Other than personal observation and the behavior of other seasonal viruses like cold and flu. In meat packing plants social distancing and lack of safety measures were a big issue, but the recent outbreak in a German meat packing plant is cause for concern, I'm pretty sure they had strict measures in place there. There is also hard evidence on how long the bug lasts under different conditions and temps, it survives best near freezing if I recall, that's how they preserve samples, refrigerate them. It all amounts to conjecture on my part, but these are my reasons for the opinion.
Airborne spread is the biggest culprit and if everybody wore a mask in public and at work along with testing we can keep it in check. My concern is cold temps make outside spread more likely (a hockey game in a cold arena!) Also people will be spending more time inside and it will spread more seasonally like cold and flu, for the same reasons.
Hear anything about that spartan cube thing? It would make nail salons and hair places much safer to operate, so would mandatory masks and waiting in your car until called on yer phone etc. Dougie ordered a million of the fucking things alone, they ain't gonna be much use this time next year I figure.