War

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All nationalists left Azovstal, they are required to be judged. The main thing about the special operation on May 21
The territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol was abandoned by all the militants of the extremist battalion Azov, who were hiding there, banned in Russia. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky offered to exchange them, Senator of the Federation Council Andriy Klishas called for the Azovites to be brought to justice. URA.RU brings the main news about the special operation in Ukraine by the evening of May 21.

This is how Putin cal sell the war as a win. That and if they can occupy much of the Donbas they can say that is all they wanted and start talking peace.
 

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Slutsky: Russia will consider the exchange of Medvedchuk for the surrendered "Azov"*
Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs and head of the LDPR faction Leonid Slutsky said that the authorities would consider the possible exchange of Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk for Azov fighters (recognized as an extremist organization, banned on the territory of the Russian Federation). He announced this at a press conference in Donetsk.

“We will study the possibility of exchanging Medvedchuk for Azov. [This will be done] by those people in Moscow who have such powers, ”Slutsky answered the question of Interfax.


Got to get back Putin's buddy.
 

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US frustrated over ‘problematic’ NATO ally Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is frustrating the U.S. and its allies by opposing the bid by Sweden and Finland to join NATO. The position is complicating the message of unity the Biden administration wants to send to Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The bids by Sweden and Finland to join the military alliance are historic — and a big defeat for Russia, which does not want them added to the group. The fact that their decision to do so is the result of the Russian war is a point that has been highlighted by U.S. officials.

But the diplomatic victory over Moscow is clouded by Erdoğan’s opposition over charges that the Nordic countries harbor Kurdish terrorist groups. NATO members must unanimously agree to accept the members. There are whispers that Ankara is looking for something — such as U.S. fighter jets — to give its blessing.


Basically cut of the same cloth as Trump. "What's in it for me?"
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Vlad's fundamental error attacking at the very beginning of mud season, now the Ukrainians are much better prepared for it and the Russians suck at maneuver warfare, combined arms and logistics. Not many surviving Russian BTG are up to strength and almost all have been severely mauled by the Ukrainians. I think it is too late for Vlad to take advantage of the dry ground after the Ukrainians are reinforced with western arms and old soviet tanks and guns while much of his army has been chewed up already and almost all of their best and elite units.

From my reading it would appear both the Russian economy and army could collapse in late June or July. The economy from lack of cash and too many bills and the army from lack of men and supplies. The pace of their destruction will only increase in Ukraine in the coming weeks. The Ukrainians expect they might die for their country and can easily absorb losses for a larger cause without damaging morale. It might be costly for them, but I figure when it's all said and done the Russians will lose 2 to 3 times as many dead soldiers as the Ukrainians. Dead civilians are another matter, but even there losses are much less than expected as most evacuated that could.


Dispatch: How Ukraine's warmer weather could now give Russia an advantage
 

DIY-HP-LED

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Better weapons mean fewer Ukrainians dead and the Russians ejected quicker. However Uncle Sam expects a couple of things to happen this summer like the collapse of the Russian army and economy. They obviously don't want to give Ukraine too much technology at least publicly, but are giving them enough to do the job of breaking Russia's back. They want the black sea open and Ukrainian grain flowing though and that requires the south of Ukraine and Crimea. Everybody from Europe to Turkey must be waking up to the energy, economic and trade possibilities Ukrainian control over the western black sea opens up, some European ports and counties won't like the competition.

So I figure the WH and Pentagon think the Russian economy will collapse by summer, at the rate they are losing soldiers in Ukraine they simply will reach the point of military collapse. The same can be said for the Russian economy with tightening sanctions and embargos on their oil and gas, they can sell some, but there are many bills and pensions to pay, Vlad's political base are mostly older people and pensioners.


Russia-Ukraine War l Did US-Supplied Howitzers To Kyiv Lack System To Increase Accuracy & Firepower?
64,571 views May 21, 2022 US-supplied Howitzers to Ukraine are reportedly not equipped with advanced computer systems. The US-made M777 155mm howitzers are now being used by the Ukrainian military to defend itself against Russia. Washington has not denied reports that their artillery systems in Ukraine are not equipped with advanced digital systems. The digital systems in howitzers help the crew accurately target and pinpoint the enemy. If fitted to a Howitzer, the digital computer system enables the crew operating the weapon to quickly attack the enemy. So why did US deny digital systems of Howitzers to Ukraine?
 
