Another Republican President, Another Recession.

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
The Republican argument for the killing the reconciliation bill by Joe Manchin.


50 Republicans and 2 Democrats are stopping Biden and the Democratic party's ability to help heal the issues in the economy that are desperately needed to get us out of this historic recession that Trump and the insurrectionist RINO's have dropped on us all.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Something I have not heard mentioned in any of the talking head commentary is how wages tend to be very sticky to any future decreases. So while the Saudi/Russian's screwing around with gas prices has impacts up and down the supply chain, and other pandemic impacts on the service sector (because who wants to be out dealing with the radicalized masses for low wages) are still going on, those wages are not going to decrease once the price shocks stabilize.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-economy-unemployment-f14fb105865ba6b1a84b5f9277f0f99bScreen Shot 2021-11-05 at 11.07.03 AM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers stepped up their hiring last month, adding a solid 531,000 jobs, the most since July and a sign that the recovery from the pandemic recession is overcoming a virus-induced slowdown.

Friday’s report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% last month from 4.8% in September. That is a comparatively low level though still well above the pre-pandemic jobless rate of 3.5%. And the report showed that the job gains in August and September weren’t as weak as initially reported. The government revised its estimate of hiring for those two months by a hefty combined 235,000 jobs.

All told, the figures in the jobs report point to an economy that is steadily recovering from the pandemic recession, with healthy consumer spending causing companies in nearly every industry to step up hiring. Though the effects of COVID-19 are still causing severe supply shortages, heightening inflation and keeping many people out of the workforce, employers are finding gradually more success in filling near record-high job postings.

“This is the kind of recovery we can get when we are not sidelined by a surge in COVID cases,” said Nick Bunker, director of economic research at the employment website Indeed. “The speed of employment gains has faltered at times this year, but the underlying momentum of the US labor market is quite clear.”

By nearly every barometer, the economic recovery appears solidly on track. Services companies in such areas as retail, banking and warehousing have reported a sharp jump in sales. More Americans bought new homes last month. And consumer confidence rose in October.

At the same time, though, the nation remains 4.7 million jobs short of the number it had before the pandemic flattened the economy in March 2020. The effects of the virus are still discouraging some people from traveling, shopping, eating out and attending entertainment venues.

In October, the pickup in hiring was spread across nearly every major industry, with only government employers reporting a job loss. Shipping and warehousing companies posted a gain of 54,000 jobs. Retailers added 35,000. The battered leisure and hospitality sector, which includes, restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment venues, gained 164,000 jobs. Manufacturers, despite their struggles with supply shortages, added 60,000 jobs, the most since June 2020.

And employers, who have been competing to fill jobs from a diminished pool of applicants, raised wages at a solid clip: Average hourly pay jumped 4.9% in October compared with a year earlier, up from 4.6% the previous month. Even a gain that strong, though, is barely keeping pace with recent surges in consumer inflation.

The number of long-term unemployed — people out of work for six months or more — has fallen sharply in recent months, to 2.3 million in October from 4.2 million in April. That is still double the pre-recession total. But it’s an encouraging sign because employers are typically wary of hiring people who haven’t held jobs for an extended period.

One disappointing note in Friday’s report is that the workforce — the number of people either working or looking for a job — was unchanged in October. That suggested that the reopening of schools in September, the waning of the virus, and the expiration of a $300-a-week federal unemployment supplement have yet to coax many people off the sidelines of the job market in large numbers.

Drawing many people back into the workforce after recessions is typically a prolonged process. There are now 7.4 million people officially out of work — just 1.7 million more than in February 2020, before the pandemic struck the economy. Yet millions more who lost jobs during the recession have given up on their job hunts, and employers might have to raise pay and benefits to draw them back in.

During the first half of the year, the economy grew at a healthy 6.5% annual rate as vaccinations spread and Americans showed themselves more willing to travel, shop, eat out and attend entertainment events. Yet the delta variant held economic growth in the July-September quarter to just a 2% annual rate.

More recent economic gauges have cast a brightening picture. And after several rounds of stimulus checks and other government support payments, Americans as a whole have amassed about $2.5 trillion more in savings than they had before the pandemic. As that money is spent, it will likely fuel further economic activity.

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The Conference Board, a business research group, said that in its October consumer confidence survey, the proportion of Americans who said they planned to buy cars, homes or major appliances all rose. And nearly half the survey respondents said they planned to vacation in the next six months — the highest such proportion since February 2020, before COVID-19 ripped through the economy.

