Stuff that doesn't really fit in either "Examples of" thread....

[cannabineer]

You're most likely correct. There are many variables that guide how and where society goes, and any single event could completely alter everything. With that being said, we can observe what has happened in society in the past and use it to make an educated guess on what is likely to occur next. To continue with your analogy, it's counting cards in Vegas.

You can count cards when the mechanics of the game are transparent, and you can identify situations (based on past play) that give you a statistical edge.
Our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying large-scale sociopolitical human activity, what becomes “history”, are not. The high incidence of utopian hypothetical models from intelligent, worldly observers suggests this to me.

I was thinking the slots are the better analogy. They’re more like the opaque forces actually driving history. You can’t count cards, since the next event is designed to be nearly random, though a large sample of lever pulls converges on a single loss value: the programmed house take.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

You can count cards when the mechanics of the game are transparent, and you can identify situations (based on past play) that give you a statistical edge.
Our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying large-scale sociopolitical human activity, what becomes “history”, are not. The high incidence of utopian hypothetical models from intelligent, worldly observers suggests this to me.

I was thinking the slots are the better analogy. They’re more like the opaque forces actually driving history. You can’t count cards, since the next event is designed to be nearly random, though a large sample of lever pulls converges on a single loss value: the programmed house take.

you can count cards, i learned how...but the more cards, the harder it is to keep the count, and they use several decks in a shoe...so you can count cards, but you would have to be a major savant to keep track of the count with more than three decks in play.

 

[Herb & Suds]

Just a reminder as we get closer to a police state

 

[Fogdog]

So, Mr. Bundy does not want to answer for his conduct before the law and is snowflaking when required. If he does not show up, then the judge issues an arrest warrant and the sheriff enforces it, with the FBI standing over his fucking shoulder. Seems a simple enough problem to solve, if he refuses the FBI removes him from his job, they do it all the time.

Turns out the Sheriff was holding out until a court order gave him cover.

Idaho sheriff will serve legal docs to Ammon Bundy. St. Luke’s withdraws court request

Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/northwest/idaho/article274518496.html#storylink=cpy

:An Idaho sheriff has agreed to serve court documents to far-right activist Ammon Bundy after Idaho’s largest hospital system asked the state Supreme Court to compel him to do so. Two days ago, attorneys for St. Luke’s Health System petitioned the Idaho Supreme Court to order Gem County Sheriff Donnie Wunder to uphold his duties and serve documents to Bundy at his Emmett home"

“St. Luke’s and Sheriff Wunder agree that Mr. Bundy poses a real threat of physical violence and that community safety is paramount,” the joint statement read. “They sincerely hope that Mr. Bundy will cause no violence, but they agree that the rule of law must be upheld and that he cannot stop legal processes by threatening harm to others.”

 

[Fogdog]

'If I'm wrong I need therapy': Ammon Bundy responds to St. Luke's legal action

Attorneys for St. Luke’s filed a motion for contempt against Bundy in February and are asking for punitive damages of $7.5 million. Bundy said he is being harassed.

www.ktvb.com

The video contained in the link explains what's happening.

When asked why St. Luke's and its attorneys did not file a default judgment from the outset of this case, Stidham says they have two reasons:

"One is procedural; because of different steps that need to be taken in the case regarding amendments we were not able to move promptly to default judgment. Now there's also - to be candid - strategic reasons. We believe, and we have alleged in our proceedings, that this is a grift," Stidham said, "A tragic situation regarding this infant was used by Mr. Bundy and the others to raise money, feed the beast that is the People's Rights Network financially, get the publicity, drive up membership in People's Rights Network. We believe that cynical grift is what is behind all of this. And then connect it to now: We believe reason Mr. Bundy didn't appear is because he doesn't want the hood opened up on how this operation works."

Stidham said they want to unveil Bundy's finances and expose what his protest really was. They had an expert assess and review damages and losses due to these protests and ongoing threats.

"I want to make it clear: there were really significant damages - financial - that St. Luke's suffered because of this," Stidham said. "We have an expert report that estimates the loss, immediate loss, to St. Luke's, that includes lost patient visits, disruptions, security costs at $3.5 million. This was not a cost-free harassment. Then if you look at ongoing security concerns for St. Luke's, the number of damages and cost to St. Luke's, you get in the tens of millions of dollars."

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

'If I'm wrong I need therapy': Ammon Bundy responds to St. Luke's legal action

Attorneys for St. Luke’s filed a motion for contempt against Bundy in February and are asking for punitive damages of $7.5 million. Bundy said he is being harassed.

www.ktvb.com

The video contained in the link explains what's happening.

