War

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
This would be essential for the Russians to move their equipment out of Crimea and southern Ukraine if the Kerch Bridge is taken out and it might be, if the reports prove true, third time is the charm. If they cut them in half on the mainland too by a drive to the sea of Azov, Vlad will lose all of his military equipment in southwest Ukraine and Crimea, they will have to burn it, if they have fuel left or leave for the Ukrainians. Such a catastrophe might bring Vlad's government down and or lead to a Russian military collapse in Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians and soldiers trapped in Crimea and starving while under constant bombardment all winter long and scrambling to get out any way they can.

 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: American analysts named three scenarios, noting the most successful

ISW analysts Carolina Hird and Ekaterina Stepanenko, as well as Frederick W. Kagan from the American Enterprise Institute in the TIME material noted a favorable situation for the APU and the continuation of the initiative. They named three key points:

▪A mechanized breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can break part or all of the Russian defensive lines.

▪ Russian troops, which are already morally depressed, can start a controlled or uncontrolled withdrawal.

▪ Constant pressure and a campaign of closure could create gaps in Russian lines that Ukrainian troops can exploit first at a local level, and then for deeper penetration. Analysts consider this option to be slower, but more successful.

It is enough for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reach the Sea of Azov in order to cut the land lines of communication of the Russian Federation and make almost the entire territory that Russia holds to the west of their advance unsuitable for defense.

The Pentagon also expressed confidence that the Ukrainians have a significant combat capability, which they will use at the right time and in the right place to protect their country and reclaim their sovereign territory.” But they noted: "there are no illusions that this fight will be easy."
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Hobbyist have known about the military potential of FPV and other drones for a long time. I imagine some of them put a pair of spare goggles on military officers and government officials and took them for a ride to convince them. Now the FPV drones they use are bigger and built for the job, but they could use a secure military grade comms kit and perhaps some shielding, FPV drones tend not to be as vulnerable to EW guns as commercial drones that fly higher up, FPV quads fly fast at treetop level or below. Economy and effectiveness are the point, and these are orders of magnitude cheaper than equivalent military hardware.


How could FPV drones change warfare?
The light “kamikaze” drones used in Ukraine are cheap and lethal

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A year after they were invented, both sides in Ukraine are already fielding thousands of racing drones with improvised warheads. Ukraine’s defence ministry calls them kamikazes, because the warhead destroys the drone itself. They are also known as First Person View (fpv) drones because the operator dons goggles that show a video feed from them as they fly. They can carry out strikes that would be out of reach of other weapons. In one clip that has been posted online fpvs dive into a tunnel to attack a Russian tank. In others they race after and destroy speeding vehicles. Faster, nimbler and cheaper than regular drones, they could transform warfare, claim analysts. How?

Armies have for a while been using consumer quadcopters, which fly themselves, to drop grenades. fpvs require a skilled remote pilot and are built for speed and manoeuvrability. They loiter as well as fly. The Ukrainians invented homemade versions of these munitions, which are now being copied by the Russians. They are assembled by volunteers or by the soldiers themselves from components provided by fundraisers. The simplicity of the electronics and use of commercial components means that they are cheap to make. One Ukrainian-made Pegasus attack drone costs $462 to buy. The larger and more refined SwitchBlade drones that America supplies to Ukraine, which carry only a small antipersonnel warhead, cost $52,000 apiece or more. fpvs’ low cost compensates for their relatively low rate of success in destroying targets. Operators put their success rate at 50%-80%, compared with 90% or more for American Javelin anti-tank missiles.
 
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printer

Well-Known Member
Explosions reported near Crimean Bridge, potentially damaging Russian chemical tanker
Explosions near the Crimean Bridge were reported by Russian-affiliated Telegram channels during the early hours of August 5. Despite previous reports, Russian sources claim that no explosions were recorded directly on the bridge itself.

Local Russian-appointed officials stated that explosions were heard in the occupied city of Kerch and subsequently announced a threat of attack on the Crimean Bridge. Traffic was reportedly blocked to protect the bridge.

The Moscow Times Telegram channel later revealed that the naval drone attack on the Kerch Strait could have potentially damaged the Russian "SIG" chemical tanker. According to an audio recording, sailors on the Russian SIG tanker are reporting that the ship is afloat but cannot move on its own.
The "Mercury" ship is currently working to support the SIG.

The damaged SIG tanker delivered aviation fuel from Crimea to Syria, for which the United States added it to the sanctions list in 2019.
According to Russian-state media, a group of rescuers were dispatched to the Kerch Strait following a drone attack on a chemical tanker.
 

CCGNZ

Well-Known Member

Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: American analysts named three scenarios, noting the most successful

ISW analysts Carolina Hird and Ekaterina Stepanenko, as well as Frederick W. Kagan from the American Enterprise Institute in the TIME material noted a favorable situation for the APU and the continuation of the initiative. They named three key points:

▪A mechanized breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can break part or all of the Russian defensive lines.