Even so, some companies still can’t find enough workers to fill jobs. Many parents, particularly mothers, haven’t returned to the workforce after having left jobs during the pandemic to care for children or other relatives. Yet there was evidence of a small rebound last month: The proportion of women who were either working or looking for work rose in October after two months of declines.

Surging inflation has cast a dark cloud over the economy since this spring. Higher costs for food, heating oil, rents and furniture have burdened millions of families. Prices rose 4.4% in September compared with 12 months earlier, the sharpest such increase in three decades.

That inflation surge was a key reason why the Federal Reserve announced this week that it would begin winding down the stimulus it has given the economy since the pandemic recession struck last year. The Fed will do so by reducing its monthly bond purchases, which have been intended to hold down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-congress-263678efec1b19d3fd22aa660ecd4544Screen Shot 2021-11-06 at 8.13.21 AM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House approved a $1 trillion package of road and other infrastructure projects after Democrats resolved a months-long standoff between progressives and moderates, notching a victory that President Joe Biden and his party had become increasingly anxious to claim.

The House passed the measure 228-206 late Friday, prompting prolonged cheers from the relieved Democratic side of the chamber. Thirteen Republicans, mostly moderates, supported the legislation while six of Democrats’ farthest left members — including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri — opposed it.

Approval of the bill, which would create legions of jobs and improve broadband, water supplies and other public works, whisked it to the desk of a president whose approval ratings have dropped and whose nervous party got a cold shoulder from voters in this week’s off-year elections.

Democratic gubernatorial candidates were defeated in Virginia and squeaked through in New Jersey, two blue-leaning states. Those setbacks made party leaders — and moderates and progressives alike — impatient to produce impactful legislation and demonstrate they know how to govern. Democrats can ill afford to seem in disarray a year before midterm elections that could result in Republicans regaining congressional control.

Simply freeing up the infrastructure measure for final congressional approval was a like a burst of adrenaline for Democrats. Yet despite the win, Democrats endured a setback when they postponed a vote on a second, even larger bill until later this month.

That 10-year, $1.85 trillion measure bolstering health, family and climate change programs was sidetracked after moderates demanded a cost estimate on the sprawling measure from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The postponement dashed hopes that the day would produce a double-barreled win for Biden with passage of both bills.

But in an evening breakthrough brokered by Biden and House leaders, five moderates later agreed to back that bill if CBO’s estimates are consistent with preliminary numbers that White House and congressional tax analysts have provided. The agreement, in which lawmakers promised to vote on the social and environment bill by the week of Nov. 15, stood as a significant step toward a House vote that could ultimately ship it to the Senate.

“Generations from now, people will look back and know this is when America won the economic competition for the 21st Century,” Biden said in a written statement early Saturday.

The president and first lady Jill Biden delayed plans to travel Friday evening to their house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. Instead, Biden spoke to House leaders, moderates and progressives, said a White House official who described the conversations on condition of anonymity.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said Biden even called her mother in India, though it was unclear why.

“This was not to bribe me, this is when it was all done,” Jayapal told reporters. The lawmaker said her mother told her she “just kept screaming like a little girl.”

In a two-sentence statement, the five moderates said that if the fiscal estimates on the social and environment bill raise problems, “we remain committed to working to resolve any discrepancies” to pass it. The five included Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., leader of a group of centrists who this summer repeatedly pressured House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to schedule earlier votes on the infrastructure bill.

In exchange, progressives agreed to back the infrastructure measure, which they’d spent months holding hostage in an effort to pressure moderates to back the larger bill.

The day marked a rare detente between Democrats’ moderate and progressive wings that party leaders hope will continue this fall. The rival factions have spent recent weeks accusing each other of jeopardizing Biden’s and the party’s success by overplaying their hands and expressed a deep distrust of each other.

But Friday night, Jayapal suggested they would work together moving forward.

“Let me tell you, we’re going to trust each other because the Democratic Party is together on this. We are united that it is important for us to get both bills done,” she said.

The agreement came together after the White House issued a statement from Biden explicitly urging Democrats to support both bills. “I am confident that during the week of November 15, the House will pass the Build Back Better Act,” he said.

When party leaders announced early in the day that the social and environment measure would be delayed, the scrambled plans cast a fresh pall over the party.

