule that says all your input costs will be recouped. If a grower's input costs are such that he makes no profit, then he stops growing, i.e. he was unsuccessful at the business. That is the free market.

this single bottle of beer costs $8 and it exists in the free market.

this 6-pack costs $4 and exists in the free market.

you talk about the free market of cannabis, but you are admittedly not a smoker or grower, much less a connoisseur.

you're out of your element here.

 

[fb360]

Of course, all input costs have to be considered but there is no rule that says all your input costs will be recouped. If a grower's input costs are such that he makes no profit, then he stops growing, i.e. he was unsuccessful at the business. That is the free market.

What your saying is comparable to a new company trying to make toothpaste or razors...

Sure you can try to compete, and your manufacturing processes might even be better, as well as your business plan, however how can you win when Shick or Colgate is manufacturing those entities at a production quantity that took years, if not decades to get to?
Success in that type of market is based solely on your ability to produce more, and sell for less, thus undermining your competition. This results in lower quality of goods due to lack of competition. It's a lose - lose method.

 

[UncleBuck]

DEA dude's dream:

everyone else's nightmare:

 

[cannabineer]

Buck ... how old is that six-pack? By the time I could walk (and inspect the fridge) beer cans had tabs. cn (edit) damn that nug is like a ROCK.

 

[UncleBuck]

Buck ... how old is that six-pack? By the time I could walk (and inspect the fridge) beer cans had tabs. cn

lol, a google image search for "6 pack of hamm's" came back with more of these than i would care to admit.

to answer your question, it was someone selling a 1950's 6 pack of hamm's on ebay.

 

[desert dude]

First and foremost, since I have added this, I would like to show the math again comparing liquor to pot:
My estimates on the market:
100$ for a lb of mersh
~1000$/lb of killer indoor.

1k/lb is an extremely good price in the free market. If you compare it in terms of consumption to liquor (I can drink a 5th in 1 night, which costs me ~$20) Therefore, i could consume 365 5ths, at 7.3k$/year. I can smoke about an 8th a day, which would take 128 days to complete a full lb. Using the same overall cost as a year of liquor consumption, it would equate to me consuming 2.85lbs in 1 year, at ~2500$/lb.

Secondly, just think about it dude. You say about 100$ per lb, yet give no reason to think that is even attainable.
Lets say you are growing indoors: It takes a minimum of about 2 month to produce flowers, even if you don't veg. Consequently, in the time you are growing your lb, you rack up:
2months of electricity
2months of nutes
2months of water
2months of labor
2months of equipment use

That is all for 1 lb, even before the actual harvest begins...
The ONLY way your prediction could work is if they did all of that on a MASSIVE scale. There is just no room for profit with your prediction of 100$/lb

I won't dispute your numbers, although if I drank as much booze as you estimate I would be dead on day 1 but that is just me.

I haven't talked about outdoor vs indoor growing. Personally, I think indoor growing will virtually disappear in a free market.

I invite you to compete against my cousin the tobacco farmer. He grows and sells about 3,000 pounds of burley per year. That is not massive.

I am making my case from a purely economics perspective. The individual buyer does not care what you paid to produce your pot, his buying decisions are driven by multiple factors but price is one of the biggest. If your pot is priced at $1000 per pound and Joe's is priced at $900, guess who the consumer is going to buy from. Seeing Joe making sales and you sitting on your crop you grudgingly decide to lower your price to $895... then Joe lowers his price to $890... all the way down to the point where one of you throws in the towel because you can't make a go of it, then the market balances at a "fair" price. This is simple economics and is irrefutable.

 

[UncleBuck]

I won't dispute your numbers, although if I drank as much booze as you estimate I would be dead on day 1 but that is just me.

I haven't talked about outdoor vs indoor growing. Personally, I think indoor growing will virtually disappear in a free market.

I invite you to compete against my cousin the tobacco farmer. He grows and sells about 3,000 pounds of burley per year. That is not massive.

I am making my case from a purely economics perspective. The individual buyer does not care what you paid to produce your pot, his buying decisions are driven by multiple factors but price is one of the biggest. If your pot is priced at $1000 per pound and Joe's is priced at $900, guess who the consumer is going to buy from. Seeing Joe making sales and you sitting on your crop you grudgingly decide to lower your price to $895... then Joe lowers his price to $890... all the way down to the point where one of you throws in the towel because you can't make a go of it, then the market balances at a "fair" price. This is simple economics and is irrefutable.

people don't generally buy a year's supply of weed all at once though. it is not a durable good.

you have a lot of unrealistic assumptions.

 

[desert dude]

What your saying is comparable to a new company trying to make toothpaste or razors...

Sure you can try to compete, and your manufacturing processes might even be better, as well as your business plan, however how can you win when Shick or Colgate is manufacturing those entities at a production quantity that took years, if not decades to get to?
Success in that type of market is based solely on your ability to produce more, and sell for less, thus undermining your competition. This results in lower quality of goods due to lack of competition. It's a lose - lose method.

Actually, competition results in higher quality at a cheaper price for the consumer. It is a win-win system, and is the fundamental basis of the free market system.

 

[DelSlow]

For the most part, I think prices are going to stay around where they are now.

 

[desert dude]

people don't generally buy a year's supply of weed all at once though. it is not a durable good.

you have a lot of unrealistic assumptions.

I don't see anything at all unrealistic about my assumptions.

 

[desert dude]

For the most part, I think prices are going to stay around where they are now.

Just out of curiosity, where are prices now? I realize it varies by location, but generally what does a pound of pot sell for/

 

[cannabineer]

Actually, competition results in higher quality at a cheaper price for the consumer. It is a win-win system, and is the fundamental basis of the free market system.

Competition can also occlude monopolization, which adversely affects consumer choice. When I think of the quality difference between staple foods I could buy here in the 70s and 80s ... and what was available in Europe ... I am impressed by how a monolithic market is the enemy of quality. The great improvement in our current foods and cars has everything to do with our market being pushed into close contact with other world markets. It would not have happened had the domestic giants remained unchallenged imo. cn

 

[desert dude]

Bear, not sure I understand your point with "occlude". Competition indeed blocks out monopoly formation, but I don't think that is what you meant, is it?

 

[cannabineer]

Bear, not sure I understand your point with "occlude". Competition indeed blocks out monopoly formation, but I don't think that is what you meant, is it?

I meant the reverse. Monopolization tends to push out competition. This is where you and I have a difference of ... ideology, perhaps. cn

 

[Samwell Seed Well]

I don't see anything at all unrealistic about my assumptions.

thats because you dont smoke weed . . . . . of course you wouldnt understand . . .

 

[desert dude]

thats because you dont smoke weed . . . . . of course you wouldnt understand . . .

Another great economic mind chimes in with a substantial contribution to the discussion.

 

[Samwell Seed Well]

lol thats right i only grow it process it and retail it . . .i probably started doing what i do about the time you stopped saying the term" doing the pot"

you dont understnad pot, you are donny so sit back and take it in as this is not your kansas

 

[desert dude]

I meant the reverse. Monopolization tends to push out competition. This is where you and I have a difference of ... ideology, perhaps. cn

I thought you must have meant the reverse. Monopolies are impossible in a free market, except perhaps in a few unique circumstances. I am not sure what you are implying about my ideology. No need for implications and guess work though, I am against monopolies and completely in favor of free markets. I am a capitalist, minus the crony part.