Independents are the largest and most fickle voting block, many lean right. Unfortunately a majority of Americans also believe in replacement theory. Polling appears to be increasingly unreliable, starting with Trump, what they tell the pollsters they are for, they vote against by electing republicans. They quite simply vote against their own personal self interests, in favor of a subconsciously imagined threat to their culture and a fake strong leader to cut through the confusion and get things done.
The poll numbers for gun control are impressive, the election results not so much, if the republicans gain a majority in the house. Not even treason, sedition and insurrection matter much these days and I doubt the J6 hearings will have much of an impact either, the prosecutions should though. Abortion might make some difference and it could all add up by November.
The fickle Indies are GOPers who can't stand their own party and refuse the Democratic moniker. They'll vote Dem though because it's a secret and no one can see their vote in the booth.