Democrats have struggled for months to take advantage of their control of the White House and Congress by advancing their top priorities. That’s been hard, in part because of Democrats’ slender majorities, with bitter internal divisions forcing House leaders to miss several self-imposed deadlines for votes.

“Welcome to my world,” Pelosi told reporters, adding, “We are not a lockstep party.”

Progressives had long demanded that the two massive bills be voted on together to pressure moderates to support the larger, more expansive social measure.

Democrats’ day turned tumultuous early after a half-dozen moderates demanded the CBO cost estimate of the sprawling package of health, education, family and climate change initiatives before they would vote for it.

Party leaders said that would take days or more. But with Friday’s delayed vote and lawmakers leaving town for a week’s break, those budget estimates should be ready by the time a vote is held.

The infrastructure measure cleared the Senate in August with bipartisan support. The package would provide huge sums for highway, mass transit, broadband, airport, drinking and waste water, power grids and other projects.

But it became a pawn in the long struggle for power between progressives and moderates. Early Friday, Jayapal said the White House and Congress’ nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation had provided all the fiscal information lawmakers needed for the broad bill. She suggested that progressives would oppose the infrastructure bill unless the two measures were voted on together.

But that changed after the two Democratic factions reached their agreement.

House passage of the social and environment package would send it to the Senate, where it faces certain changes and more Democratic drama. That’s chiefly because of demands by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona to contain the measure’s costs and curb or drop some of its initiatives.

Moderates have forced leaders to slash the roughly 2,100-page measure to around half its original $3.5 trillion size. Republicans oppose it as too expensive and damaging to the economy.

The package would provide large numbers of Americans with assistance to pay for health care, raising children and caring for elderly people at home. The package would provide $555 billion in tax breaks encouraging cleaner energy and electric vehicles. Democrats added provisions in recent days restoring a new paid family leave program and work permits for millions of immigrants.

Much of the package’s cost would be covered with higher taxes on wealthier Americans and large corporations.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
"Did I hear a laugh over there? Did I hear a laugh from the people who voted to add 2 trillion in debt in order to give the richest people in America a tax cut?"

 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/upshot/jobs-numbers-stagflation-scare.html
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The story of the American labor market is less murky than it seemed just a few weeks ago. The new jobs numbers Friday present a straightforward, sunny view: Despite it all — the virus variants, the reopening struggles — Americans are going back to work at a rapid clip.

It may not be the kind of off-the-charts job growth experienced in the initial reopening surge last spring and summer. But the new numbers undermine stories that the jobs recovery has petered out, or that the inflationary surge of the last several months is giving way to a period of “stagflation” — stagnant growth paired with higher prices.

Stagnant economies don’t add 531,000 jobs in a month, and they don’t exhibit a low and rapidly falling unemployment rate — 4.6 percent in October, down from 4.8 percent in September and 6.3 percent at the start of the year.

But perhaps more important is what the new numbers tell us about the dynamics of the job market going back a couple of months.

The Labor Department’s revisions to the August and September reports added 235,000 jobs to those months’ numbers. The three-month average for job growth now stands at 442,000. That is a substantial fade from the recent peak of 889,000 jobs added per month from May through July. But it is still a robust pace that implies the labor market is gradually healing from the scars of the pandemic.

The same basic trend is evident in the data from the survey of households that generates the unemployment rate and related data.
The drop of two-tenths of a percentage point in the October jobless rate might not sound like much, but consider this: In the last expansion, the United States achieved 4.8 percent unemployment in January 2016 — but didn’t reach 4.6 percent until more than a year later, in February 2017.

There are lots of signs that this is a hyper-speed recovery compared with the last one. The share of workers 25 to 54 who are employed jumped 0.3 percentage points in October.

In the last year, that share has risen to 78.3 percent from 76 percent. That same shift took about four and a half years in the last expansion, from September 2012 to February 2017.

Put simply, for all the discussion of labor shortages, and the fact that the share of adults who are part of the labor force has remained well below prepandemic levels, employers keep managing to find people to take jobs. The latest numbers undermine any narrative that the pandemic has caused large masses of people to leave the work force permanently, whether because of government stimulus benefits or personal factors.

Employers are paying more to get those workers, it’s worth noting. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers were up 0.4 percent in October, and are up 4.9 percent over the last year. That is high by recent standards, but probably a bit below the inflation rate in that span. (October inflation numbers are not out yet, but for the 12 months ended in September the Consumer Price Index was up 5.4 percent.)