When asked why St. Luke's and its attorneys did not file a default judgment from the outset of this case, Stidham says they have two reasons:

"One is procedural; because of different steps that need to be taken in the case regarding amendments we were not able to move promptly to default judgment. Now there's also - to be candid - strategic reasons. We believe, and we have alleged in our proceedings, that this is a grift," Stidham said, "A tragic situation regarding this infant was used by Mr. Bundy and the others to raise money, feed the beast that is the People's Rights Network financially, get the publicity, drive up membership in People's Rights Network. We believe that cynical grift is what is behind all of this. And then connect it to now: We believe reason Mr. Bundy didn't appear is because he doesn't want the hood opened up on how this operation works."

Stidham said they want to unveil Bundy's finances and expose what his protest really was. They had an expert assess and review damages and losses due to these protests and ongoing threats.

"I want to make it clear: there were really significant damages - financial - that St. Luke's suffered because of this," Stidham said. "We have an expert report that estimates the loss, immediate loss, to St. Luke's, that includes lost patient visits, disruptions, security costs at $3.5 million. This was not a cost-free harassment. Then if you look at ongoing security concerns for St. Luke's, the number of damages and cost to St. Luke's, you get in the tens of millions of dollars."

I never thought the state would act against him, but the courts did, no need for the feds, but someone had to protect the rights of the hospital and its staff.

Take their money is one way to do it, he won't have much luck crowd funding for the settlement, if anybody does give him money to pay the settlement, then they would be just giving it to some other terrorist anyway, who would use it to cause harm. It's like the money they give Trump for the "cause", they just pissed it down the toilet, if their money actually funded their "cause" then there would be much more trouble.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Georgia police executed climate activist, autopsy results show.

“Tortuguita” Teran, known by his friends in the green movement, was shot and killed by dozens of police officers three months ago in a forested public park to be razed and turned into a police training center called Cop City. He was one of many forest...

www.dailykos.com

 

[doughper]

Idaho sheriff will serve legal docs to Ammon Bundy. St. Luke’s withdraws court request

I remember TV coverage of this back in 2014, and Bundy's army was on the overpass and had the ATF/FBI surrounded. The gov. agencies left.

As the climax of the confrontation approached, militiamen and other Bundy supporters trained their weapons on federal and Las Vegas law enforcement officers.

Conclusions drawn are up to you. Looked to me like these cowboys ran off the US go'ment. And they're not gonna forget it, did they?

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

I remember TV coverage of this back in 2014, and Bundy's army was on the overpass and had the ATF/FBI surrounded. The gov. agencies left.

Conclusions drawn are up to you. Looked to me like these cowboys ran off the US go'ment. And they're not gonna forget it, did they?

Every one of them should still be in prison for that...and never get out.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Holy fucking hypocrisy, Batman....biggs or johnson either one has the nerve to say someone else has caused irreparable damage to the US?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/top-house-republicans-call-on-blinken-to-resign
I'd like to see Blinken tell them both to get fucked, publicly...

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I remember TV coverage of this back in 2014, and Bundy's army was on the overpass and had the ATF/FBI surrounded. The gov. agencies left.

Conclusions drawn are up to you. Looked to me like these cowboys ran off the US go'ment. And they're not gonna forget it, did they?

A helicopter with a minigun in the door would have taken care of Bundy, his buddies and anybody stupid enough to be his human shield. One pass would do the job and no more problem. Cops get off every day of the week for shooting unarmed people, this clown and his armed followers wouldn't raise a legal whisper. He would be forgotten about pretty quickly, except for foxnews, who would martyr them with nightly "freedom" programs where they would accuse FBI agents of murder while hosting every conspiracy nutcase in America. They would create a terrorist movement for profit and stoke as much outrage as possible and drive as many lunatics off the deep end as they could.

Foxnews is why this happened and why these assholes aren't dead already. It's yet another reason to get rid of foxnews and regulate cable like broadcast media. Let Rupert rail in his newspapers against big oppressive government limiting his freedom to destroy the country with bullshit for profit. Hit the fucker with antitrust laws and break up his media empire, he will be dead and in Hell soon enough, but the asshole might still cause a lot of damage before he goes, and he infected his spawn with the same shit attitude.

Murdoch and Musk are what happens when someone like Donald has a brain, they are much more dangerous.

 

[doughper]

He would be forgotten about pretty quickly

Oh, i dunno. If the gov went to such draconian measures, tanks, choppers, miniguns, etc., it'd make
martyrs of them. That's probly one reason why they just retreated. BTW, I saw a docu on that situation a few years
back, It was very compelling. How they'd shot one of the Bundy members alongside a freeway, etc.. Whether
it was an FNN production, I doubt, because other than sports, anything Fox-related I steer clear.

