Climate in the 21st Century

[DIY-HP-LED]

The Climate Change We've Already Created Will Last 50,000 Years, Scientists Warn

In February 2000, Paul Crutzen rose to speak at the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Mexico. And when he spoke, people took notice. He was then one of the world's most cited scientists, a Nobel laureate working on huge-scale problems – the ozone hole, the effects of a nuclear winter.

So little wonder that a word he improvised took hold and spread widely: this was the Anthropocene, a proposed new geological epoch, representing an Earth transformed by the effects of industrialised humanity.

The idea of an entirely new and human-created geological epoch is a sobering scenario as context for the current UN climate summit, COP28. The impact of decisions made at these and other similar conferences will be felt not just beyond our own lives and those of our children, but perhaps beyond the life of human society as we know it.

The Anthropocene is now in wide currency, but when Crutzen first spoke this was still a novel suggestion. In support of his new brain-child, Crutzen cited many planetary symptoms: enormous deforestation, the mushrooming of dams across the world's large rivers, overfishing, a planet's nitrogen cycle overwhelmed by fertiliser use, the rapid rise in greenhouse gases.

As for climate change itself, well, the warning bells were ringing, certainly. Global mean surface temperatures had risen by about half a degree since the mid-20th century. But, they were still within the norm for an interglacial phase of the ice ages. Among many emerging problems, climate seemed one for the future.

A little more than two decades on, the future has arrived. By 2022, global temperature had climbed another half a degree, the past nine years being the hottest since records began. And 2023 has seen climate records being not just broken, but smashed.

By September there had already been 38 days when global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial ones by 1.5°C, the safe limit of warming set by the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris agreement. In previous years that was rare, and before 2000 this milestone had never been recorded.

With this leap in temperatures came record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires and floods, exacerbated by other local human actions. Climate has moved centre stage on an Anthropocene Earth.

Why this surge in temperatures? In part, it's been the inexorable rise in greenhouse gases, as fossil fuels continue to dominate human energy use. When Crutzen spoke in Mexico, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were about 370 parts per million (ppm), already up from the pre-industrial 280 ppm. They're now around 420 ppm, and climbing by some 2 ppm per year.

More at the link.

The Climate Change We've Already Created Will Last 50,000 Years, Scientists Warn

In February 2000, Paul Crutzen rose to speak at the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Mexico.

www.sciencealert.com

It's hard to predict 5 years into the future much less 50,000 years! There are too many variables for any such prediction, sure carbon sticks around, but it is also part of the biosphere and there is a carbon cycle. In any case we need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and then we will see how fast the CO2 is absorbed by natural processes or human intervention. We can live with some increase of CO2, but we can't keep on going the way we are without serious consequences and need to worry about the next 50 years a lot more than the next 50,000! If we don't deal with this issue in the next 50 years the ones after that might not mean much.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

21 Gigawatts of US Coal to Retire in Next 3 Years, 88–211 Gigawatts of Solar to Join Grid - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! I just wrapped up reports on new power capacity in the United States and electricity generation in the United States. Clearly, the trend is toward more renewables and less coal. Aside from showing power ...

cleantechnica.com

"I just wrapped up reports on new power capacity in the United States and electricity generation in the United States. Clearly, the trend is toward more renewables and less coal. Aside from showing power capacity additions from month to month by energy source, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) includes a section in its monthly reports that shows expected power capacity retirements in the coming 3 years. It’s a fascinating forecast to look at".

 

[OldMedUser]

It's hard to predict 5 years into the future much less 50,000 years! There are too many variables for any such prediction, sure carbon sticks around, but it is also part of the biosphere and there is a carbon cycle. In any case we need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and then we will see how fast the CO2 is absorbed by natural processes or human intervention. We can live with some increase of CO2, but we can't keep on going the way we are without serious consequences and need to worry about the next 50 years a lot more than the next 50,000! If we don't deal with this issue in the next 50 years the ones after that might not mean much.

I think methane is going to be the bigger issue overall. The rate the permafrost is melting is quickly going to flood the atmosphere with methane that we will have no control over at all. All the methane releases due to the oil industry could maybe be capped but not likely but there's nothing to be done with millions of square miles of rotting vegetation. We are already at the tipping point so it won't take much more to push us over.

About the only thing that could halt the warming now is a super volcano eruption causing a mini ice age. That won't be any fun either and even if it's one in a remote location millions will likely die as food production is drastically curtailed.

