abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Citation required. You're making a definite claim regarding numbers, I want proof.
Lockdowns work.
- Thread starter rkymtnman
- Start date
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
Law of large numbers
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Cause some smart guy said so...
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
you wanted a citation then you got upset when I gave you one
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
You're the one who's upset and trying to spread the notion that I'm having a mental breakdown. By all means though, please expound on how you can simply infer that the lockdowns have made the viral spread 20% of what it would have been simply because of "the law of large numbers". I am genuinely interested.
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
Here we go. UncleBuck has offered to show us this illusive proof that the lockdowns are working.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
no I do
It has to do with multiplication though and I’m not sure if you’re familiar with the concept
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
I challenge you to honestly explicate my arguments in the other lockdown thread, instead of just trolling because they make you upset. Just read the arguments, they're full of nuance and science and examples. You have time, you're enjoying the lockdown. Read the whole thread, take your time, find the flaws in my arguments carefully. I genuinely hope you can show me, honestly, where I'm wrong.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
ok
My wife and child had the exact symptoms of covid a month ago. I stayed home despite having zero symptoms and exposed myself to zero people
If I went out and exposed myself to a dozen co workers and another dozen grocery store workers and another several dozen grocery store shoppers, what would the end result have been
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
I'm not suggesting you do those things, unless you need to buy supplies, in which case you should wear a mask and regularly wash your hands. In fact, everyone should be practicing such things. Especially grocery store workers. Furthermore, you should assume that everyone is a carrier, including yourself. These are basic guidelines, that's why the WHO changed its stance yet again on masks.
Fogdog
Well-Known Member
The epidemic isn't due to Trump. His fuckups made the lockdowns necessary, though. The caravaners are idiots who just made their own situations worse by ignoring the lockdown orders. A few will end up dead for it. I'm ok with that. They are fucking it up for the rest of us by being stupid asses.
I posted the figures that pretty much say lockdowns work whether you choose to acknowledge it or not. Personally, I think you are just arguing for the sake of it.
UncleBuck
Well-Known Member
if lockdowns don’t work then why shouldn’t I have exposed more people to covid rather than less (zero) people?
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
No, I genuinely disagree with it. Those gains can be explained by the other factors. I agree with the rest of this comment though.
hanimmal
Well-Known Member
There is no accurate numbers of this pandemic. But the science is out there on the last time our country dealt with something similar to this, and had a really good example.
https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic
Richard J. Hatchett, Carter E. Mecher, and Marc Lipsitch
PNAS May 1, 2007 104 (1
7582-7587; first published April 6, 2007 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610941104
https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic
Richard J. Hatchett, Carter E. Mecher, and Marc Lipsitch
PNAS May 1, 2007 104 (1
7582-7587; first published April 6, 2007 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610941104- Edited by Burton H. Singer, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved February 14, 2007 (received for review December 9, 2006)
rkymtnman
Well-Known Member
Seems like more proof that lockdowns work:
Sweden (no lockdown) now has more covid cases than all other Scandinavian countries (lockdowns) combined.
care to explain @abandonconflict
Sweden (no lockdown) now has more covid cases than all other Scandinavian countries (lockdowns) combined.
care to explain @abandonconflict
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Rob Roy
Well-Known Member
So, you're fiiiiiinally fessing up!!? It must have taken some courage for you to admit this.
After the laughter stopped, were you arrested?
abandonconflict
Well-Known Member
They had human to human transmission before any of them. Swedish patient zero flew straight in from Wuhan on the 24th of January. I know that is news to you, but I was actually paying attention to the Wu-flu at that point, when people were making silly comments and memes and shitposting in my thread about it.
The nature of viral spreads is geometric. So when cases are doubling every certain number of days, a place can see such growth if it had a very long headstart. New York had 328 cases only 36 days ago. Their curve still isn't flat and it's in the tens of thousands of new cases per day. They have one of ths strictest lockdowns in the world. Aside from that, the Swedes seem to believe that their healthcare capacity is ready to absorb it. They are certainly absorbing it better than New York is.