The wage story looks better for rank-and-file American workers. Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees have risen 5.8 percent over the last year, which is likely to be higher than inflation was over that span. That is the steepest one-year gain since 1982, other than a couple of months early in the pandemic that featured statistical aberrations.

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In short, in order to achieve these gains in employment, companies are being forced to pay significantly higher wages, especially for people at the lower end of the pay scale. To what degree those pay raises turn out to be enough to overcome elevated inflation is an open question that depends on inflation trends in the months ahead.

It seems clear that the era of high inflation and supply shortages is causing public discontent with the state of the economy, with a possible role in President Biden’s low approval rating and election results in Virginia and New Jersey this week.

There’s no doubt inflation is causing real pain, especially for people whose wages have not kept up with rising prices. But the central problem of the 2010s — a glacial recovery that put people back to work too slowly — is not the reality of the 2020s recovery.

The new numbers point to a one-sided economic problem — high inflation and its attendant problems — not a two-sided one in which high inflation and stagnant growth are both causing people pain.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member

The kid murderer thread is now home to all the trolls trying like hell to sell the right wing domestic terrorist poster boy the main story.

And if that fails you have Cruz talking shit about Big Bird, Goessart tweeting out muder porn of him and AOC/Biden, Hawley talking about porn being a liberal agenda, on and on.

All to keep focus away from the policy wins that the Democrats and Biden have had in helping our nation succeed.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member

194,000 (before revisions which were all upward during Biden's presidency) in September and 531,000 in October, put's Biden at about 5.2 million jobs since he took over the office of the presidency 9 months ago.

Shit that puts him on pace to have about 27,700,000 in 4 years, which would be more than Clinton had in 8, which is bigger than anyone else since Truman at least. Things likely will slow down, but still.

Pretty impressive, wonder if the right wing will be able to con their cult into thinking that it would be a smart move to put the Republicans in charge again to cause another recession like they have been doing for over 100 years.
 

mooray

Well-Known Member
194,000 (before revisions which were all upward during Biden's presidency) in September and 531,000 in October, put's Biden at about 5.2 million jobs since he took over the office of the presidency 9 months ago.

Shit that puts him on pace to have about 27,700,000 in 4 years, which would be more than Clinton had in 8, which is bigger than anyone else since Truman at least. Things likely will slow down, but still.

Pretty impressive, wonder if the right wing will be able to con their cult into thinking that it would be a smart move to put the Republicans in charge again to cause another recession like they have been doing for over 100 years.
Hate to say it, but the transfer or wealth happens in waves with each economic "cycle" and they crush it when they break things and crush it again when Dems fix things. Markets don't necessarily need to go up to make money, they just needs to move, and it's always easier to make it go down than up. They're really good at flushing our cash down the drain and plumbing it into their hands.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Hate to say it, but the transfer or wealth happens in waves with each economic "cycle" and they crush it when they break things and crush it again when Dems fix things. Markets don't necessarily need to go up to make money, they just needs to move, and it's always easier to make it go down than up. They're really good at flushing our cash down the drain and plumbing it into their hands.
Luckily though we are starting to have enough data from all the Republican recessions in the last 60 years to understand their economic shenanigans.

The big challenge is to start figuring out what they are going to try to use to keep their ability to tank the economy next. The 90's saw them turning up the propaganda campaign and solidifying their hold on hate radio and tv against the Democratic party. The 2000's added to it the internet attack on our society and fanatical increase in religion and racism politicization. Then after Obama it was using this to ramp up their astroturf Tea Party state election so that they could gerrymander themselves into power for the next decade. Which ultimately got hijacked by Trump and the Russian military to sneak him into office and radicalization of our citizens being isolated and sucked into online information bubbles.

And now we look to be in another decade of gerrymandering to go along with the court stuffing.

What is the next Republican con? Where do they go from here. I hope that they die off and have to rebuild as a non-troll party, but it is not looking good if there is no real change happening in the online propaganda war that is being waged on us.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/14/inflation-prices-supply-chain/
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The bumpy economic recovery has had policymakers, economists and Americans at large grappling with greater price hikes for groceries, gas, cars, rent and just about everything else we need.