I hate to be pessimistic about things but I did study environmental science and not seeing much to be positive about. I fear for the world my grandchildren are inheriting.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I think methane is going to be the bigger issue overall. The rate the permafrost is melting is quickly going to flood the atmosphere with methane that we will have no control over at all. All the methane releases due to the oil industry could maybe be capped but not likely but there's nothing to be done with millions of square miles of rotting vegetation. We are already at the tipping point so it won't take much more to push us over.

About the only thing that could halt the warming now is a super volcano eruption causing a mini ice age. That won't be any fun either and even if it's one in a remote location millions will likely die as food production is drastically curtailed.

I hate to be pessimistic about things but I did study environmental science and not seeing much to be positive about. I fear for the world my grandchildren are inheriting.

We none the less have to try and mitigate the problem and are like Ukraine, in an existential fight that we dare not lose. I try to stay focused on solutions and I see some at hand and a major transformation over the next decade as several factors have converged to make renewables profitable and able to easily out compete fossil fuels for energy production. The recent government policy drive for solar and EVs are not an accident but based on the kinds of economic forecasts and dramatic price drops I've been posting about here. As Tony Seba says cost curves are like gravity and new technology adoption is not linear but follows an S curve and we are on a steep incline for solar followed by EVs.

Methane only lasts about 12 years in the atmosphere but has a much higher greenhouse effect, CO2 lasts a long time, or so they say, but we have a natural cycle to capture and sequester carbon.

 

[OldMedUser]

We none the less have to try and mitigate the problem and are like Ukraine, in an existential fight that we dare not lose. I try to stay focused on solutions and I see some at hand and a major transformation over the next decade as several factors have converged to make renewables profitable and able to easily out compete fossil fuels for energy production. The recent government policy drive for solar and EVs are not an accident but based on the kinds of economic forecasts and dramatic price drops I've been posting about here. As Tony Seba says cost curves are like gravity and new technology adoption is not linear but follows an S curve and we are on a steep incline for solar followed by EVs.

Methane only lasts about 12 years in the atmosphere but has a much higher greenhouse effect, CO2 lasts a long time, or so they say, but we have a natural cycle to capture and sequester carbon.

Mitigation attempts are too little, too late so far. No pain no gain and world gov'ts are still trying to make this painless to keep voters happy. If they really took needed steps then they'd get voted out and right-wing gov'ts would reverse even the meagre steps taken so far so we'd be worse off.

Who knows. Maybe shit will turn around but I would not be betting on that.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Mitigation attempts are too little, too late so far. No pain no gain and world gov'ts are still trying to make this painless to keep voters happy. If they really took needed steps then they'd get voted out and right-wing gov'ts would reverse even the meagre steps taken so far so we'd be worse off.

Who knows. Maybe shit will turn around but I would not be betting on that.

I agree, but greed gives me hope, have faith in greed!

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Evolution might stop humans from solving climate change, researchers say

Central features of human evolution may stop our species from resolving global environmental problems like climate change, says a recent study led by the University of Maine.

phys.org

 

[injinji]

I think methane is going to be the bigger issue overall. The rate the permafrost is melting is quickly going to flood the atmosphere with methane that we will have no control over at all. All the methane releases due to the oil industry could maybe be capped but not likely but there's nothing to be done with millions of square miles of rotting vegetation. . . . . . . . . .

Beef is also a huge source of methane. In the US, the ag sector contributes as much greenhouse gases as the transport sector, and cows are a big reason. Almost 950M worldwide, chewing their cud and burping.

 

[OldMedUser]

Beef is also a huge source of methane. In the US, the ag sector contributes as much greenhouse gases as the transport sector, and cows are a big reason. Almost 950M worldwide, chewing their cud and burping.

I looked that up and it is a lot. 14.5% of global methane emissions are from cows. A not insignificant amount by any measure.

I think it's time we kill all the cows and eat them!

I's like to be able to say that it's the main reason I and my wife no longer eat beef but it's because we both have gastric distress from it, me more than her, due to diverticulitis. I do miss a good hamburger.

 

[CCGNZ]

I looked that up and it is a lot. 14.5% of global methane emissions are from cows. A not insignificant amount by any measure.

I think it's time we kill all the cows and eat them!

I's like to be able to say that it's the main reason I and my wife no longer eat beef but it's because we both have gastric distress from it, me more than her, due to diverticulitis. I do miss a good hamburger.

I ,myself also do not eat too much red meat,and when I do it's WELL DONE,when I see people eating meat w/red juices flowing I almost puke and that was long before the proper temp. cooking info became vogue.