▪ Russian troops, which are already morally depressed, can start a controlled or uncontrolled withdrawal.

▪ Constant pressure and a campaign of closure could create gaps in Russian lines that Ukrainian troops can exploit first at a local level, and then for deeper penetration. Analysts consider this option to be slower, but more successful.

It is enough for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reach the Sea of Azov in order to cut the land lines of communication of the Russian Federation and make almost the entire territory that Russia holds to the west of their advance unsuitable for defense.

The Pentagon also expressed confidence that the Ukrainians have a significant combat capability, which they will use at the right time and in the right place to protect their country and reclaim their sovereign territory.” But they noted: "there are no illusions that this fight will be easy."
AS we in the West are disappointed w/the Ukranian's progress of western trained and equipped Brigades what is seemingly overlooked in the conversation in the media is the most important component in combined arms doctrine,AIR SUPPORT,Ukraine has none and a NATO ground force wouldn't advance one step forward without it,Ukraine is being asked to do the impossible which is to advance 75 miles or more to cut Russian forces in half w/virtually no air support and weak tactical air defence against the Russian's who control the sky's in the theater and whose attack copters operate relatively freely against any armored advance.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
AS we in the West are disappointed w/the Ukranian's progress of western trained and equipped Brigades what is seemingly overlooked in the conversation in the media is the most important component in combined arms doctrine,AIR SUPPORT,Ukraine has none and a NATO ground force wouldn't advance one step forward without it,Ukraine is being asked to do the impossible which is to advance 75 miles or more to cut Russian forces in half w/virtually no air support and weak tactical air defence against the Russian's who control the sky's in the theater and whose attack copters operate relatively freely against any armored advance.
I won't argue about the importance of conventional airpower, but manpads and AA systems make their use risky at best and we have not seen a lot of Russian air power used for this reason and others. Drones are filling many roles that conventional airpower used to, particularly reconnaissance and artillery spotting. They are also used to attack and bomb, the commercial ones are cheap, and they provide a kind of micro close tactical air support that appears to be very effective, in terms of kills and costs per kill.

These drones can clean out a trench line in front of a minefield so that it can be cleared by sappers while M777s using counter battery radars and long-range UAVs decimate the inaccurate Russian artillery fire on their advances. The Russians are using huge numbers of mines and that will slow them down air power or not and once they chew away at the outer crust the rest should be easier going. The drones should help them to spot the ambushes and killing grounds while providing artillery targets to clear a path. Drones are changing warfare and taking on some of the roles of conventional air power that has become very risky with the development of AA technology. Often, they can't spot or hit a small drone and the missile used to destroy it is an order of magnitude more expensive than the target.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
I won't argue about the importance of conventional airpower, but manpads and AA systems make their use risky at best and we have not seen a lot of Russian air power used for this reason and others. Drones are filling many roles that conventional airpower used to, particularly reconnaissance and artillery spotting. They are also used to attack and bomb, the commercial ones are cheap, and they provide a kind of micro close tactical air support that appears to be very effective, in terms of kills and costs per kill.

These drones can clean out a trench line in front of a minefield so that it can be cleared by sappers while M777s using counter battery radars and long-range UAVs decimate the inaccurate Russian artillery fire on their advances. The Russians are using huge numbers of mines and that will slow them down air power or not and once they chew away at the outer crust the rest should be easier going. The drones should help them to spot the ambushes and killing grounds while providing artillery targets to clear a path. Drones are changing warfare and taking on some of the roles of conventional air power that has become very risky with the development of AA technology. Often, they can't spot or hit a small drone and the missile used to destroy it is an order of magnitude more expensive than the target.
Sure, and the helicopters are launching missiles from past the distance of manpads and there is not a lot of

Ka-52 Alligator: The Russian helicopter slowing Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south
“These are devices that can fly very low, between 50 and 100 meters, which makes them practically undetectable for the Ukrainians,” says analyst Guillermo Pulido of Ejércitos magazine. “Given Russia’s air superiority, Ukraine cannot shoot them down with its aircraft or its low-level anti-aircraft defenses; moreover, [Kyiv’s] combat helicopters are much more rudimentary,” adds the specialist, who adds that some Ka-52 models are equipped with devices to deflect missiles launched against them. “The Ka-52 is, in principle, practically immune to any weapon the Ukrainians might employ against it; it can fire rockets from much longer distances than the Stinger anti-aircraft missiles the Ukrainians have, so it is feasible that it would be a good weapon to stop the counteroffensive.”

However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine was launched in February 2022, Moscow has lost about 40 such aircraft. At the same time, these helicopters, according to British intelligence, have wreaked a heavy cost on Ukrainian forces in terms of casualties and material damage. In recent months Moscow has deployed a new model, the Ka-52M, developed after the Syrian war, according to the British Ministry of Defense, which incorporates improvements suggested by the Russian Air Force during that campaign.
 
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