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DIY-HP-LED

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A multicultural liberal democracy is the Tartars best shot at returning to Crimea, there should be lot's of vacant Russian property there after the military, government, spies and quislings leave, or are expelled. Liberal democracy comes with the right of return to ancestral homelands for the Tatars, if they can get out of Russia. With a better quality of life, climate and standard of living, many might move from Russia to Crimea in the future.


These Muslim Tatars are Fighting Russian Soldiers in Ukraine
19,238 views May 21, 2022 Crimean Tatars have faced a long history of persecution and ethnic cleansing throughout the Soviet Union. Now, Russia is invading their homeland of Ukraine. Dozens of mainly Tatar Muslims have banded together to form a civilian battalion to fight against Russian troops. When World War II ended, roughly 218,000 Tatars were deported from the Crimean Peninsula. Many of them only returned home recently, just to be forced out again when Russia took control of the Peninsula south of Ukraine in 2014. They are now fighting to liberate all the territories occupied by the Russians so they can find a way back home to the Crimean Peninsula.
 
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printer

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Better weapons mean fewer Ukrainians dead and the Russians ejected quicker. However Uncle Sam expects a couple of things to happen this summer like the collapse of the Russian army and economy. They obviously don't want to give Ukraine too much technology at least publicly, but are giving them enough to do the job of breaking Russia's back. They want the black sea open and Ukrainian grain flowing though and that requires the south of Ukraine and Crimea. Everybody from Europe to Turkey must be waking up to the energy, economic and trade possibilities Ukrainian control over the western black sea opens up, some European ports and counties won't like the competition.

So I figure the WH and Pentagon think the Russian economy will collapse by summer, at the rate they are losing soldiers in Ukraine they simply will reach the point of military collapse. The same can be said for the Russian economy with tightening sanctions and embargos on their oil and gas, they can sell some, but there are many bills and pensions to pay, Vlad's political base are mostly older people and pensioners.


Russia-Ukraine War l Did US-Supplied Howitzers To Kyiv Lack System To Increase Accuracy & Firepower?

Washington has not denied reports that their artillery systems in Ukraine are not equipped with advanced digital systems. The digital systems in howitzers help the crew accurately target and pinpoint the enemy.

Your rosy view of the outcome seems to ignore the fact that the Ukrainians are trying to take over land held by the Russians. And the Ukrainians are saying the Russians are firing three shells to the one from the Ukrainians. While the Russians are just doing a spray and pray approach to shelling, basically flatten everything, they are at an advantage at the moment. They want to encircle the Ukrainians and take the last bit of the Donbas they do not have. The Ukrainians had it easy up north as the Russians were retreating in order to concentrate their forces in the Donbas. No talk of switchblades now, it is an artillery fight now. And the Russians are now concentrating their forces to keep pushing and try and encircle the Ukrainians and cut off their supply like. Right now it is even odds on who will win out, maybe a little more in favor to the Russians.

The economy does not matter for the next three weeks. And the next three weeks might be decisive in the war.
 

printer

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Russia-Ukraine War l Did US-Supplied Howitzers To Kyiv Lack System To Increase Accuracy & Firepower?
64,571 views May 21, 2022 US-supplied Howitzers to Ukraine are reportedly not equipped with advanced computer systems. The US-made M777 155mm howitzers are now being used by the Ukrainian military to defend itself against Russia. Washington has not denied reports that their artillery systems in Ukraine are not equipped with advanced digital systems. The digital systems in howitzers help the crew accurately target and pinpoint the enemy. If fitted to a Howitzer, the digital computer system enables the crew operating the weapon to quickly attack the enemy. So why did US deny digital systems of Howitzers to Ukraine?
The Americans did not want the Russians to get their hands on the advanced system part.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Your rosy view of the outcome seems to ignore the fact that the Ukrainians are trying to take over land held by the Russians. And the Ukrainians are saying the Russians are firing three shells to the one from the Ukrainians. While the Russians are just doing a spray and pray approach to shelling, basically flatten everything, they are at an advantage at the moment. They want to encircle the Ukrainians and take the last bit of the Donbas they do not have. The Ukrainians had it easy up north as the Russians were retreating in order to concentrate their forces in the Donbas. No talk of switchblades now, it is an artillery fight now. And the Russians are now concentrating their forces to keep pushing and try and encircle the Ukrainians and cut off their supply like. Right now it is even odds on who will win out, maybe a little more in favor to the Russians.