For months, officials at the Federal Reserve and White House have argued that pandemic-era inflation won’t become a permanent feature of the economy, and that prices will simmer back down as the economy has time to heal. The hope was that inflation would have started cooling down by now.

But persistent supply chain backlogs and, most recently, the delta variant of the coronavirus, have kept prices elevated. There is no clear answer for when that will change, leaving Americans to feel the strain in their pocketbooks in the meantime. This is a breakdown of how we got here.

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Policymakers were encouraged when August prices eased slightly, breaking an eight-month streak of rising or steady inflation. But September reversed course, coming in at 5.4 percent compared to the year before, in large part due to the rapidly spreading delta variant stifling the recovery. Now October showed even shaper inflation, with prices rising 6.2 percent compared to the year before.

Economists caution against drawing too much from one month of data, good or bad. But the overall picture increasingly suggests that inflation is sticking around longer than economic policymakers at the Fed and White House anticipated just a few months ago.

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Policymakers often argue that price increases are limited to industries like hotels, airlines and cars. But federal data on Wednesday showed “broad-based” higher prices, propelled by not just energy and used cars, but by shelter, food and new vehicles. Prices for medical care, for household furnishing and operations, and for recreation all increased in October.

The concerns over soaring home prices and rising rents have economists worried about whether cost increases will last even after the pandemic has mostly passed. The still hot housing market has made it that much more difficult for first-time buyers, or those without cash or solid credit, to buy a home. Meanwhile, rising rents in major metropolitan areas are pushing out more people who are now wondering if they can afford to stay.

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The market relies heavily on trade-ins and auto parts, which have been in low supply amid a global microchip shortage.
That pinch has made it more expensive for dealers to get any of their models, much less repair them. All of those problems are also hurting the supply of used cars, which depend on trade ins as well as rental car company inventories.

Meanwhile, the pandemic triggered a massive rental car shortage after a slew of large companies sold off hundreds of thousands of models that sat idle at the start of the pandemic as Americans stopped traveling. Back in May of this year, more than one of every three rental cars that had been in service before the pandemic was no longer available.

However, as more people got vaccinated and started itching for spring and summer trips, customer demand boomed. Companies could not get their hands on cars fast enough, driving up prices while people scrambled for reservations and companies rushed to restock lots.

New cars are now also seeing rising prices thanks to the ongoing microchip shortage. Pandemic-related shutdowns have pinched factories around the world. For instance, auto production in North America was recently slowed by shutdowns in countries like Malaysia and Vietnam.

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Families across the nation are also facing higher prices at the grocery store, which have people stretching their wallets for dairy, fruits and vegetables, baked goods and meats. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs have surged in particular above other grocery categories. The White House has pointed to broad consolidation in the meat industry, saying that large companies bear some of the responsibility for pushing prices higher.

Meat industry groups disagree, arguing that the same supply-side issues rampant in the rest of the economy apply to proteins because it costs more to transport and package materials, while labor shortages have held back meat production.
I think this chart is going to be the one that is most useful in seeing how inflation is going to go.

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The decrease in October from last year's Republican led recession is showing up this month in a bigger increase. November should also see a bit larger inflation rate, and then it should start to decline before it starts to drastically decrease in May 2022 and start to move through the larger inflation rates.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
so you guys are a lot smarter than me about the US economy:

i need some talking points about inflation. what biden policies are raising it? if any?

i felt like prices on many items went way up when trump declared a tariff war on china.
Trick question.

During the first year of any president, inflation, jobs growth, GDP, and most of the budget are mostly due to actions taken during the previous administration. 6% (annualized) inflation this month? Thank you Trump.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
so you guys are a lot smarter than me about the US economy:

i need some talking points about inflation. what biden policies are raising it? if any?

i felt like prices on many items went way up when trump declared a tariff war on china.
Well if Biden was to have done the Republican playbook that was championed by Reagan, where Volker in the Federal reserve jacked up interest rates halting any new economic activity in new business investment and home building (Homes that after 30 years were being sold by the white people who got those cheap as shit federal loans), which is also when all those manufacturing jobs started moving overseas.

Hammered the workers ability to use the inflation to increase their wages through union busting. Ending the federal mental health system costing how many people their jobs, ect. All of which drastically increased the unemployment rates (especially in minority areas) that meant there was less pressure on supply due to people not having any money.

This halt in economic activity stopped the inflation cold.

