Lockdowns don't work.

doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
Death toll soars after NYC counts 'probable' fatalities
NEW YORK (AP) — The official death toll from the coronavirus soared in New York City on Tuesday after health authorities began including people who probably had COVID-19, but died without ever being tested.
Officials reported 3,778 “probable” deaths, where doctors were certain enough of the cause of death to list it on the death certificate, and 6,589 confirmed by a lab test. Combined, that would put the total fatalities in the city over 10,000.
www.sfgate.com

Death toll soars after NYC counts 'probable' fatalities

NEW YORK (AP) - The official death toll from the coronavirus soared in New York City on Tuesday after health authorities began including people who probably had COVID-19, but died without ever being tested. Officials reported 3,778 "probable" deaths, where doctors were certain enough of the...
www.sfgate.com www.sfgate.com

and this is just New York... :shock:
 
Johnny Lawrence

Johnny Lawrence

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
I tested negative a couple months ago but I had a bunch of clients (I'm a scuba tour operator) who stayed in the same resort that the first confirmed case in my area stayed in. It was pretty mild but I did lose my sense of smell for a while. A maid at the resort died recently, ostensibly of heart issues that arose from acute pericarditis.

I can't get access to an antibody test. My wife had a slight fever for 7 days around the time I was sick too. Subsequent this illness, I did maybe 100 dives, even took people diving for free. Nobody cared because I had tested negative.
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My girlfriend came back from the Day Zero festival down in Tulum in late January. She mentioned in a text that there were a lot of people there who had a cold. By the time she was on a flight back, she had developed one. Within a few days of getting back to SD, she had a really bad cold that had her take off some time from work. A couple days later we were at urgent care getting her scanned. She had pneumonia. It wasn't bad, so they sent her home. She recovered about five days later.

Here's the thing. I'm really susceptible to colds. I took care of her from the minute she got back from Mex. I didn't get sick. About two weeks later, I developed a really bad cold. Took me about a week to shake it. Neither of us has had the chance to be tested for antibodies.
 
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abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
see above :roll:
Click to expand...
OK, so if you double the death rate, yes, you get a higher "case fatality rate". What I am saying and I am just telling you the definitions that actual epidemiologists use here, is that case fatality rate is not the same as "infection fatality rate". So even if you double the deaths and get a higher case fatality rate, that is not what @Johnny Lawrence is talking about. The studies have shown that 6% of cases worldwide are actually confirmed. So even if you double the number of deaths, you have to multiply the number of cases by more than 16.

That brings the fatality rate way down.

That's still only applicable if you assume those deaths are covid. They're not tested. So it seems to me you have to take this metric:

there were more than 8,000 non-coronavirus deaths reported within NYC from March 11-April 13. For comparison, the city health department confirmed there were 5,167 deaths during that same time span last year — meaning there would've been a sudden, nearly 66 percent spike in deaths unrelated to the pandemic year-over-year, which would be unheard of.
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www.nbcnewyork.com

NYC Reports Thousands of Additional Deaths, City Toll Tops 10K Despite Signs of Hope

New York’s daily death toll surged back near 800 Tuesday, a day after falling below 700 for the first time in a week, while its coronavirus caseload surpassed 200,000, according to the state’s Department of Health. Still, Gov. Andrew Cuomo pointed to signs of optimism as total hospitalizations...
www.nbcnewyork.com www.nbcnewyork.com

In 3 days, 1800+ people died more than would have otherwise and were reported as noncovid. Even if you count all of those and effectively almost double the fatality rate (which would be a vast over-estimation and fool-hardy assumption), we're still going to find that the infection fatality rate is a tiny fraction of the case fatality rate.

With that said, I agree that the case fatality rate is higher than reported, but the infection fatality rate is very low.
 
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doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
OK, so if you double the death rate, yes, you get a higher "case fatality rate". What I am saying and I am just telling you the definitions that actual epidemiologists use here, is that case fatality rate is not the same as "infection fatality rate". So even if you double the deaths and get a higher case fatality rate, that is not what @Johnny Lawrence is talking about. The studies have shown that 6% of cases worldwide are actually confirmed. So even if you double the number of deaths, you have to multiply the number of cases by more than 16.

That brings the fatality rate way down.

That's still only applicable if you assume those deaths are covid. They're not tested. So it seems to me you have to take this metric:


www.nbcnewyork.com

NYC Reports Thousands of Additional Deaths, City Toll Tops 10K Despite Signs of Hope

New York’s daily death toll surged back near 800 Tuesday, a day after falling below 700 for the first time in a week, while its coronavirus caseload surpassed 200,000, according to the state’s Department of Health. Still, Gov. Andrew Cuomo pointed to signs of optimism as total hospitalizations...
www.nbcnewyork.com www.nbcnewyork.com

In 3 days, 1800+ people died more than would have otherwise and were reported as noncovid. Even if you count all of those and effectively double the fatality rate, we're still going to find that the infection fatality rate is a tiny fraction of the case fatality rate.

With that said, I agree that the case fatality rate is higher than reported, but the infection fatality rate is very low.
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I'm not ready to die for dead leader....fuck the stock market. I didn't survive 1 year in vietnam to get killed by some virus so fat cats on wall street don't loose a few bucks....
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
This page is updated daily as new information emerges. It sets out the current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) estimates, the country-specific issues affecting the CFR, and provides a current best estimate of the CFR, and more importantly, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).

The IFR estimates the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group).
Click to expand...
www.cebm.net

Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers.
www.cebm.net www.cebm.net
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Johnny Lawrence said:
My girlfriend came back from the Day Zero festival down in Tulum in late January. She mentioned in a text that there were a lot of people there who had a cold. By the time she was on a flight back, she had developed one. Within a few days of getting back to SD, she had a reall bad cold that her take off some time from work. A couple days later we were at urgent care getting her scanned. She had pneumonia. It wasn't bad, so they sent her home. She recovered about five days later.

Here's the thing. I'm really susceptible to colds. I took care of her from the minute she got back from Mex. I didn't get sick. About two weeks later, I developed a really bad cold. Took me about a week to shake it. Neither of us has had the chance to be tested for antibodies.
Click to expand...
We won't know the R0 or the total estimated number of infected for years so projecting the number of fatalities is absolutely futile, but I do think that some of those deaths should be attributed to covid and aren't and won't be.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
I earned my right to walk free. Lock the young up, they haven't earned the right yet. Let them stay home so I shall live...respect your elders. wash your hands and stay home
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I'm sure this sounds cool to some people but inalienable human rights are not earned privileges. You went to war, ostensibly to defend that. I did too. I have been in many pitch battles from 2002-2004 with the airborne infantry in A-stan and Iraq. I think you're just being irrational.

We were discussing this and then you segued into what you think your rights are. Respect reason.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
Many experts are now calling for exactly the sort of thing I was describing as a strategy for opening the economy back up. They want to expand testing and contact tracing.


www.npr.org

How Contact Tracing Works And How It Can Help Reopen The Country

It's a technique widely used in other countries to slow the spread of infection. Here's how contact tracing works — and how it can help the U.S. start to get back to normal.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
 
doublejj

doublejj

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
Many experts are now calling for exactly the sort of thing I was describing as a strategy for opening the economy back up. They want to expand testing and contact tracing.


www.npr.org

How Contact Tracing Works And How It Can Help Reopen The Country

It's a technique widely used in other countries to slow the spread of infection. Here's how contact tracing works — and how it can help the U.S. start to get back to normal.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
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it will be months before we have enough tests to be effective
 
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