 

[OldMedUser]

I ,myself also do not eat too much red meat,and when I do it's WELL DONE,when I see people eating meat w/red juices flowing I almost puke and that was long before the proper temp. cooking info became vogue.

My dad worked for Gainers Meat in Vancouver all his life. Started there killing beef with a sledge hammer before WW II, joined the Navy for the duration then went back to work for them when it was all over. We had steak at least 3 times a week and a beef roast every Sunday for sure. He liked his very well done where I always wanted med-rare. Just a little blood was fine with me. Once I was out on my own I didn't have steak all that often and when eating out I would go for seafood more often than beef.

It might not be the beef that causes me gastric distress but the fact that it's a heavy meal very low in fibre that causes me grief. Due to diverticular pockets in my sigmoid colon I have a constriction there so it hangs up causing cramps, lots of pain and many trips to the bathroom for a couple days or longer. Finally saw a GI doc who suggested Meta Mucil and that stuff works great. Any time I eat a low fibre meal I take a tbsp of that in water or juice right after the meal and all is well. Fish is really expensive up here so we eat a lot of chicken or pork but I'm not a big pork fan.

You can eat steak raw without problems tho a quick searing over high heat is advisable to kill any bacteria on the surface but unlike pork, beef doesn't have parasites in it to cause problems. If ground up into burger meat then cooking well is advised due to possible exposure to pathogens. Chicken should always be well cooked as it almost always has some level of salmonella on it.

I have not been getting enough protein so got 16lb bulk orders of hemp hearts and hemp protein powder I've been adding to smoothies etc to try to get 50g of protein at least every day. If I ever get going on my exercise program I'll increase that to 75g/day to build back some of the muscle I've lost sitting around doing nothing the last 7 or 8 years. Luckily I don't gain weight when inactive but have exchanged muscle mass for a little extra fat around the middle. Not much as overall I've lost about 10lbs from my working wt of 145lbs.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The battery should outlast the EV at a half a million clicks!

It might be a couple of years before we see them mass produced and, on the market, but it illustrates what is coming and they are not alone, this is not a one-horse race. It also shows the rigorous validation and testing process in the high stakes EV battery market. Batteries are easier and cheaper to produce than ICE engines, but hard to get just right with a new technology just getting off the ground. What was a model T engine like and what were auto engines like just 10 years after?

QuantumScape's solid-state batteries pass latest test, could offer 500,000 km without range loss

One year after initial deliveries of solid-state battery prototypes to its automotive partners, QuantumScape is receiving additional praise from PowerCo...

electrek.co

 

[injinji]

. . . . . . . . . . .I have not been getting enough protein so got 16lb bulk orders of hemp hearts and hemp protein powder I've been adding to smoothies etc to try to get 50g of protein at least every day. If I ever get going on my exercise program I'll increase that to 75g/day to build back some of the muscle I've lost sitting around doing nothing the last 7 or 8 years. Luckily I don't gain weight when inactive but have exchanged muscle mass for a little extra fat around the middle. Not much as overall I've lost about 10lbs from my working wt of 145lbs.

I've been trying to get half of my protein from plant based foods. I eat half a cup of soybeans every meal. I used to get the dry ones, but they are hard to find, plus they are not cheap. So I buy the dry beans, soak them over night and pressure cook them in my FoodieAF. I cook two and a half cups of the dry beans at a time. They last about a week. A seven pound bag of dry beans last me over a month. I think it cost about 25 bucks.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I became interested and then concerned about global climate change a while back. Then I started looking into what was being done about it and discovered the dropping solar prices and like most others was blown away by their rapid reduction in price, at least from China. I'm further encouraged by their predicted future price drop. Uncle Sam is so concerned about this they have ridiculous tariffs for now in America and Canada and still they are the cheapest form of electrical generation bar none. Panels look to become even more efficient in the near future and that means even cheaper costs per watt.

Batteries look to be going the same way with costs now down to $100 kWh and expected to drop as performance increases, the battery factories are sprouting like mushrooms in North America and Europe. As Tony Seba says, cost curves are like gravity and new technology adoption follows an S curve and that curve is ascending rapidly for batteries. We have the EVs, they are not the issue, it's the batteries and supporting infrastructure that we need.

The trends and economics of the transition have become clearer over the past few years, it is highly profitable to go green with solar and storage and will be cheaper than the cost of fuel alone in the next few years. It will mean changes in behavior and even a paradigm shift, most will top up from home, but as EV use spreads and they get better many will also use fast chargers, but they won't be as fast as gassing up and will cost more than charging at home. Transportation along with home and industrial electrical use are big carbon and pollution emitters and we look to be reducing emissions from those sectors over the next decade or two by a lot.