I am pretty happy Biden did not go down this route, and instead stabilized the economy and is not freaking out trying to kill inflation at the expense of all of us. It might mean that the wealthiest in our nation won't be able to vacuum up all those distressed properties, and (gasp) actually have to increase wages.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/opinion/reagan-social-welfare.htmlScreen Shot 2021-11-11 at 9.05.45 AM.png
With Build Back Better, President Biden has attempted to revive a New Deal ethic that entwines human and physical infrastructure. No one likes taxes, but building a nation where Americans know that their families are safe and cared for is popular across party lines. It shouldn’t have been a hard sell.

But here we are. The reconciliation package has shrunk to about $2 trillion. And something else is gone: a chance to change the American narrative of what good government does. The legislation was once billed as a plan for sweeping once-in-a-generation social change, but aspects of it that warranted that hyperbole, like dental and vision coverage for Medicare recipients and free community college, have disappeared. Paid family and medical leave have been sharply reduced.

Other industrialized nations provide a far more robust safety net than the one we have and even the one Mr. Biden proposed. Yet Republicans and at least one Democrat insist that such social welfare spending endangers the nation’s fiscal and moral health.

How did we get to a point that doing less for Americans is a virtue, and comprehensive social welfare a privilege?

It goes back to Jan. 20, 1981. On that cold, windy day, Ronald Reagan, who had scoffed at mythical female welfare cheats on the campaign trail, a trope he had revisited since his 1966 campaign for governor of California, took the oath of office. The defeated Democratic President Jimmy Carter, also on the dais, shared some of Mr. Reagan’s distaste for social spending. During his presidency, Mr. Carter charged Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare Joseph Califano Jr. with creating “pro-work and pro-family” rules for recipients (though they never went through).

Mr. Reagan went further. In his inaugural speech, he linked government itself to national decline. The economic crisis of the 1970s, he declared, was “proportionate to the intervention and intrusion in our lives that result from unnecessary and excessive growth of government.” Social programs were wasteful. Worse, they lured families into dependence.

In other words: The government that helps families most helps them least. It was an idea that became an American ethic, with staying power through Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Attacks on social programs portrayed poverty as a moral failure and exploited racist stereotypes to mischaracterize social welfare as a magnet for criminal, failed and indolent Americans. The belief that successful families helped themselves remained an article of faith in both parties until the socialist Senator Bernie Sanders ran for president.

Under Mr. Reagan, conservatives were finally able to begin dismantling the New Deal state and Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society. In 1981 and 1982, Mr. Reagan made more than $22 billion in cuts to social welfare programs, including federal student loans and the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act, a modest program that paid businesses to train and hire economically disadvantaged people.

The federal deficit grew anyway, as Mr. Reagan cut taxes and accelerated military spending. Inheriting a national debt of about $995 billion, he nearly tripled it. But conservative activists still cheered.

In fact, Mr. Reagan’s welfare reforms just made the poor poorer. When a three-year recession hit in 1980, six million more Americans fell into poverty. By 1989, employment recovered, but a weak social safety net meant that workers were an illness or an accident away from hardship.

Democrats were complicit. In 1992, although he would try (but fail) to pass national health care, Bill Clinton promised to “end welfare as we know it.” Looking to a second term, he later blasted big government. The bipartisan Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 put mothers to work at low-wage jobs without health care benefits, linked food aid to work, established a five-year lifetime limit on benefits paid by federal money and funded sexual abstinence programs, not reproductive health. By 1999, single mothers on “workfare” had sunk deeper into poverty.

Progressive Democrats did only marginally better. In 2012, Republicans accused President Barack Obama of unwindingdecades of welfare-to-work provisions, with a new system of waivers, work requirements and block grants that states had to follow. And while his Affordable Care Act passed narrowly, under pressure from both parties, he abandoned universal health care.

Today the poverty rate hovers around 11 percent, about where it was in 1973, and economic insecurity now envelops the working poor and middle class. Some economists now argue that the misery caused by decades of failure to support working families paved the way for Donald Trump’s presidency.

That may be true. Left to fend for themselves in poorly regulated markets, by default, working Americans do care for themselves — often on credit. Medical debt was recently pegged at $140 billionand student loans at over $1.7 trillion. Thirteen million workershave more than one job.

Americans work hard, but in the United States it costs money even to go to work. Child care, if parents can find it, can cost more than a mortgage payment. Elder care? Even more. Despite the Affordable Care Act, 28 million Americans are left uninsured.

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