The economy does not matter for the next three weeks. And the next three weeks might be decisive in the war.
I saw the reports and expect setbacks, every war has them. I'm looking at the strategic picture more than the tactical one and as far as I can see the Ukrainians are still trading land for advantage, much of it is farmland. If they fight them to their defensive positions and hold them with theirs, then they will move on the southern front. NATO tactical doctrine is not about assaulting dug in positions with frontal attacks, it's about maneuver. If they though they would lose they would be shoveling more arms in and there are several indicators that it might be enough, the focus has shifted to China pretty quickly. My rosy view is predicated on a Russian military and economic collapse and I think it might be influencing the allied view.

The manpower numbers don't add up for the Russians, taking into account their losses and predicted ones which will most likely increase. With their poor morale, logistics, assassination of their officers and disruption of their command and control, it will lower the point of military collapse on a fighting front. There are many other issues the Russians have that have been covered in the thread. So it looks like they are throttling Ukraine to avoid provoking the Russians too much and they figure that increasing their military budget many times over and supplying selective arms will do the job.

Joe signing lend lease in South Korea sent a message to them and China.
 

DIY-HP-LED

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The Americans did not want the Russians to get their hands on the advanced system part.
I don't think it would do the Russians much good if they did get any high tech, though they could pass it off to China and that might be the bigger concern. It could probably mean connecting drones to fire control computers to quickly eliminate targets and also increases speed of deployment etc. With the range advantage and slow Russians it shouldn't make a lot of difference, or so say many experts, nice to have, but not strictly required.

The arms package sent to Ukraine was well thought out in the Pentagon and customized for the terrain they were fighting on. These guns can be air transported which is also a factor in timely delivery and probably easier to train on, because more is similar to the soviet systems they have been using. The EU and America are supporting the Ukrainian economy temporarily, they are planting grain in most of the country and there is a lot more serious talk of seizing Russian money and changing laws to do it if required. Getting Ukrainian grain out will also become an increasing factor in all this mess, as the world food crises deepens.
 

DIY-HP-LED

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Retired general explains the difference in the Russian way of waging war
44,740 views May 21, 2022 Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling reacts to Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine including a missile strike on a cultural center in the Kharkiv region of the country.
 

DIY-HP-LED

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Looks like a precision artillery strike using Excalibur rounds, it appears the first shot was to check the range and was outside the target area. The Russians are nervous and parking snuggled up next to buildings, they should be parked inside them, if they want to hide from drones.
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DIY-HP-LED

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20
May 20, 2022 - Press ISW

Russian forces are focusing on digging in and reinforcing defensive positions in Kharkiv and along the Southern Axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives, while the majority of active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the Popasna-Severodonetsk area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are creating secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis, indicating that the Russian grouping in this area may be preparing for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict.
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21
May 21, 2022 - Press ISW

Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days as efforts on other axes of advance, including Izyum, remain largely stalled. Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast will likely move to capitalize on recent gains made in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Luhansk-Popasna arc to encircle and besiege Severodonetsk—the final Ukrainian strongpoint in Luhansk Oblast. Russian milbloggers are hypothesizing on the success of Russian tactics in the area and have dubbed it the Battle of Severodonetsk—emphasizing that this is the preliminary line of effort in the Donbas theatre.
 

DIY-HP-LED

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Roger A. Shrubber

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if this was a rehearsal, i can't wait for the actual performance....russia is barely holding it's own against a country it is 28 times the size of,
with less than one third of russia's population.
russia couldn't take the capital with a massive surprise attack, and showed the entire world that they are corrupt, incompetent, and barbaric. Ukraine claims to have sunk their navy's flag ship, the russians claimed it sunk because of a fire...either way, the russian navy's flag ship is an artificial reef now...
if i was a producer, i might consider financing this play, if it was presented to me as a comedy...but there is nothing funny about russian warcrimes and atrocities.
 
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