It has now become a question of money, economics and good old capitalism supplanting old technology with new more profitable technology. Solar is the cheapest form of power generation even in Canada and wind is not that far behind, battery prices are dropping while they improve in quality, there is a convergence of technologies that make the new system work and disrupts the value chain of the old system. That is what is happening to both solar and EVs right now and over the next decade. Green is great, but entrepreneurs, capitalists, contractors, government officials are where the rubber meets the road of economic viability. Any plan to go green has to make economic sense and more importantly a profit for somebody and a benefit to the end user. Solar, batteries and EVs tick all the boxes for a transition to occur in these areas.

 

[cannabineer]

I became interested and then concerned about global climate change a while back. Then I started looking into what was being done about it and discovered the dropping solar prices and like most others was blown away by their rapid reduction in price, at least from China. I'm further encouraged by their predicted future price drop. Uncle Sam is so concerned about this they have ridiculous tariffs for now in America and Canada and still they are the cheapest form of electrical generation bar none. Panels look to become even more efficient in the near future and that means even cheaper costs per watt.

Batteries look to be going the same way with costs now down to $100 kWh and expected to drop as performance increases, the battery factories are sprouting like mushrooms in North America and Europe. As Tony Seba says, cost curves are like gravity and new technology adoption follows an S curve and that curve is ascending rapidly for batteries. We have the EVs, they are not the issue, it's the batteries and supporting infrastructure that we need.

The trends and economics of the transition have become clearer over the past few years, it is highly profitable to go green with solar and storage and will be cheaper than the cost of fuel alone in the next few years. It will mean changes in behavior and even a paradigm shift, most will top up from home, but as EV use spreads and they get better many will also use fast chargers, but they won't be as fast as gassing up and will cost more than charging at home. Transportation along with home and industrial electrical use are big carbon and pollution emitters and we look to be reducing emissions from those sectors over the next decade or two by a lot.

It has now become a question of money, economics and good old capitalism supplanting old technology with new more profitable technology. Solar is the cheapest form of power generation even in Canada and wind is not that far behind, battery prices are dropping while they improve in quality, there is a convergence of technologies that make the new system work and disrupts the value chain of the old system. That is what is happening to both solar and EVs right now and over the next decade. Green is great, but entrepreneurs, capitalists, contractors, government officials are where the rubber meets the road of economic viability. Any plan to go green has to make economic sense and more importantly a profit for somebody and a benefit to the end user. Solar, batteries and EVs tick all the boxes for a transition to occur in these areas.

When I looked, even Chinese home batteries were $>300 per kWh.

I want to see that for G7-manufacture home batteries not branded Skum.

Look at the first comment. I don’t give a deep-fried rat butt for wholesale cell prices. I wanna see complete battery pack (retail, delivered and installed) hit the mark. I think it might take a decade.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/09/20230909-benchmark.html

Also, tariffs ridiculous? China engages in predatory market practices. The tariffs keep them from murdering domestic manufacture. I see the tariffs as necessary to protect G7- made storage.

 

[OldMedUser]

I've been trying to get half of my protein from plant based foods. I eat half a cup of soybeans every meal. I used to get the dry ones, but they are hard to find, plus they are not cheap. So I buy the dry beans, soak them over night and pressure cook them in my FoodieAF. I cook two and a half cups of the dry beans at a time. They last about a week. A seven pound bag of dry beans last me over a month. I think it cost about 25 bucks.

I avoid soy products of all kinds. Can cause hormone disruptions and there's a compound in them that has a negative effect on a man's prostate and I already have issues there. Gave up cashews for the same kind of thing and I love cashews.

Probably a few billion people eat soy every day and don't seem to suffer any harm but I'm not taking no chances.

One thing I have noticed since getting lots of hemp seed and protein in my diet is a big reduction in arthritis pain that took daily doses of CBD oil I make and regular RSO. I haven't had any CBD for at least a couple months and just a couple hits of pot in my pipe in the evenings. Not enough to be therapeutic in any way but good to relax and give me a little more appetite. Also taking salmon oil caps during that period for the omega 3 which hemp has lots of along with the 6 and 9. That's all supposed to be good to reduce inflammation and seems to work for me. Cholesterol is down below the high normal level which I was a couple points above for years. No way I was taking meds for that so great to see it down on it's own. Lots of oat bran in my smoothies which is supposed to help reduce that too.