Rupert ... Hit the fucker with antitrust laws and break up his media empire

SOmething needs to be done about him. But like the migration of our manufacturing base to China,
it's too late to do much about it now. The harm's already been done. Murdoch and his NY Post acquisition, FCOL.

Murdoch and Musk are what happens when someone like Donald has a brain, they are much more dangerous.

Great point. I wonder if that FL gov, DeSatanis, isn't that particular Donald. Scary thought. You know
whomever the GOP nominates is going to be a criminal nazi, that's for sure. They seem attracted to criminals.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Let's talk about Facebook and Twitter....

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Maybe if Joe wasn't doing such a good job, he might have more trouble.

Steve Schmidt: No one wants Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden in 2024 election | The Warning

643 views Apr 24, 2023
Steve Schmidt breaks down the recent polling that shows the majority of Americans are not interested in a rematch of Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump in 2024. He explains that despite President Biden’s age, voting for him is the logical choice to take down Trump and the rest of the MAGA movement.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Why even bother to make the threat? The bill will never make it through the senate, never even be close...
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/biden-veto-gop-debt-ceiling-bill-mccarthy

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Why even bother to make the threat? The bill will never make it through the senate, never even be close...
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/biden-veto-gop-debt-ceiling-bill-mccarthy

Considering what is in it, you would think they would like to keep it secret. I figure it would directly fuck 30% of their own base, but they are too stupid and brainwashed to figure it out.

 

[CANON_Grow]

You can count cards when the mechanics of the game are transparent, and you can identify situations (based on past play) that give you a statistical edge.
Our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying large-scale sociopolitical human activity, what becomes “history”, are not. The high incidence of utopian hypothetical models from intelligent, worldly observers suggests this to me.

I was thinking the slots are the better analogy. They’re more like the opaque forces actually driving history. You can’t count cards, since the next event is designed to be nearly random, though a large sample of lever pulls converges on a single loss value: the programmed house take.

The latter does not prove the former, you can identify/understand issues in any scenario but not necessarily have a solution that will prevent them, nor must there only be a single solution (if there is one).

Rather than Vegas, I present the stock market. Nobody can say for certain what happens tomorrow and there is no guarantee that looking at long term history has any relevance to what is happening today. No person or entity can claim to understand how markets will react on any given day, yet there are enough data that some people can identify patterns and use with great success.

 

[cannabineer]

The latter does not prove the former, you can identify/understand issues in any scenario but not necessarily have a solution that will prevent them, nor must there only be a single solution (if there is one).

Rather than Vegas, I present the stock market. Nobody can say for certain what happens tomorrow and there is no guarantee that looking at long term history has any relevance to what is happening today. No person or entity can claim to understand how markets will react on any given day, yet there are enough data that some people can identify patterns and use with great success.

I like your choice of the stock market as a metaphor. However I challenge the bit at the end about identifying truly useful patterns. Consider the pros: hedge-fund managers. They generally do ok, but far underperform the hot edge of the market, and once in a while they crash&burn while the market in general muddles along.

So while every mutual-fund manager has a System, and some do outperform their chosen market segment for a time, more don’t. Almost nobody has durably outperformed the S&P. Over time all their performance matches what one would statistically expect of blind players.

What makes the stock market interesting is that the driver, unlike the slots, is collective psychology. The market is a snapshot of the center of gravity of the perceptions and opinions of millions of players.

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

Considering what is in it, you would think they would like to keep it secret. I figure it would directly fuck 30% of their own base, but they are too stupid and brainwashed to figure it out.

which is why they don't have to hide it..

 

[Roger A. Shrubber]

I like your choice of the stock market as a metaphor. However I challenge the bit at the end about identifying truly useful patterns. Consider the pros: hedge-fund managers. They generally do ok, but far underperform the hot edge of the market, and once in a while they crash&burn while the market in general muddles along.

So while every mutual-fund manager has a System, and some do outperform their chosen market segment for a time, more don’t. Almost nobody has durably outperformed the S&P. Over time all their performance matches what one would statistically expect of blind players.

What makes the stock market interesting is that the driver, unlike the slots, is collective psychology. The market is a snapshot of the center of gravity of the perceptions and opinions of millions of players.

There are also a lot of outside influences on the market, so it's hard to say what it would do on it's own, free from interference.
The fed constantly alters interest rates in the US, and other countries have the analogue to the fed, all making their own adjustments...
https://www.global-rates.com/en/

https://onlinemasters.ohio.edu/blog/the-global-influence-on-the-u-s-stock-market/

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t052-c008-s001-how-overseas-trends-affect-u-s-investors.html
With all of this to keep track of, a committed trader would get very little sleep...and after all their efforts, there are still so many global variables that the best they'll ever do is a half educated guess.