Can put hemp hearts in almost anything. Had spaghetti tonight with my big scoop of hearts in it and don't even notice it's in there. Mild nutty flavour that goes with almost anything so easy to get my half cup with 28g of protein every day. Hemp hearts at the grocery here are $12 for half a pound and they don't sell the protein powder. I got 16lbs of each in bulk bags, free shipping from southern Alberta, $9lb for the seed and $10lb for the protein powder. Keep in the freezer for a couple years at least but the hearts should last a year before I need more. I use less of the powder so probably 2 years on that. Rocky Mountain Grain Products in Lethbridge, AB.

The best thing I've done for my health both physical and mental is to give up booze. Two and a half years in and feeling better than I have in decades. My head feels like it's getting clearer all the time and I don't miss those hangovers one little bit. Go on a 3 day binge once a month and suffer for 4 weeks with depression and stinking thinking.

Now the smoking has to go. Started today with reaching for my e-cig instead of rolling a smoke and already down to half the smokes. Need what lung power I have left for a few hits in my pipe here and there.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

When I looked, even Chinese home batteries were $>300 per kWh.

I want to see that for G7-manufacture home batteries not branded Skum.

Look at the first comment. I don’t give a deep-fried rat butt for wholesale cell prices. I wanna see complete battery pack (retail, delivered and installed) hit the mark. I think it might take a decade.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/09/20230909-benchmark.html

Also, tariffs ridiculous? China engages in predatory market practices. The tariffs keep them from murdering domestic manufacture. I see the tariffs as necessary to protect G7- made storage.

I'm only quoting industry sources for prices and projections. We need tariffs to compete and get a domestic industry off the ground, but they are high for economic reasons, not humanitarian ones, that is just the rationale. Wholesale prices need to come down before retail prices do, if you want immediate gratification, you'll need to wait a spell. Industries and financial institutions have to project ahead a little bit and they have been reading the same stuff I've been posting about prices and projections. The video I posted earlier by Tony Seba is interesting because of his track record and he is one of the people those big government and industry types listen to. There are bigger ideas going on here than the daily retail price of PV solar panels or batteries. We need tariffs for now, but they only apply in North America, the rest of the planet are buying Chinese solar panels because they are cheap.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

World Leaders Failed Us, But We Have the Power to End the Era of Fossil Fuels | Common Dreams

Over 1,600 institutions, including hundreds of faith-based organizations, have now joined the fight to move money away from polluting fossil fuels and toward clean energy solutions—yours should be next.

www.commondreams.org

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

When I looked, even Chinese home batteries were $>300 per kWh.

I want to see that for G7-manufacture home batteries not branded Skum.

Look at the first comment. I don’t give a deep-fried rat butt for wholesale cell prices. I wanna see complete battery pack (retail, delivered and installed) hit the mark. I think it might take a decade.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/09/20230909-benchmark.html

Also, tariffs ridiculous? China engages in predatory market practices. The tariffs keep them from murdering domestic manufacture. I see the tariffs as necessary to protect G7- made storage.

Tariffs in Canada are over 150% for Chinese solar modules, but checking into the American situation they don't appear to be that high, I'll need to look into this more. Meanwhile, this is probably why there are tariffs for now, but they had better start competing. Expect Mexico to be a player too, probably making Chinese solar panels and EVs to break into the North American market using free trade, there is a war over the future being fought.

Texas Is Going To Send Lots Of Solar Modules All Over The USA

A gigantic new solar module factory is just the tip of the renewable energy revolution taking place in Texas.

cleantechnica.com

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

What is the import duty for solar panels from China to Canada?


But a new ruling by the Canada Border Services Agency imposes duties of up to 286 per cent on Chinese-sourced solar panels, with potential impacts across the solar industry.
Rift in Canada's Solar Industry as Tariffs Imposed on Chinese ...


What is the US tax on solar panels from China?


The new tariffs, which will be as high as 254.19% (i.e., 238.96% antidumping duty plus 15.24% countervailing duty) will significantly increase the costs for U.S. solar power installers, but ..Sep 3, 2023
US Imposes Duties on Southeast Asia Solar Panel Makers Evading China ...


What are the EU tariffs on China solar panels?


Chinese manufacturers have been allowed to sell solar products in Europe free of duties if they do so at or above a progressively declining minimum price. If sold for less than that price, they are subject to duties of up to 64.9 percent.Sep 1, 2018

EU ends trade controls on Chinese solar panels - Reuters